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Article

Trends in Swimming Competence Among Youth: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study (2020–2024)

by
Dražen Rastovski
1,
Dajana Zoretic
2 and
Marko Đurović
3,*
1
Faculty of Education, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University in Osijek, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
2
Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
3
Faculty of Sport and Physical Education, University of Niš, 18000 Niš, Serbia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Youth 2025, 5(4), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/youth5040117
Submission received: 10 September 2025 / Revised: 25 October 2025 / Accepted: 29 October 2025 / Published: 4 November 2025
Versions Notes

Abstract

This repeated cross-sectional study examined trends in swimming competence and the accuracy of self-assessed swimming ability among ten-year-old children in Osijek-Baranja County (2020–2024). A total of 4340 third-grade students completed both self-assessments and standardized swimming tests each year. Across five years, the prevalence of non-swimmers remained high (64–76%), with significant year-to-year variation (χ2(4) = 29.39, p < 0.05). Persistent discrepancies emerged between self-perceived and actual swimming ability (Fisher’s exact test, p < 0.001). Despite existing initiatives, swimming competence remains low and children tend to overestimate their abilities. These findings highlight the need for stronger school-based swimming education, accurate assessment strategies, and broader community engagement to foster aquatic literacy and improve child safety.

1. Introduction

Swimming proficiency encompasses the mastery of various skills required for effective and safe movement through water, both in children and adults (Madsen & Irgens, 2005). Non-swimmers, particularly among children, represent a serious public health concern, as a lack of swimming ability can lead to accidents, injuries, and even fatalities in aquatic environments. Recent data indicate that a considerable proportion of children in Europe still do not acquire basic swimming competence (Sundan et al., 2025; Tenjer et al., 2024). A large cross-sectional study from Norway showed that 37% of 9–10-year-olds could not swim the required 200 m distance, despite mandatory swimming instruction (Sundan et al., 2025). In Croatia, longitudinal data from Zagreb schools conducted between 2012 and 2019 demonstrated notable variability in swim literacy, with approximately 30–40% of second-grade pupils classified as non-swimmers at the start of the school-based swimming programme (Tenjer et al., 2024). Although Croatia does not implement swimming instruction as a compulsory part of the national school curriculum, organized swimming education is widely carried out at local levels through collaboration between schools, counties, municipalities, and sports associations. Within these frameworks, schools often participate in regionally funded programmes in cooperation with local swimming clubs and sports organizations, with the goal of reducing the prevalence of non-swimmers. According to researchers, swimming skills constitute only one component of “water safety,” which also includes knowledge and attitudes and should be addressed through integrated programming (Stallman et al., 2008). A similar perspective is found in the concept of “aquatic literacy” which describes the range of an individual’s aquatic experiences that can help predict the next skill most likely to be acquired in different water environments (Langendorfer, 2015). In Croatia, swimming competence is most commonly evaluated using the 11-point rating scale developed by Grčić-Zubčević (Grčić-Zubčević, 1997), which ranges from complete water aversion (score 1) to proficient swimming over 25 m (score 11). This scale is aligned with a five-level national classification, where level 1 represents an absolute non-swimmer assessed in shallow water, and level 5 represents an independent swimmer assessed in deep water. In this way, the system covers the full range from initial water familiarization to safe and autonomous swimming in deep water environments. For more detailed monitoring of this phenomenon, annual assessments of swimming skills are conducted among primary school students in the Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia. These data provide valuable insights into the social and educational factors influencing children’s swimming competencies and can serve as a basis for improving swimming education programs. Furthermore, the issue must be considered within the broader context of international efforts to reduce the number of non-swimmers. According to the European Maritime Safety Agency (European Maritime Safety Agency, 2022), countries across Europe are actively working to decrease the prevalence of non-swimmers through a variety of educational and preventive initiatives. In many countries, including Australia, Sweden, Norway, and England, swimming instruction has become an integral part of school curricula (Australian Water Safety Council, 2021; Pilgaard et al., 2020; Olstad et al., 2020; Pratt et al., 2024). Comprehensive educational programs in aquatic environments that promote the development of aquatic literacy open opportunities for participation in various water sports and foster lifelong