Economic Impacts of Disasters and Economic Events on Commercial Fishery—The Case of Mississippi Blue Crabs
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
Comments and Suggestions for Authors1. Whether the secondary data used in the study (including Figures 1 and 2) after 2015 includes oysters because Lines 30-32 mention that Due to the confidentiality of crab and oyster processing data in Mississippi, the economic contribution of the two species to the total seafood industry has been combined since 2015?
2. The prices or output values ​​in the manuscript are evaluated using nominal prices. If price index adjustments are taken into account, it is recommended to be carefully evaluated whether it will affect the distortion of the comparison results across years.
3. The study uses the Mean-Difference Model and compares three periods from 2000 to 2022. However, the benchmark period for each period is either five years or three years. However, this discussion needs more theoretical or related discussion support. It is recommended that a Supplementary explanation of the research design of the selection method is provided.
4. The Marine Economic Recovery Model (3.3) selects variables such as unemployment rate, BCS water released, COVID-19 days, etc., but what are its assumptions? The purpose and assumptions of this model are not clearly discussed.
5. Economic impact uses IMPLAN data for analysis. In addition to the unclear discussion of using variables, the manuscript does not provide (present) relevant narrative statistics, and the overall discussion is relatively weak.
Author Response
Journal Oceans (ISSN 2673-1924)
Manuscript ID oceans-3211044
Type Article
Title: Economic Impacts of Disasters and Economic Events on Commercial Fishery - The Case of Mississippi Blue Crabs
Authors: Benedict Posadas *
RESPONSES TO COMMENTS OF REVIEWER IN ROUND 1:
Open Review
(x) I would not like to sign my review report
( ) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper.
( ) The English is very difficult to understand/incomprehensible.
( ) Extensive editing of the English language is required.
( ) Moderate editing of the English language is required.
( ) Minor editing of English language required.
(x) English language fine. No issues were detected.
|
Yes |
Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
|
|
Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
( ) |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
|
Is the research design appropriate? |
( ) |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
|
Are the methods adequately described? |
( ) |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
|
Are the results clearly presented? |
( ) |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
|
Do the results support the conclusions? |
( ) |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
Comments and Suggestions for Authors
- Whether the secondary data used in the study (including Figures 1 and 2) after 2015 includes oysters because Lines 30-32 mention that Due to the confidentiality of crab and oyster processing data in Mississippi, the economic contribution of the two species to the total seafood industry has been combined since 2015?
Response: The confidentiality of data refers to the crab processing data and not the crab commercial landings data. The reduction in the number of crab processors in Mississippi to less than three plants made it impossible to get crab processing data for public use. According to federal law, data are made public when more than three businesses report said data to maintain data privacy.
- The prices or output values ​​in the manuscript are evaluated using nominal prices. If price index adjustments are taken into account, it is recommended to be carefully evaluated whether it will affect the distortion of the comparison results across years.
Response: The data in the economic recovery model covered were limited from 1995 to 2022. The main reason is that there was no data available before that on diesel fuel prices. The dockside values of Mississippi blue crab landings used in the economic recovery model were from 1995 to 2022. The U.S. consumer price index deflates the annual dockside values from 1995 to 2022 and converted into 2024 dollars.
The dockside values of Mississippi blue crab landings used in the mean-difference covered 2000 to 2022. The annual U.S. consumer price index deflates the annual dockside values and converted into 2024 dollars.
- The study uses the Mean-Difference Model and compares three periods from 2000 to 2022. However, the benchmark period for each period is either five years or three years. However, this discussion needs more theoretical or related discussion support. It is recommended that a Supplementary explanation of the research design of the selection method is provided.
Response: NOAA Fisheries (17) defined the "typical damages to the commercial fishing sector included revenues losses and structural damages to processor and dealer facilities, loss of product, damages to commercial fishing vessels, and lost gear." This paper measures direct loss caused by a disaster regarding income and production value reduction.
The author had been involved in disaster assessment since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Then, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 affected the entire Gulf of Mexico. Then, the Bonnet Carre Spillway disasters in 2011 and 2019. Along the way, the method used by Gulf states marine economists and NOAA fisheries economists improved as more reliable data and models were developed.
