Climate Changes Can Restore Allopatry Between Two Congeneric Birds in the Atlantic Forest

Simple Summary

Some species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct due to climate changes. We aim to understand how climate changes would affect the potential distribution of two congeneric birds in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. We use data for both species from the literature and online platforms to model their future distribution under climate change. The models predicted that the two species would respond differently to the ongoing climatic changes. Tropical Mockingbird tended to increase its suitable area by 3.5% in the optimistic scenario (minimum temperature increase by 2060) and 2.5% in the pessimistic scenario (maximum temperature increase by 2060), relative to the 1960–1990 baseline. Chalk-browed Mockingbird tended to decrease its suitable area by 64% in the optimistic scenario and by 65% in the pessimistic scenario. The two future scenarios of temperature increase predicted that the co-occurrence between the species will be rare, with the two species becoming separated by climatically unsuitable areas. Our results highlighted the need for environmental policies considering local context and associated species traits.

Abstract

The climate is expected to change substantially by the end of the current century. In response to climate change, species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct. We aim to assess how the climate changes predicted to occur by 2060 may affect the potential distribution of Tropical Mockingbird (Mimus gilvus antelius) and Chalk-browed Mockingbird (Mimus saturninus frater) within the Atlantic Forest domain, Brazil. Occurrence data for both species were compiled from the scientific literature and online biodiversity databases. A total of 118 georeferenced records were obtained for Tropical Mockingbird and 1080 for Chalk-browed Mockingbird. Species distribution models predicted that the two species would respond differently to the ongoing climatic changes. The Tropical Mockingbird will slightly expand its suitable habitat by 3.5% (3871 km²) under the optimistic scenario (minimum temperature increase by 2060; Representative Concentration Pathways-RCP 2.6) and 2.5% (2765 km²) in the pessimistic scenario (maximum temperature increase by 2060; RPC 8.5), relative to the 1960–1990 baseline. Chalk-browed Mockingbird will reduce its suitable habitat by 64% (70,780 km²) under RPC 2.6 and 65% (71,886 km²) under RPC 8.5. The two future climate scenarios suggest that sympatry between the two species will become increasingly rare, with a shift toward allopatry due to emerging climatically unsuitable areas separating their distributions. Our results highlighted the importance of environmental policies that incorporate local ecological contexts and species-specific traits to mitigate biodiversity loss under future climate conditions.

1. Introduction

Studies have indicated that changes will occur in the current temperature and rainfall patterns, and the climate is predicted to vary considerably by the end of the current century [1]. The trend of climatic changes depends on the specific region of the globe [2,3,4] and may affect the current distribution patterns of many species. Because the species are different in their sensitivity to climate variations, they are expected to respond differently to ongoing climatic oscillations. For example, culicid mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus tend to expand their distribution in the Neotropical region [5]. Similarly, some mammals and birds tend to reorganize their spatial distribution in other biogeographic regions [6,7,8,9], and the same has also been predicted for birds [10,11] and mammals [12] of the Cerrado biome, central Brazil. Preliminary evaluations of the effects of climatic changes on species distribution are useful tools for creating more effective management and conservation strategies [13], especially in the case of threatened species.

In response to climatic changes, species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct [14,15]. Species that disperse easily or tolerate climate variations tend to be less affected or may even benefit from the temperature increase predicted to take place by the end of the current century [9,16]. For example, some Passeriformes birds employ altitudinal migration [17,18], restrict their area of occurrence [10], or become sympatric with other species [19,20] in response to the loss of viable habitats.

The Tropical Mockingbird (Mimus gilvus antelius) (Oberholser, 1919) is restricted to the Brazilian coast [21], occurring from Rio Grande do Norte to the south of Rio de Janeiro [22,23]. It is usually associated with open coastal plains (i.e., restinga) [23,24] and does not enter forests. Tropical Mockingbird is included in the list of endangered species in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo [25,26]. The Chalk-browed Mockingbird (Mimus saturninus frater) (Hellmayr, 1903) has a wider distribution in South America. It is found from the open fields of northern Bolivia to the southeast and northeast of Brazil [23,24]. In some areas, its distribution reaches the Atlantic coast (e.g., Recôncavo Baiano and restingas in Espírito Santo State), where it replaces or occurs sympatrically with Tropical Mockingbird [23,24]. The real reason for this sympatry is not known, but human land use, which removed the natural barrier that separated the two species (i.e., Atlantic Forest), has been suggested as a possible reason [20], as reported for other bird species [19,27].

