System Dynamics and Quantitative Methods for the Analysis of Societal Threats

Dear Colleagues,

Recent years have seen threats to societal and democratic values such as online election manipulation, radicalization, “normalization” of extreme behavior, and the re-emergence of racist phenomena across all spectrums of social life. Thus, it has become critical to design policies that mitigate these threats without producing unintended consequences or infringing on fundamental rights like the right to free speech and privacy.

We believe that solving these issues could benefit from the application of quantitative and simulation methods regardless of whether such concepts are not easily quantified. Examples of such approaches are neither new nor isolated. For example, Sandberg (2000) used System Dynamics to investigate the routes of democracy’s global diffusion from 1800 until 2000. Stave (2002) used simulation to illustrate how public participation in environmental decisions can be improved, while Hirsch et al. (2007) modeled how educational reform can impact society.

The methodology is not limited to such general societal issues; specific problems are also addressed. Armenia and Sellito asserted that quantitative methods can be used to detect acts of opinion manipulation in online forums (2014), Armenia and Tsaples (2017) use epidemiological models to analyze how individual behavior can help or hinder the diffusion of cyber threats and finally, Pruyt et al. (2015) used System Dynamics to help policymakers design and test the effectiveness of policies addressed to mitigate the consequences of foreign fighters.

Moreover, such issues are not addressed only through simulation and System Dynamics. Armenia and Sellitto (2014) outlined a framework that combines simulation, network analysis and control theory with the purpose of supporting regional impact analysis. Finally, other methodologies such as Game Theory have a long tradition of dealing with issues from voting (Brams, 2008); (Kling, Kunegis, Hartmann, Strohmaier, & Staab, 2015) to designing strategies to search communities in networks (Narayanam & Narahari, 2012).

The Special Issue is focused on the application of such methods to subjects that lie in the intersection of society and democracy. Papers are sought that use these methods in, but not limited to, the following areas:

• Radicalization and measures to prevent it
• Online bullying
• Online meddling of elections
• Racism in society and racism in sports

Methods could include but are not limited to the following:

• Game theory
• Graph theory
• System dynamics
• Agent-based modeling
• Hybrid approaches and combinations of all the above

Dr. Stefano Armenia
Dr. George Tsaples
Dr. Eduardo Ferreira Franco
Guest Editors

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• Societal Issues
• Society and democracy
• Quantitative methods Simulation