This paper is the author's first attempt to publish a journal article on the methods he developed to assess the combined and individual impacts of disasters and economic events on marine fisheries. The economic models he had been empirically estimating include the mean-difference and marine economic recovery models.
The mean-difference model estimates losses associated with a major disaster by comparing the values of selected economic indicators during the year the disaster occurred to their means during the benchmark period. The benchmark period is the years immediately preceding the year the disaster occurred. It is preferred to be at least three consecutive years without any other major disaster. Losses occur when the current values are less than the benchmark means.
Three benchmark periods were selected for the major disaster events during the past two decades. The benchmark period for Hurricane Katrina was from 2000 to 2004. These five years were selected as the benchmark since no major disasters occurred during these years.
The benchmark period for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and 2011 Bonnet Carre Spillway opening started from 2007 to 2009. These three years were designated as the benchmark since no major disaster struck during these years.
The benchmark period for the 2019 Bonnet Carre Spillway openings and the COVID-19 pandemic was from 2014 to 2018. These five years were chosen as the benchmark since no major disasters happened during these years.
- The Marine Economic Recovery Model (3.3) selects variables such as unemployment rate, BCS water released, COVID-19 days, etc., but what are its assumptions? The purpose and assumptions of this model are not clearly discussed.
Response: The marine economic recovery model is defined by Eq. 1 as Y = , where Y – real dockside values, X – measurable output and real input prices, disasters and economic events, and - error term. The independent variables include commercial landings, time, real fuel prices, unemployment rates, magnitude and duration of disasters, and economic events. This model was adopted from the initial versions of the marine economic recovery model developed for the Mississippi oyster fishery (19, 20, 21).
Recent disasters included major hurricanes, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the opening of the Bonnet Carre spillway, and harmful algal blooms. Hurricane Katrina destroyed fishing vessels and seafood facilities, including crab fishing vessels, fishing gear, and processing plants. The massive oil spill in April 2010 damaged the Gulf of Mexico States marine ecosystem and prolonged the closure of state and federal waters to fishing activities. The prolonged opening of the Bonnet Carre Spill from May to June 2011 led to a massive intrusion of freshwater into the Mississippi Sound. The prolonged opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway twice from March to July 2019 led to a massive intrusion of freshwater into the Mississippi Sound, leading to water quality deterioration and harmful algal blooms. These disasters are assumed to have negatively affected the real dockside values of commercial blue crab landings.
The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on Mar.13, 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from February to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices in the Gulf Coast rose to $4.68 per gallon in 2022, more than 50 percent higher than the previous year. These economic events are also assumed to negatively affect the real dockside values of blue crab commercial landings.
Please see Table 1. Description and summary of the variables included in the marine economic recovery model of the Mississippi blue crab fishery, 1995-2022.
- Economic impact uses IMPLAN data for analysis. In addition to the unclear discussion of using variables, the manuscript does not provide (present) relevant narrative statistics, and the overall discussion is relatively weak.
Response: The discussion about the use of IMPLAN software is presented in lines 185 to 223.
IMPLAN is a software model and data application that estimates the economic impact of a given event or activity in a specific geographic area. IMPLAN stands for "impact analysis for planning". IMPLAN uses an input-output model to track the flow of dollars between different sectors of the economy. This model can calculate an event or policy change's direct, indirect, and induced impacts. The total impact of these effects is called the multiplier, and each sector of the economy has its unique multiplier. IMPLAN was originally developed in the 1970s by academics to help the United States Forest Service. It is now used by anyone who wants to understand their economy better. https://support.implan.com/hc/en-us/articles/360038285254-How-IMPLAN-Works.
Submission Date
31 August 2024
Date of this review
02 Oct 2024 16:30:53
Author Response File: 
Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 2 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsIn your paper you measure the economic impact of man-made and natural disasters on Mississippi blue crabs using two models of analysis - the Mean-Difference model and the marine economic recovery model:
“This paper developed two approaches to measuring the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery. These economic models include the Mean-Difference model and the marine economic recovery model”. (lines 87-91)
Your paper is clear and well organised, but before I recommend its acceptance, I would like you to respond to the following three queries.