Considering the hypothesis that species with wider spatial distributions can better withstand the effects of climatic changes [28], we predict that the potential distribution range of the Tropical Mockingbird will decrease by 2060 [29] in a scenario of climatic change, as the spatial distribution of this species is restricted to open coastal plains [30]. In contrast, with its currently broader distribution, Chalk-browed Mockingbird will increase its potential distribution because it adapts to anthropogenic environments with shrubby vegetation [22] or even to urbanized areas [22,31].

The sympatry between the Tropical Mockingbird and the Chalk-browed Mockingbird is relatively recent [32]. This novel competitive effect between these congeneric species has been pointed out as a problem for Tropical Mockingbird conservation [20]. So, predictions about how climatic changes could affect the future distribution of these two congeneric species can contribute to decision-making regarding the conservation planning of the Tropical Mockingbird. For example, the knowledge of future scenarios can support effective decision-making about the locations to conserve viable populations of Tropical Mockingbirds.

We aimed to understand how the climatic changes predicted to occur by 2060 would affect the potential distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird within the Atlantic Forest domain. We used ecological niche modeling to (1) map the current distribution of Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird, (2) understand the current distribution of Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird under an approach that considers the climatic suitability of an area, (3) predict how the climatic changes will affect the future distribution of Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird, and (4) discuss the model’s implications for interspecies interactions and suggest conservation strategies.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

We used only the occurrence data for Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird recorded in the Atlantic Forest domain. We used the layer of the Atlantic Forest from IBGE [33], which comprises the Ombrophylus Dense and Mixed Ombrophylus Forests (Araucaria Forest), Seasonal Semideciduous and Deciduous Forests, Restingas (i.e., sand-coastal plain) [34], Mangroves, and Dunes, as well as high-altitude rocky outcrop [35,36]. The Atlantic Forest domain extends along the eastern coast of Brazil from the states of Rio Grande do Norte in the northeast to Rio Grande do Sul in the south, encompassing inland areas such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo, and reaching into parts of Paraguay and Argentina. This domain originally encompassed approximately 1,300,000 km² and is currently considered one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots worldwide [34,35,36].

2.2. Study Species

The Tropical Mockingbird is a medium-sized passerine (23–25 cm) with no apparent sexual dimorphism and taxonomically distinct South American populations [24]. It is omnivorous, feeding on arthropods, seeds, and fruits [23], and is considered a keystone species in the restinga ecosystem [37]. In Brazil, it occurs in coastal plains from the states of Rio Grande do Norte to Rio de Janeiro [23,24] and exhibits cooperative breeding, with helpers participating in territorial defense and parental care [38]. Its nest is cup-shaped and placed on branches up to 1.3 m above the ground [23,39], most often in Icica (Protium icicariba), although it has been recorded in 30 plant species [39]. The breeding season lasts about 6.5 months, with up to two peaks of active nests between August and March [39,40]. The mean clutch size is 2.4 eggs, and each female may make up to four nesting attempts in the same breeding season [39,41]. Predation is the main cause of nest failure (75%), with nest success ranging from 26,6% to 31% [40,41]. The species is currently considered threatened in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo [25,26], mainly due to restinga habitat fragmentation, urbanization, and competition with the Chalk-browed Mockingbird in overlapping areas [20,42]. With an annual survival rate of 77% and fecundity of 0.64 [41], some populations at the southern limit of its distribution are declining [41,42].

