In recent years, the EU has implemented several firefighting-related policies to battle and reduce the negative impacts of wildfires. However, the changing environment constantly surprises us with extreme events that cause massive losses for the entire Europe, with the Mediterranean region increasing its vulnerability to these risks. Recently, the wildfire season for the region was observed to have lengthened, and along with the rapid change in fire-weather factors, resulted to extreme wildfire events. As of 2022, total burned area for the EU is recorded to be approx. 792,902 (66% forest) (EFFIS Damage Assessment, 2022). It has long been recognized that the Mediterranean cultural landscape is fire-prone, hence decision-makers see to it that responses and solutions are devoted at mitigating and reducing fire risk. With the advocacy of a paradigm shift to coexist with fire, anticipation of fire incidents is the best approach partnered with comprehensive management. Various studies on wildfires provide geospatial insights and models to foresee fire occurrence, burning extent, success in initial attack, ignition probability, etc.
This study aims to recognize and understand wildfire activity by forecasting the occurrence of extreme wildfire events in the near future. The approach is based on coupling ignition and escape models to climate (C3S) and landcover-change (SEDAC) projections to outline the spatial distribution of wildfires up to 2100. We calibrated a series of binary regression models upon historical records of wildfire ignition in Catalonia (Northeast of Spain) using machine-learning techniques under different land cover change and climate scenarios. Disaster risk reduction will be improved through this prediction by identifying wildfire management zones and prioritization of areas.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, M.R. and A.A.; Methodology, F.G.C., M.R. and A.A.; software, M.R. and A.A.; Formal analysis, F.G.C. and M.R.; Investigation, F.G.C., M.R. and A.A.; data curation, F.G.C.; Writing—original draft preparation, F.G.C., M.R., and A.A.; writing–reviewing and editing, F.G.C., M.R. and A.A.; visualization, M.R.; supervision, M.R.; project administration, M.R.; funding acquisition, M.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This work was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [grant numbers FIREPATHS (PID2020-116556RA-I00). F.G.C was funded with a scholarship by the MSc in European Forestry Programme at the University of Lleida. This work was also funded by project FirEUrisk—DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC, RISK-WISE STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003890.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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