Climate Changes Can Restore Allopatry Between Two Congeneric Birds in the Atlantic Forest
by
, , , and
Vitor Araujo-Lima
1,
Rayane dos Santos Oliveira
1,
Marcio Mageski
1,
Rodrigo Barbosa Ferreira
1,2 and
Charles Duca
1,3,* 1
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ecossistemas, Universidade Vila Velha, Campus Boa Vista, Vila Velha 29102-920, ES, Brazil
2
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Campus Goiabeiras, Vitória 29075-910, ES, Brazil
3
Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 30535-901, MG, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Birds 2025, 6(3), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/birds6030042
Submission received: 21 May 2025
/
Revised: 10 August 2025
/
Accepted: 11 August 2025
/
Published: 13 August 2025
Simple Summary
Some species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct due to climate changes. We aim to understand how climate changes would affect the potential distribution of two congeneric birds in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. We use data for both species from the literature and online platforms to model their future distribution under climate change. The models predicted that the two species would respond differently to the ongoing climatic changes. Tropical Mockingbird tended to increase its suitable area by 3.5% in the optimistic scenario (minimum temperature increase by 2060) and 2.5% in the pessimistic scenario (maximum temperature increase by 2060), relative to the 1960–1990 baseline. Chalk-browed Mockingbird tended to decrease its suitable area by 64% in the optimistic scenario and by 65% in the pessimistic scenario. The two future scenarios of temperature increase predicted that the co-occurrence between the species will be rare, with the two species becoming separated by climatically unsuitable areas. Our results highlighted the need for environmental policies considering local context and associated species traits.
Abstract
The climate is expected to change substantially by the end of the current century. In response to climate change, species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct. We aim to assess how the climate changes predicted to occur by 2060 may affect the potential distribution of Tropical Mockingbird (Mimus gilvus antelius) and Chalk-browed Mockingbird (Mimus saturninus frater) within the Atlantic Forest domain, Brazil. Occurrence data for both species were compiled from the scientific literature and online biodiversity databases. A total of 118 georeferenced records were obtained for Tropical Mockingbird and 1080 for Chalk-browed Mockingbird. Species distribution models predicted that the two species would respond differently to the ongoing climatic changes. The Tropical Mockingbird will slightly expand its suitable habitat by 3.5% (3871 km2) under the optimistic scenario (minimum temperature increase by 2060; Representative Concentration Pathways-RCP 2.6) and 2.5% (2765 km2) in the pessimistic scenario (maximum temperature increase by 2060; RPC 8.5), relative to the 1960–1990 baseline. Chalk-browed Mockingbird will reduce its suitable habitat by 64% (70,780 km2) under RPC 2.6 and 65% (71,886 km2) under RPC 8.5. The two future climate scenarios suggest that sympatry between the two species will become increasingly rare, with a shift toward allopatry due to emerging climatically unsuitable areas separating their distributions. Our results highlighted the importance of environmental policies that incorporate local ecological contexts and species-specific traits to mitigate biodiversity loss under future climate conditions.