The Chalk-browed Mockingbird is widely distributed in South America, inhabiting savannas, grasslands, farmlands, and urban areas [23,24]. Its diverse omnivorous diet includes arthropods, fruits, and occasionally vertebrates, making it an important seed disperser [43]. Breeding occurs between late August and December [43,44], with cup-shaped nests built from twigs in bushes up to 1.3 m above the ground [23,44]. The mean clutch size is 2.9 eggs, and nestlings can be parasitized by botfly larvae (Philornis sp.) [44]. The species rejects parasitic eggs of the Shiny Cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) regardless of clutch composition [45] and may experience simultaneous co-parasitism by Philornis sp. and cowbirds, negatively affecting reproductive fitness [46]. The species exhibits cooperative breeding, and even communal breeding has been recorded [44].

2.3. Bird Species Data

Occurrence data of the Tropical Mockingbird and the Chalk-browed Mockingbird were compiled from georeferenced records available on online platforms, specifically SpeciesLink [47] and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) [48], and supplemented with data from the scientific literature [23,49,50,51,52,53,54]. The literature search was conducted between January and March 2021 using the Scopus, Web of Science (the core collection), and Google Scholar databases. Keywords used in the search included combinations of the species’ scientific names (Mimus gilvus antelius and Mimus saturninus frater), common English names (Tropical Mockingbird and the Chalk-browed Mockingbird), and terms such as “distribution”, “geographic distributions”, “occurrence”, and “historical occurrence”. We included peer-reviewed articles, theses, and dissertations that provided occurrence data for the studied species. The resulting raw dataset was subjected to a pre-processing pipeline to ensure data quality and suitability for species distribution modeling. Recognizing the variability in sampling methods and effort among sources, we applied a series of filtering and cleaning steps, which excluded the following: (i) records with incomplete information; (ii) duplicate records, identified by identical or near-identical geographic coordinates; and (iii) low-precision records, defined as those with spatial uncertainty exceeding a predefined threshold or referring to broad, non-specific locations [55].

Occurrence data were restricted to the period from 1890 to 2017 to ensure temporal standardization and to maximize the comparability and validity of distribution models. Including more recent records—often generated using different collection methods and varying sampling efforts—could introduce biases that compromise the temporal framework. We aimed to preserve dataset homogeneity and integrity, thereby enhancing the reliability of inferences regarding changes in species distribution over time.

2.4. Climate Data

Climate variables were extracted from the WorldClim database at a spatial resolution of 2.5 arc-minutes [56]. We used the 1960–1990 baseline to model the current species distribution. Projections of future distributions were based on the 2041–2060 baseline, consistent with widely accepted climate projection intervals [8,9]. We acknowledge that the temporal range of species occurrence records (1890–2017) does not perfectly align with the climate baselines (1960–1990 for current and 2041–2060 for future scenarios), a common limitation in species distribution modeling. This reflects the historical nature of occurrence data in contrast to standardized climate datasets. Nonetheless, our approach is centered on the climatic envelope defining suitable environmental conditions, enabling the projection of species’ climatic preferences onto distinct temporal climatic scenarios, including historical baselines and future projections. This framework facilitates the understanding of how known climatic requirements interact with both past and projected future climates, rather than attempting to model population dynamics over the entire historical timeframe.

Variable selection was conducted independently for each species to ensure that the chosen predictors were ecologically relevant to their specific biological requirements [23,54] and to enhance model performance. To minimize multicollinearity, only variables with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) < 0.63 were retained for further analysis. Highly correlated bioclimatic layers were excluded to reduce the risk of model overfitting and overparameterization [57,58].

For Tropical Mockingbird, we used isothermality (Bio 3), maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio 5), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), annual temperature range (Bio 7), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio 8), annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of the wettest month (Bio 13), precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio 16), precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio 18), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19). For Chalk-browed Mockingbird, we used the annual mean diurnal temperature range (Bio 2), annual temperature range (Bio 7), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio 10), precipitation of the wettest month (Bio 13), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14), precipitation seasonality (Bio 15), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio 18) [59].