engagement in physical activity (Rheker, 2011). Water competencies acquired during the earliest stages of development represent fundamental motor patterns and skills essential for safe and effective participation in water-based activities throughout adulthood (Peden & Franklin, 2020). Longitudinal studies suggest that early acquisition of swimming abilities significantly contributes to sustained physical activity later in life, thereby reducing the risk of developing chronic conditions such as obesity and type 2 diabetes (Mammen & Faulkner, 2013). Swimming offers a wide range of health benefits, including improvements in cardiovascular health and rehabilitation following serious illnesses such as coronary artery disease and heart failure (Mohr et al., 2014; Adsett et al., 2017). It is also an important tool in the prevention and rehabilitation of children with asthma (Wang & Hung, 2009), with benefits extending from physical development to improvements in psychological well-being (Mammen & Faulkner, 2013; Endrighi et al., 2016). In this context, swimming is not only a means of preventing drowning, but also a key instrument for promoting the holistic development of children—enhancing coordination, flexibility, lung capacity, and self-confidence (Pratt et al., 2024; Stanković et al., 2016; Aydin & Koca, 2014; Rumaka et al., 2007; Gllareva et al., 2020). Children who swim regularly often demonstrate improved cognitive and academic performance, attributed to enhanced concentration levels and reduced stress (Sigmundsson & Hopkins, 2009). According to the World Health Organization (World Health Organization, 2014), unintentional drowning is the third leading cause of mortality worldwide, with more than half of all victims being under the age of 25. While preventive measures such as supervision and physical barriers are partially effective, swimming education has been shown to reduce the risk of drowning by up to 90% (Powell & Hammond, 2024), which has driven the development of non-swimmer instruction programs in Croatia aimed at reducing such incidents. Osijek-Baranja County in eastern Croatia (population 259,481 in 2021) systematically evaluates children’s swimming skills and provides structured non-swimmer instruction. Organized and certified swimming instruction for non-swimmers began in 2009 under the County Sports Association programme and has since been implemented annually in cooperation with primary schools, certified swimming instructors, and sports clubs. The programme has expanded in recent years to include multiple grade levels, and in the 2023/2024 academic year it included 2639 pupils from third, fourth, and fifth grade. Despite the progress achieved in this area, research indicates that the number of non-swimmers remains high (Rastovski, 2019), highlighting the need for continued improvements and reforms in the education and swimming instruction system to reduce accidents and enhance aquatic literacy. Establishing clear criteria for the acquisition of swimming skills, alongside continued education and professional development of instructors, ensures high-quality instruction that enables both children and adults to acquire not only swimming skills but also basic water safety competencies. Furthermore, the implementation of digital systems for tracking students’ progress in swimming at the school level is recommended, as it would facilitate ongoing evaluation of program effectiveness and allow for the identification of areas requiring additional attention.
In recent years, insufficient water competencies and inaccurate self-assessment of swimming ability have emerged as public health and safety concerns. Despite the implementation of organized swimming education programs, a substantial proportion of children in Osijek-Baranja County remain non-swimmers. This highlights the need to investigate the prevalence and dynamics of swimming incompetence over time.
The primary aim of this study is to analyze the prevalence of non-swimmers among ten-year-old primary school students in Osijek-Baranja County between 2020 and 2024 and to identify trends in swimming competence during this period. The central research problem is therefore to determine both the temporal trends in swimming competence and the extent of discrepancies between self-assessment and actual swimming skills.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Sample of Participants

This study included a total of 4340 third-grade primary school students (age 9.5 ± 0.3 years) from the Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia, who participated in systematic swimming skill assessments between 2020 and 2024. The participants represent a relevant sample of primary school-aged children, as third grade is the typical stage in the Croatian education system when institutionalized swimming instruction and assessments of aquatic literacy are most frequently conducted. The sample consisted of students who took part in organized school-based swimming activities. While the number of participants varied across the years, it remained representative each year in relation to the overall population of children in this age group within the county. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Institutional Review Board (or Ethics Committee) of Josip Juraj Strossmayer University in Osijek, Faculty of Education (641-01/20-01/01; n.: 2158-63-02-20-02).