(1) Can you add a note at the end of your Abstract explaining the importance of your findings? In your Abstract, you state:
“This paper measures the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on 8 commercial dockside values of Mississippi blue crab fishery…The estimated marine economic recovery model explained 94 percent of the variations of the real dockside values. Four independent variables are statistically significant, including blue crab landings, time, unemployment rate, and average volume of water released from the Bonnet Carre Spillway openings”.
Why are these important results? On lines 84-85, you state the following as one of your three objectives:
“To estimate the economic impacts of recent major disasters and economic events on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery”.
Are there any policy implications of this estimation or is it solely of academic interest? On lines 309-314, you suggest your modelling analysis could help other commercial fisheries to develop.
“Using this modeling approach, models for other commercial fisheries can be developed. This marine economic recovery modeling allows for projections of the future trends of commercial fishing as it recovers after major disasters and financial events.”
This implies two claims: (a) that your marine economic recovery modelling analysis has helped the Mississippi blue crab fishery to develop; and (b) that it can help other commercial fisheries to develop. What evidence can you provide for claims (a) and (b)?
I note that you do not claim that your analysis of the Mean-Difference model helps either the Mississippi blue crab fishery or other commercial fisheries. On lines 78-79, you refer only to the marine economic recovery model:
“This paper aims to develop a marine economic recovery model for a commercial blue crab fishery based on long-term secondary data”.
Does this mean the Mean-Difference model does not help the Mississippi blue crab fishery or other commercial fisheries?
(2) On lines 27-28, you say:
“crab processing data were combined with oyster processing data to maintain the confidentiality of processing data”.
Why was it necessary to keep processing data secret?
(3) On lines 50-53, you report a conclusion reached by previous scholars about the impact on the blue crab fishery of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010:
“Their findings suggest the 2010 oil spill led to substantial, short-term losses to the blue crab fishery. They also observed that the blue crab fishery exhibited high resilience and recovered quickly after removing the fishing closures”.
Does this suggest the fishing closures should have been removed earlier – or perhaps should never have been imposed at all?
Author Response
Journal Oceans (ISSN 2673-1924)
Manuscript ID oceans-3211044
Type Article
Title: Economic Impacts of Disasters and Economic Events on Commercial Fishery - The Case of Mississippi Blue Crabs
Authors: Benedict Posadas *
RESPONSES TO COMMENTS OF REVIEWER IN ROUND 2:
Review Report Form
Open Review
( ) I would not like to sign my review report
(x) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper.
( ) The English is very difficult to understand/incomprehensible.
( ) Extensive editing of the English language is required.
( ) Moderate editing of the English language is required.
( ) Minor editing of English language required.
(x) English language fine. No issues were detected.
|
Yes |
Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
|
|
Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Is the research design appropriate? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the methods adequately described? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the results clearly presented? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Do the results support the conclusions? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
Comments and Suggestions for Authors
In your paper you measure the economic impact of man-made and natural disasters on Mississippi blue crabs using two models of analysis - the Mean-Difference model and the marine economic recovery model:
"This paper developed two approaches to measuring the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery. These economic models include the Mean-Difference and marine economic recovery models". (lines 87-91)
Your paper is clear and well organized, but I would like you to respond to the following three queries before I accept it.
Response: Thank you.
(1) Can you add a note at the end of your Abstract explaining the importance of your findings? In your Abstract, you state:
"This paper measures the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on 8 commercial dockside values of Mississippi blue crab fishery…The estimated marine economic recovery model explained 94 percent of the variations of the real dockside values. Four independent variables are statistically significant, including blue crab landings, time, unemployment rate, and average volume of water released from the Bonnet Carre Spillway openings".
Response: Added more sentences to the abstract
Abstract: Impact assessments are necessary for supporting fisheries' disaster applications and management options for states affected by disasters. This paper measures the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on commercial dockside values of Mississippi blue crab fishery. The mean-difference model estimates the direct impacts when the current dockside values fall below the benchmark values. The marine economic recovery model identifies the significant determinants of the variations in the dockside values. Mean-difference model results indicate that the Mississippi blue crab fishery sustained direct loss due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, and the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway in 2011. The estimated marine economic recovery model explained 93 percent of the variations of the real dockside values. Two independent variables are statistically significant, including blue crab landings and time. The disaster variables have the expected signs but are not statistically significant. These methodologies' usefulness is applicable in assessing the direct impacts on fisheries and other economic sectors affected by disasters such as major hurricanes, oil spills, massive freshwater intrusion, and harmful algal blooms.