The use of distinct climate variable datasets for Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird is based on their differences in habitat use and geographic distribution [20,23,31,54]. Tropical Mockingbird is typically associated with sand-coastal plains (restinga) [22,23,24], suggesting a sensitivity to specific temperature extremes and precipitation patterns characteristic of these more localized habitats. In contrast, the Chalk-browed Mockingbird has a much wider distribution across varied open phytophysiognomies, including anthropogenic landscapes and savannas [23,32,54], indicating a broader ecological niche and potentially different limiting climatic factors. The adjustment of the climate variables to the biology of each species provides more accurate and robust distribution predictions. While this approach leads to distinct variable sets between species, it is ecologically justified by their divergent habitat preferences and aims to capture the unique drivers of each species.

2.5. Statistical Analysis and Modeling Work

Future climatic projections were based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) [1,60], aligning with the established future prediction patterns of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1]. Two distinct future scenarios were employed: an optimistic scenario reflecting a minimum temperature increase (1.8 °C ± 0.7 °C-RCP 2.6) and a pessimistic scenario representing a maximum temperature increase (3.7 °C ± 0.9 °C-RCP 8.5) predicted for the modeled period.

Models of both species distributions were developed by relating occurrence records and climate variables using the bioclimatic envelope algorithm (BIOCLIM) in the R package dismo [61]. Because the BIOCLIM algorithm results in more conservative predictions [13,62,63,64] when predicting species’ distributions when presence-only data are available, it is currently the most widely used tool to estimate future changes in species distribution [13,65,66], giving better performances concerning other algorithms [67]. The BIOCLIM algorithm has been applied to build species distribution models [68,69,70], mainly when used in conjunction with bioclimatic variables [68,71].

The models were fitted with 75% of the training data and 25% of the test data, with 1000 iterations. Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird were modeled in three ways: occurrence according to the current climate; occurrence according to the future climate, with a minimum temperature increase expected by 2060 (optimistic scenario) and; occurrence according to the future climate, with a maximum temperature increase expected by 2060 (pessimistic scenario). We evaluated the models using the AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) [72]. All models had high AUC values (>0.85) and have high rates of prediction of true presences (=low omission error).

Spatial analysis was performed using QGIS 3.2.3 [73] and the R Statistical Environmental Version 3.4.3 [74].

3. Results

We found 118 occurrence points for Tropical Mockingbird and 1080 for Chalk-browed Mockingbird within the Atlantic Forest. The current distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird spans the coastal region from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Norte (Figure 1). Our models predicted a potential expansion of suitable habitat for the Tropical Mockingbird, particularly to the west of its current distribution (Figure 2), and gains in suitability over large areas with the temperature increase predicted from the northern coast of Pernambuco to the state of Espírito Santo. Tropical Mockingbird will increase 3.5% (3871 km²) its suitable habitat compared to its current range (1960–1990 baseline) under the in the optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6) and also increase 2.5% (2765 km²) under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5).

The current distribution of Chalk-browed Mockingbird extends broadly across the Atlantic Forest and is not restricted to the coast (Figure 1). Our models predicted a potential distribution with higher suitability in the central area of the Atlantic Forest in the states of Paraná and São Paulo (Figure 3). The suitability area decreased in the north of the biome, especially under the scenario of pessimistic temperature increase (maximum temperature increase, RCP 8.5) (Figure 3). Losses in suitability for Chalk-browed Mockingbird occurred in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo, western Paraná, coastal Bahia and Espírito Santo, and northern Rio de Janeiro. However, gains in suitability were also predicted, especially in São Paulo and Paraná (Figure 3). Chalk-browed Mockingbird will reduce its suitable area by 64% (70,780 km²) in the optimistic scenario and 65% (71,886 km²) in the pessimistic scenario, compared to their current suitable area.

The Tropical Mockingbird tended to expand its distribution with increasing temperatures, whereas the Chalk-browed Mockingbird exhibited a substantial contraction within the Atlantic Forest domain. Furthermore, the two species are projected to overlap in only a few areas (Figure 4).