2.2. Instruments and Procedure

Data on students’ swimming skills were collected using a combination of a questionnaire-based method and practical testing. First, a self-assessment was conducted in which students responded to the question of whether they considered themselves swimmers or non-swimmers, thereby providing a subjective insight into their perceived swimming ability. The questionnaire included a clear definition of swimming competence, where ‘swimmers’ were students who self-reported the ability to swim at least 25 m without assistance, and ‘non-swimmers’ were those who reported they could not swim independently. This was followed by a standardized assessment of swimming skills organized by school sports associations, physical education specialists, and teachers, consisting of basic swimming tasks performed without flotation aids under controlled pool conditions. Based on their performance in these tasks, students were classified as either swimmers or non-swimmers using the Croatian 11-point scale of Grčić-Zubčević (Grčić-Zubčević, 1997), which is aligned with a five-level national classification of swimming competence. Level 1 reflects an absolute beginner who enters the pool only with assistance, can blow bubbles with the face in the water, and can float only with help in shallow water. Level 2 indicates independent entry into shallow water, three consecutive breaths with face immersion, ability to float independently, basic gliding, and swimming up to about 10 m. Level 3 refers to more advanced shallow-water competence, including entry by jump, ten breaths in motion, swimming 10–25 m with breathing, retrieval of an object from chest-deep water, and rotation from prone to supine without support. Level 4 (beginner swimmer in deep water) requires a feet-first jump into deep water, more than ten consecutive breaths, swimming at least 25 m, treading water vertically for >10 s, object retrieval by head-first dive, and changing between prone and supine swimming in deep water. Level 5 (swimmer in deep water) includes a head-first deep-water entry, controlled transitions between prone gliding, supine gliding, and upright position, swimming 50 m (25 m front + 25 m back), vertical support using arms only, deep object retrieval, and swimming 25 m in clothing. Participation in the practical assessment was also recorded, as not all respondents who identified as swimmers took part in the actual testing. As a result, data were collected for three relevant variables: self-assessed swimmer status, actual status based on performance, and participation in the assessment. Data collection during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) was conducted within the windows when schools reopened and swimming facilities were allowed to operate under public health measures. The national lockdown and quarantine were not in force continuously throughout the year; instead, teaching alternated between remote and in-person formats depending on weekly epidemiological conditions. Assessments were therefore carried out in the permitted periods of in-person schooling, following the hygiene and distancing protocols prescribed for sports and education activities at the time. Although these restrictions affected the continuity of instruction and could have influenced swimming competence, they did not prevent the implementation of the standardized assessment procedure itself.

2.3. Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics were used to present the frequencies and percentages of non-swimmers, swimmers, and students who did not participate in the assessment for each observed year. In addition, chi-square tests were applied to examine the significance of differences in the proportion of non-swimmers across years, the concordance between self-assessment and actual swimming status, and the relationship between the year of testing and the number of students who did not participate in the assessment. The results are presented both in tabular and textual form to clearly illustrate trends and comparisons over the five-year period.

