Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment in Pulp Paper Industrial Properties under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in North-Western Portugal †
by
, , and
Chiara Bruni
1,*, 
Bruno Aparício
1,
Akli Benali
1,
Beatriz Lourenço
1,
Martinho Marta-Almeida
2,
Susana Barreiro
1,
Alfredo Rocha
3 and
Ana Sá
1 1
Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
2
Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña, IEO-CSIC, 15001 A Coruña, Spain
3
CESAM—Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
Presented at the Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk, Sardinia, Italy, 3–6 May 2022.
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017126
Published: 16 September 2022
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
Since the 1960s, Portugal has been affected by land use/land cover changes, resulting, nationwide, in an increase in fuel contiguity, availability and fire proneness. Within this framework, the assets of pulp paper industries are exposed to large wildfires, which may cause severe economic losses. Science-based information can provide relevant information to effectively allocate resources and protect values at risk.
We assessed wildfire hazard in a 115,000 ha landscape in North-Western Portugal, including 4000 ha of industrial properties where a wildfire risk analysis was performed. We used the Minimum Travel Time algorithm to estimate Burn Probability (BP), Fire Size (FS) and Conditional Flame Length (CFL). The model was calibrated using historical fires above 100 ha that occurred between 2001 and 2019. We located the ignition, determined the active fire spread duration and compiled daily weather data (temperature, air moisture, wind speed and direction). We simulated fire spread over 24 h, using the 97th percentile historical weather conditions and historic ignition probability surface. We mapped landscape hazard and assessed wildfire risk in terms of expected economic losses in eucalyptus productive stands, by combining the annual BP (aBP) with potential losses, estimated based on forest management costs, loss of revenue and burned wood selling.
Our results show maximum BP estimation in non-industrial eucalyptus plantations. Among pulp properties, stands between 6 and 9 years are the most exposed, based on BP and FS. Very large wildfires (FS ≥ 5000 ha) can potentially occur in 53% of the landscape, affecting 75% of the area of young industrial eucalyptus (0–5 years). About 30% of the industrial productive area showed risk above 100 EUR/ha. The 90th percentile of the risk values ranges from 227 to 445 EUR/ha, corresponding to 9% of the productive area. This information can support science-driven wildfire prevention plans at the landscape and industrial scale.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, A.S.; methodology, C.B., B.A., A.B., B.L., M.M.-A., S.B., A.R. and A.S.; formal analysis C.B., B.L. and B.A.; writing—original draft preparation, C.B.; writing—review and editing, C.B., B.A., A.B., B.L., M.M.-A., S.B., A.R. and A.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was funded by the Forest Research Centre research unit, funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. (FCT), Portugal (UIDB/00239/2020). C. B. grant was supported by the project foRESTER, a project funded by FCT (PCIF/SSI/0102/2017). B.A. was supported by the individual research grant from the FCT (UI/BD/150755/2020). A. B. was supported by the research contract (CEECIND/03799/2018/CP1563/CT0003). A.S. was supported under the framework of the contract-program nr.1382 (DL 57/2016/CP1382/CT0026). The participation M.M.A. and A.R. was financially supported by CESAM by FCT/MCTES (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020+LA/P/0094/2020), through national funds.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Bruni, C.; Aparício, B.; Benali, A.; Lourenço, B.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Barreiro, S.; Rocha, A.; Sá, A. Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment in Pulp Paper Industrial Properties under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in North-Western Portugal. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17, 126. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017126
AMA Style
Bruni C, Aparício B, Benali A, Lourenço B, Marta-Almeida M, Barreiro S, Rocha A, Sá A. Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment in Pulp Paper Industrial Properties under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in North-Western Portugal. Environmental Sciences Proceedings. 2022; 17(1):126. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017126
Chicago/Turabian StyleBruni, Chiara, Bruno Aparício, Akli Benali, Beatriz Lourenço, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Barreiro, Alfredo Rocha, and Ana Sá. 2022. "Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment in Pulp Paper Industrial Properties under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in North-Western Portugal" Environmental Sciences Proceedings 17, no. 1: 126. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017126