4. Discussion

Our models predicted different responses to ongoing climate changes for the two species. Tropical Mockingbird tended to expand distribution to the northeaster and decrease towards its southeastern distribution. On the other hand, the Chalk-browed Mockingbird tended to reduce the distribution in the northeast and concentrate its distribution in the southeast and central-south of the Atlantic Forest domain. Species-specific sensitivity to climate changes and fragmentation has been shown for different bird communities, where ecological traits such as habitat specialization and dispersal limitation have different explanatory power [9]. These findings align with a growing body of literature on avian responses to climate change across diverse biomes [75,76,77,78]. For instance, several studies have documented how boreal birds respond to warming temperatures, altered snow regimes, and shifts in prey availability, often reporting range contractions in cold-adapted species and expansions in generalist ones [66]. In addition to gradual temperature increases, extreme and abrupt weather events, such as prolonged droughts [79,80] and intense heatwaves, can severely affect avian populations by disrupting water sources, food availability, and breeding success [77,79]. These dynamics warrant greater attention in future analyses to fully capture the complexity of climate change impacts [75,78]. Our findings from the Atlantic Forest contribute to this broader understanding by illustrating how these climatic factors drive divergent distributional patterns, highlighting the importance of incorporating broader geographic scales in conservation planning.

Our predicted distribution patterns for both species diverged from our initial hypotheses, which anticipated a reduction in suitable habitat for the Tropical Mockingbird due to its narrower distribution and an expansion for the Chalk-browed Mockingbird given its broader geographic range and recognized ecological plasticity [21,22,23,24]. This apparent contradiction may reflect more complex ecological dynamics than initially assumed. Discrepancies between expected and modeled responses are increasingly acknowledged in climate ecology, as demonstrated by recent syntheses on various avian groups, including mountain birds [81]. These studies highlight that species’ responses are rarely linear or predictable, being shaped by a complex interplay of physiological tolerances, microhabitat availability, biotic interactions, and local environmental heterogeneity.

For the Tropical Mockingbird, the predicted increase in habitat suitability—particularly in northeastern and more inland regions—suggests a potential tolerance to warmer environments, such as sand-coastal plains (restinga ecosystem). This thermal tolerance may confer resilience or even a selective advantage under rising temperatures in specific areas [20]. Nonetheless, despite the overall gain in suitable areas, our models also indicated a loss of habitat suitability in the southernmost part of its range (state of Rio de Janeiro), where the species is currently listed as endangered [25]. This finding aligns with previous concerns regarding population decline in that region [42].

In contrast, the projected contraction of the Chalk-browed Mockingbird in the northern Atlantic Forest, despite its known ecological plasticity and widespread occurrence in other biomes, suggests that future climate conditions may impose unfavorable environmental constraints within this domain. Although the species adapted to anthropogenic environments [20] and thrives in savannas and disturbed areas [22,23], such adaptability may not confer universal advantages under all climate scenarios within the Atlantic Forest. It is plausible that specific combinations of climatic variables—such as altered precipitation regimes or extreme temperatures, which may not have been limiting in other habitats—could exceed the species physiological thresholds in this biome. Additionally, biotic interactions, such as interspecific competition, or unmodeled anthropogenic pressures, may further influence these projections. These results underscore the complexity and heterogeneity of species response to climate change, which are shaped by interaction between species-specific traits and local environmental conditions.

Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird occur in sympatry across the Atlantic coast [19,20]. However, under both optimistic and pessimistic future temperature-increase, these two species are projected to exhibit an allopatric distribution, with a restricted contact zone along the coast of the state of Espírito Santo. As temperature expected to continue rising beyond 2060, a complete separation between both species is likely after that year. Therefore, the spatial distribution of Tropical Mockingbird and Chalk-browed Mockingbird will diverge in the near future due to climate change.

In general, our models predicted a gain in habitat suitability for the Tropical Mockingbird. Although we predicted an increase in the distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird to the northeast, evidenced by an increase in suitable areas inland, an increase in unsuitable habitat is predicted to its southern distribution limit (state of Rio de Janeiro), which may result in population decline. Estimations of the Tropical Mockingbird population in Rio de Janeiro predicted its population decrease of up to 46% over a 10-year period [42]. Our climate distribution model supports this prediction, which indicates a decrease in the suitability area of coastal regions such as the central-north coast of Rio de Janeiro [82] that will become climatically unsuitable as the temperature increases.