3. Results

3.1. Descriptive Analysis

The aim of this analysis was to determine the number and proportion of non-swimming students in Osijek-Baranja County over the period from 2020 to 2024. The data include the number of students who self-identified as swimmers or non-swimmers, their participation in the swimming skill assessment, and their actual status following the testing (Table 1).
In 2020, a total of 986 students were assessed. More than half of the students (50.91%) self-identified as non-swimmers and were therefore not invited to the practical test. Of those who self-identified as swimmers, 413 (41.89% of the total sample) participated in the assessment. After testing, 18.64% of them were found to lack sufficient swimming skills. When all students who either declared themselves non-swimmers or did not pass the test are considered, the total proportion of non-swimmers amounted to 65.92%.
In 2021, a total of 366 students participated. Full attendance was achieved—every student who self-identified as a swimmer took part in the practical assessment. Among them, 28.49% failed to meet the criteria and were classified as non-swimmers. The total proportion of non-swimmers was 63.67%, slightly lower than the previous year.
In 2022, a total of 434 students took part in the assessment. Slightly less than half (42.38%) of those who self-identified as swimmers participated in the testing. More than 15% of them failed to meet the criteria. The total proportion of non-swimmers was 63.99%, which is very similar to the previous years.
In 2023, the number of participating students increased significantly (N = 1097). Despite a relatively high attendance rate (84.75%), the total proportion of non-swimmers reached 75.57%, a considerable increase compared to previous years. Particularly concerning is the fact that 15% of those who self-identified as swimmers did not attend the assessment, indicating possible overestimation of their actual abilities.
In 2024, a total of 1457 students participated in the study. The attendance rate was very high (88%), but the proportion of non-swimmers remained substantial (73%). More than one-fifth of students who claimed they could swim either failed the test or did not participate at all. This confirms a continuing trend of low swimming competence within this generation of students.
Table 2 presents the number of students who self-identified as swimmers or non-swimmers, along with the number confirmed as swimmers or non-swimmers based on practical assessment. The table also includes the difference between self-assessment and actual status for each year. As shown, the discrepancy between self-perceived and actual swimming ability varied across the years, with the greatest differences observed in 2024, and the smallest in 2021. In 2020 and 2023, a significant number of students who claimed to be swimmers were later identified as non-swimmers after testing. Over the period from 2020 to 2024, a total of 4340 students were tested in Osijek-Baranja County. The number and percentage of non-swimmers fluctuated year to year as presented in Table 3. In 2020, 65.9% of students were classified as non-swimmers, while in 2021 and 2022 this proportion slightly decreased (~64%). However, in 2023 and 2024, a marked increase was observed, with 75.6% and 73% of students, respectively, identified as non-swimmers. This indicates a negative trend in the swimming competence of the student population.

3.2. Differences in the Number of Non-Swimmers Across Years

To examine whether there were statistically significant differences in the distribution of non-swimmers across years, a chi-square test of independence was conducted using a 2 × 5 contingency table (swimmer/non-swimmer × year). The results revealed a significant difference in the proportion of non-swimmers between years, χ2(4) = 29.39, p < 0.05. These findings indicate that the structure of students’ swimming abilities changed over time, with a marked increase in the proportion of non-swimmers in 2023 and 2024. This trend may reflect broader changes in physical activity levels, implementation of physical and health education classes, or other social and educational factors, thereby confirming the first hypothesis.

3.3. Differences Between Self-Assessment and Actual Status

Fisher’s exact test was used to compare students’ self-assessed swimming status with their actual performance outcomes across all five years. In each case, the difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001), indicating a persistent discrepancy between perceived and actual swimming abilities. These results support the conclusion that a considerable number of students tend to overestimate their swimming competence.
Table 4 presents the results of Fisher’s exact test for each year, comparing students’ self-assessed swimming ability with their actual swimming status as determined through practical testing. Fisher’s exact test was applied in this context because, in each contingency table, at least one cell (self-identified as non-swimmer × confirmed swimmer) had a value of zero. Therefore, this test was more appropriate than the chi-square test. For each year, the p-value was below 0.001, indicating a statistically significant difference between self-assessment and actual performance. These findings suggest that students’ self-assessment of their swimming abilities significantly deviates from their actual competencies, and that such discrepancies were consistently present throughout the entire study period. This supports the second hypothesis. In conclusion, the results of the descriptive analysis and the chi-square test clearly demonstrate significant differences between students’ self-perceptions and their actual swimming performance, suggesting a tendency among students to overestimate their swimming skills. The largest discrepancies were recorded in 2020 (a difference of 148 students between self-identified and confirmed swimmers), followed by 2023 (128 students). In contrast, the smallest difference was observed in 2021, which may indicate higher accuracy of self-assessments in that year. Across all years, p-values below 0.001 indicate a high level of statistical significance, confirming that these discrepancies are not due to chance but reflect real differences in swimming competence among students.

