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Communication

Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries

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Institut für Theoretische Physik, Lehrstuhl IV: Weltraum-und Astrophysik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, D-44780 Bochum, Germany
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Institut für Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Leibnizstr. 15, D-24118 Kiel, Germany
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Polymer Physics, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Roger Frutos
COVID 2021, 1(1), 130-136; https://doi.org/10.3390/covid1010012
Received: 14 June 2021 / Revised: 10 July 2021 / Accepted: 12 July 2021 / Published: 14 July 2021
Based on hospital capacities, facts from past experience with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus and the number of dark infections during the second wave (DII=2D2), a reasonable limiting value of 140/D2 for the 7-day incidence per 100,000 persons (MSDIHT) and a second wave herd immunization threshold fraction value of 0.26 in Germany were calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value, the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. On the basis of the SIRV epidemics model, the classical threshold values for herd immunization were calculated for 18 countries. For these countries, the dates regarding when herd immunization against the second COVID-19 wave will be reached were estimated. View Full-Text
Keywords: coronavirus; extrapolation; 7-day incidence value; COVID-19 coronavirus; extrapolation; 7-day incidence value; COVID-19
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MDPI and ACS Style

Schlickeiser, R.; Kröger, M. Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries. COVID 2021, 1, 130-136. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid1010012

AMA Style

Schlickeiser R, Kröger M. Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries. COVID. 2021; 1(1):130-136. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid1010012

Chicago/Turabian Style

Schlickeiser, Reinhard, and Martin Kröger. 2021. "Reasonable Limiting of 7-Day Incidence per Hundred Thousand and Herd Immunization in Germany and Other Countries" COVID 1, no. 1: 130-136. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid1010012

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