Beyond the climate effects on the distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird, factors such as fragmentation of the restinga ecosystem and urbanization of coastal regions may limit the occupation of some predicted areas as suitable habitats [20]. In the Nearctic ecozone, there is physiological evidence that the Northern Mockingbird (Mimus polyglottos) and the Curve-Billed Thrasher (Toxostoma curvirostre) are more stressed in the urban habitats [83]. Most of the predicted suitable habitat for Tropical Mockingbird is in an urbanized or semi-urbanized region, where the urbanization index tends to increase in the future. These predictions can become a problem for the Tropical Mockingbird conservation because its abundance is negatively related to urbanization index [20].

For the Chalk-browed Mockingbird, it is predicted a gain in suitability areas located in the central-southern and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest (i.e., the states of São Paulo and Paraná) and a decrease in suitable habitat in the southeastern (i.e., the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo) and northeastern coastal regions. The Chalk-browed Mockingbird has shown resistance to habitat modification and sometimes has benefited from the deforestation of the Atlantic Forest [54], showing good adaptive plasticity in urban areas [20] and farmlands [22,54]. This species has a wider ecological niche, which is evidenced by its presence in many natural savannas (i.e., Cerrado, Caatinga, and Pantanal) and disturbed (i.e., grasslands, farmlands, and urban areas) environments [31,32,54].

Considering the ecological traits of the Chalk-browed Mockingbird, the fact that it is not an endangered species, and its wide distribution outside the limits of the Atlantic Forest, the decrease in its suitable habitat in the Atlantic Forest domain is not a problem for this species. The predicted allopatric distribution of these two congeneric species, with a contact zone limited to the coast of Espírito Santo under the future temperature scenario, may favor the conservation of the Tropical Mockingbird. Although direct empirical data on the intensity and mechanisms of interspecific competition between the Tropical Mockingbird and the Chalk-browed Mockingbird are scarce, current sympatry has been identified as a potential threat to the Tropical Mockingbird [20]. This threat is inferred from the geographic expansion of the Chalk-browed Mockingbird into deforested areas along the Atlantic coast, creating a novel competitive context. Competition may occur through various mechanisms, including resource competition (e.g., food and nesting site) or behavioral interference, particularly in altered environments where resources are scarce or habitat structure favors one species over the other. Therefore, a reduction in geographic overlap, although not yet confirmed by detailed field studies on direct interaction, could reduce the competitive pressure on the Tropical Mockingbird, potentially enhancing its abundance and long-term population viability. Future studies aimed at quantifying interspecific competition in sympatric zones will be essential to empirically validate this inference.

Our models indicate that the Tropical Mockingbird would have some advantages as the temperature increases. The future increase in highly suitable areas for this species may be related to its ability to survive in warmer environments, such as in sand-coastal plains. On the other hand, the decrease in suitable habitats in the southern distribution of the Tropical Mockingbird will increase the extirpation risk of its southern populations. As predicted for Neotropical savanna birds [10,11], there is also a concern that areas that will become suitable for many species in the future have not yet been protected to effectively ensure their population persistence [84]. As the Tropical Mockingbird is threatened in southeastern Brazil [25,26], this scenario further highlights the conservation importance of the restinga ecosystem as a strategy to decrease the extinction risk of the Tropical Mockingbird in its southern distribution limit [20,42].

Our results demonstrate the divergent responses of two congeneric species to projected climate changes, highlighting the potential for the restoration of allopatry in a novel ecological context. These findings underscore the urgent need for dynamic environmental policies that are tailored to local ecological context and species-specific traits. Based on the results of this study, coupled with the recent reports for Tropical Mockingbird [20,42], we strongly advocate for the immediate creation of fully protected reserves within the restinga ecosystem. Moreover, continuous monitoring of the Tropical Mockingbird populations is essential to support adaptive conservation strategies, such as the establishment of protected areas with flexible boundaries or protection levels that can be adjusted in response to climate-induced shifts in species distribution [85]. This proactive and adaptive approach is important not only for the conservation of this endangered species but also for the development of a more resilient biodiversity management framework in the face of ongoing climate change, offering valuable insights applicable to similar contexts worldwide.