4. Discussion

An analysis of data related to the proportion of non-swimmers in Osijek-Baranja County between 2020 and 2024 revealed significant trends and differences in both participation in swimming skill assessments and the actual outcomes of these assessments. The percentage of students who self-identified as non-swimmers but were not invited to testing ranged from 40% to 50% during the observed period. These figures suggest that many students are aware of their lack of swimming ability. However, they also indicate that a substantial number of students are excluded from systematic assessments, which may point to shortcomings in organizational or procedural aspects of the testing process. Interestingly, the frequency of students not being invited to participate in swimming assessments may be the result of administrative or logistical challenges in test implementation. Such gaps can have long-term negative consequences on the timely identification of students’ swimming deficits. A study conducted on a similar student population (Tenjer et al., 2024) reported a positive trend in reducing the number of non-swimmers, which was attributed in part to the construction of new swimming pools. In contrast, the lack of indoor swimming facilities in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia, may be one of the contributing factors to the persistently high proportion of non-swimmers observed in this region. Comparable findings have also been reported across Europe in samples of children aged 6–10 years, where swimming competence is strongly influenced by the availability of aquatic infrastructure and structured curricular exposure (Costa et al., 2020; Sundan et al., 2025; Santibañez-Gutierrez et al., 2022). It is noteworthy that the percentage of students who self-identified as swimmers but failed the practical test was relatively high. In 2020, for example, as many as 18.64% of students (Table 1) who claimed to be swimmers did not meet the minimum criteria during the assessment. This trend continued in the following years, particularly in 2023 and 2024, where the number of students who either failed the test or did not attend the assessment increased, indicating a high rate of overestimation of one’s own swimming abilities. This pattern reflects findings from other European cohorts of similar age, where perceived competence frequently exceeds real aquatic performance (Costa et al., 2020; Chan et al., 2020). Moreover, recently published Norwegian data in 9- to 10-year-olds demonstrated a similar discrepancy between self-perceived and objectively measured competence within school physical education (Sundan et al., 2025).
This phenomenon of overestimation is not unique to children; studies in adolescents and students consistently show that self-reported competence is a poor proxy for objectively assessed aquatic skill (Santibañez-Gutierrez et al., 2022; Chan et al., 2020). This trend may reflect a broader issue in societal perceptions of swimming skills, where students tend to underestimate the complexity of swimming and fail to recognize their own limitations. This phenomenon may be further reinforced by social norms that portray swimming as a simple or intuitive activity, while it requires both technique and physical conditioning. A global survey conducted in 2019 found that 25% of adults in high-income countries (HICs) and 75% in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) reported being unable to swim, with notable gender disparities. The data were based on binary self-reported answers (“yes” or “no”) to a single question about swimming ability (Borgonovi et al., 2022). In Australia, 25% of adults consider themselves poor swimmers or non-swimmers, while, in New Zealand, 35% identify similarly, and 32% do not believe they are sufficiently competent to be safe in open water environments (Willcox-Pidgeon et al., 2025). Studies involving university students reveal that young adults frequently overestimate their swimming and water safety competencies, particularly in pool settings (Willcox-Pidgeon et al., 2025; Petrass et al., 2012; Moran et al., 2012). Participation in swimming skill assessments also fluctuated throughout the observed period. Although response rates were high in 2021 (100%) and 2022 (84.75%), in 2020, as many as 14.7% of students did not participate in the assessment (Table 1). This may indicate potential challenges related to student motivation or the organization of the assessments themselves, possibly caused by home isolation and social restrictions. These circumstances had a considerable psychological impact on many students, including increased stress and difficulties adapting to altered living conditions (Fiorilli et al., 2021). These fluctuations may be associated with external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Since its onset, beyond direct health-related effects, the pandemic has negatively influenced students’ daily lives and activities, significantly disrupting the educational process (Gallè et al., 2022). Similar declines in aquatic participation and competence due to pandemic-related restrictions have been discussed in epidemiological reviews on children’s swimming competence and water safety in Europe (Santibañez-Gutierrez et al., 2022). In addition, the reduced interest in physical activity among youth has led to decreased motivation, as supported by findings from studies addressing the global pandemic of physical inactivity (Andersen et al., 2016). Although some variation in the number of non-swimmers was observed during the five-year period, the overall proportion remained consistently high ranging from 64% to 75%. This aligns with recent European findings showing that despite partial curricular exposure, a substantial proportion of third-grade pupils do not reach basic competence thresholds in aquatic literacy (Sundan et al., 2025). These data highlight serious challenges within the existing educational programs aimed at reducing the number of non-swimmers, implying a need for more effective strategies and greater involvement of the broader community. It is essential that swimming be systematically integrated into school curricula, as the proportion of non-swimmers remains alarmingly high despite increased participation in swimming skill assessments. Evidence from European contexts suggests that structural factors (pool availability, curricular mandates, testing standardization, and teacher training) are critical mediators of swimming literacy in early primary school (Costa et al., 2020; Sundan et al., 2025; Santibañez-Gutierrez et al., 2022). Moreover, the large number of students who either did not attend the assessment or failed to meet the required standards highlights the need for additional interventions aimed at promoting participation and addressing both motivational and technical aspects of swimming education. Similar challenges in children’s physical fitness have been documented in the Czech Republic, where, despite declining motor abilities and increasing physical inactivity, the expansion of swimming pools and swimming schools in cities such as Brno has contributed to the growing popularity of swimming. A repeated cross-sectional study involving 14,793 second-grade students conducted between 1995 and 2015 demonstrated an increase in the proportion of swimmers and a reduction in the number of children who were afraid of water, even after the cancellation of mandatory swimming courses in 2005 (Strašilová et al., 2020). These findings suggest that, given adequate infrastructure and support, swimming skills can be maintained and even improved, despite rising levels of physical inactivity. Integration of these insights emphasizes the importance of continuous evaluation and improvement of swimming education programs. Recent findings confirm that youth exposure to swimming produces specific physiological and biomechanical adaptations. Solovjova et al. (Solovjova et al., 2023) showed that young swimmers differ in posture from peers in other sports, underscoring the importance of accurately identifying swimming competence when interpreting developmental outcomes. A comprehensive approach is needed—one that addresses both the technical development of swimming skills, and the motivational factors involved. The goal is to reduce the number of non-swimmers and improve the overall physical fitness and safety of children. Taken together, the current findings reinforce the call for continuous monitoring and revision of aquatic curricula in Europe and for targeted policies addressing competence gaps at the third-grade level, where intervention effectiveness is both feasible and impactful.
A key limitation of this study is its reliance on secondary data collected from administrative reports, which constrained our ability to analyze individual student characteristics, such as socio-economic status or prior swimming experience. Furthermore, the findings, particularly for 2020 and 2021, should be interpreted with caution due to the direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely affected participation rates, access to swimming facilities, and overall student motivation. The reliance on data from Osijek-Baranja County and the lack of indoor facilities also limits the generalizability of the absolute non-swimmer proportions to regions with better infrastructure. A methodological limitation of this study is that students who self-identified as non-swimmers were not invited to the practical assessment. Given that the classification relied on self-report for this subgroup, it is possible that some students with actual swimming ability were misclassified due to non-disclosure or inaccurate self-identification. Another limitation of the study is that data were not analyzed by gender. This decision was made because the study was designed to examine temporal trends and discrepancies between self-report and actual swimming competence at the population level rather than between demographic subgroups. In addition, the gender distribution was unbalanced across the years, and in several cohorts the number of tested swimmers per gender was too small to allow reliable statistical comparison. Consequently, any gender-stratified analysis would risk producing unstable or misleading results.
Despite these limitations, the study offers significant strengths. Its repeated cross-sectional design spanning five years (2020–2024) provides a robust longitudinal trend analysis, which is essential for evaluating the consistency of the challenge. The use of a standardized, objective assessment (the Croatian 11-point scale of Grčić-Zubčević) to compare against subjective self-assessment is a major strength, clearly quantifying the issue of overestimation. Finally, its focus on a population that is the target of a long-standing regional intervention (the non-swimmer education program in Osijek-Baranja County) provides valuable evidence for the need for enhanced strategies and infrastructure investment.

5. Conclusions

This repeated cross-sectional study provides a critical assessment of swimming competence trends among children in Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia. The analysis reveals that the overall proportion of students classified as non-swimmers remains alarmingly and consistently high, ranging from 64% to 75% over the five-year period. A key finding is the significant overestimation of skills, evidenced by a substantial number of students who self-identify as swimmers yet fail the objective practical assessment. Furthermore, the data point to organizational deficiencies, as many self-assessed non-swimmers are excluded from systematic testing, hindering timely intervention. In a broader context, the persistent high non-swimmer rate strongly suggests that the lack of dedicated indoor swimming facilities in the county is a critical, limiting factor compared to more successful European programs. To effectively address this public health challenge and improve water safety, future efforts must prioritize the systematic integration of swimming instruction into school curricula, ensure greater accessibility to year-round facilities, and implement enhanced organizational strategies to test and include all students in targeted non-swimmer education programs.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, D.R. and D.Z.; methodology, M.Đ.; software, M.Đ.; validation, D.Z. and M.Đ.; formal analysis, D.R.; investigation, D.R. and D.Z.; resources, D.Z.; data curation, M.Đ.; writing—original draft preparation, D.R. and D.Z.; writing—review and editing, D.Z. and M.Đ.; visualization, D.R.; supervision, M.Đ.; project administration, D.Z.; funding acquisition, D.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, and approved by the Institutional Review Board (or Ethics Committee) of Josip Juraj Strossmayer University in Osijek, Faculty of Education (641-01/20-01/01; n.: 2158-63-02-20-02).

Informed Consent Statement

Informed consent was obtained from the parents of all subjects involved in the study.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Table 1. Descriptive data for the year.
Table 1. Descriptive data for the year.
Category20202021202220232024
N%N%N%N%N%
Total number of students986100.0366100.0434100.01097100.01457100.0
Non-swimmers not invited to the practical swimming test50250.9118049.1817740.7447243.0261242.0
Self-identified as swimmers (invited to the assessment)48449.0918650.8225759.2655150.284558.0
Participated in the practical swimming test41341.89186100.018442.3846784.7574288.0
Did not participate in the assessment7114.700.07316.818415.2410312.0
Confirmed swimmers after the assessment (among those tested)33681.3613371.5115684.7842376.765978.0
Confirmed non-swimmers after the assessment (among those tested)7718.645328.492815.22449.418622.0
Total non-swimmers (including those not tested)65065.9223363.6727863.9982975.57106973.0
Total non-swimmers who either self-identified as such or failed the test57958.6723363.6720547.2751650.9496666.0
Legend: N—Number of students, %—Percentage.
Table 2. Comparison of self-assessment and actual status by year.
Table 2. Comparison of self-assessment and actual status by year.
YearSelf-Identified as SwimmersConfirmed SwimmersDifference
(Self-Assessment—Actual Status)		Self-Identified as Non-SwimmersConfirmed Non-SwimmersDifference (Self-Assessment—Actual Status)
202048433614850277425
20211861335318053127
202225715610117728149
202355142312847244428
2024845659186612186426
Table 3. Total number and percentage of non-swimmers by year (2020–2024).
Table 3. Total number and percentage of non-swimmers by year (2020–2024).
YearTotal Number of StudentsNumber of Non-SwimmersPercentage of Non-Swimmers
202098665065.92%
202136623363.67%
202243427863.99%
2023109782975.57%
20241457106973.00%
Note—The number of non-swimmers includes students who self-identified as swimmers but did not attend the assessment, as well as those who were classified as non-swimmers based on their performance in the practical test.
Table 4. Fisher’s exact test comparing self-assessed and actual swimming status.
Table 4. Fisher’s exact test comparing self-assessed and actual swimming status.
Yearp-ValueSignificance
2020p < 0.001Significant
2021p < 0.001Significant
2022p < 0.001Significant
2023p < 0.001Significant
2024p < 0.001Significant
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Rastovski, D.; Zoretic, D.; Đurović, M. Trends in Swimming Competence Among Youth: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study (2020–2024). Youth 2025, 5, 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/youth5040117

AMA Style

Rastovski D, Zoretic D, Đurović M. Trends in Swimming Competence Among Youth: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study (2020–2024). Youth. 2025; 5(4):117. https://doi.org/10.3390/youth5040117

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rastovski, Dražen, Dajana Zoretic, and Marko Đurović. 2025. "Trends in Swimming Competence Among Youth: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study (2020–2024)" Youth 5, no. 4: 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/youth5040117

APA Style

Rastovski, D., Zoretic, D., & Đurović, M. (2025). Trends in Swimming Competence Among Youth: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study (2020–2024). Youth, 5(4), 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/youth5040117

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