Why are these important results? On lines 84-85, you state the following as one of your three objectives:
"To estimate the economic impacts of recent major disasters and economic events on the Mississippi commercial blue crab fishery".
Response: Disasters and economic events affect the aggregate demand and supply of marine sector goods and services. Global pandemics and recessions set back aggregate demand. Tariffs, higher fuel costs, and disasters cut down aggregate supply. The economic resiliency of the marine sector is measured by its ability to recover to pre-disaster aggregate demand and supply levels.
Are there any policy implications of this estimation or is it solely of academic interest? On lines 309-314, you suggest your modelling analysis could help other commercial fisheries to develop.
"Using this modeling approach, models for other commercial fisheries can be developed. This marine economic recovery modeling allows for projections of the future trends of commercial fishing as it recovers after major disasters and financial events."
Response: Impact assessments are necessary for supporting fisheries' disaster applications and management options for states affected by disasters. Impact assessment methodologies have improved since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Rapid Impact assessment needs updated data on the economic industry affected by recent disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the 2011 and 2019 openings of the Bonnet Carre Spillway. The same methodologies can be applied to assess the direct impacts on other economic sectors affected by disasters.
This implies two claims: (a) that your marine economic recovery modeling analysis has helped the Mississippi blue crab fishery to develop; and (b) that it can help other commercial fisheries to develop. What evidence can you provide for claims (a) and (b)?
Response: The economic assessment helped the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources apply for federal disaster assistance after the 2011 Bonnet Carre Spillway disaster. Rapid disaster assessments conducted by the author during the 2019 Bonnet Carre Spillway disaster and the COVID-19 global pandemic provided preliminary information to state regulatory agencies, the seafood industry, and legislators to lobby for disaster assistance to the marine sectors.
I note that you do not claim that your analysis of the Mean-Difference model helps either the Mississippi blue crab fishery or other commercial fisheries. On lines 78-79, you refer only to the marine economic recovery model:
"This paper aims to develop a marine economic recovery model for a commercial blue crab fishery based on long-term secondary data".
Response: The author had been in disaster assessment since 2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Then, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 affected the entire Gulf of Mexico. Then, the Bonnet Carre Spillway disasters in 2011 and 2019. Along the way, the methods used by Gulf states marine economists and NOAA fisheries economists have improved as more reliable data and models are developed. This paper is the author's first attempt to publish a journal article on the methods he developed to assess the combined and individual impacts of disasters and economic events on marine fisheries. The economic models he had been empirically estimating include the mean-difference and marine economic recovery models. The author aims to share this disaster assessment method with interested coastal communities and residents, marine, agricultural, and coastal-related industries, business establishments and organizations, state and federal regulatory agencies, land and sea-grant research and extension staff, and interested students. Doing so will stimulate improvement in data monitoring, collection, compilation, analysis, and sharing for future damage assessments.
Does this mean the Mean-Difference model does not help the Mississippi blue crab fishery or other commercial fisheries?
Response: The mean-difference model estimates losses associated with a major disaster by comparing the values of selected economic indicators during the year the disaster occurred to their means during the benchmark period. The benchmark period is the years immediately preceding the year the disaster occurred. It is preferred to be at least three consecutive years without any other major disaster. Losses occur when the current values are less than the benchmark means. It is the most rapid method to support a fisheries disaster application by any state after a major disaster occurs. Federal disaster assistance is needed to restore the fisheries sectors affected by major disasters, such as hurricanes, oil spills, freshwater intrusion, and harmful algal blooms.
(2) On lines 27-28, you say:
"crab processing data were combined with oyster processing data to maintain the confidentiality of processing data".
Why was it necessary to keep processing data secret?
Response: The confidentiality of data refers to the crab processing data and not the crab commercial landings data. The reduction in the number of crab processors in Mississippi to less than three plants made it impossible to get crab processing data for public use. According to federal law, data are made public when more than three businesses report said data to maintain data privacy.
(3) On lines 50-53, you report a conclusion reached by previous scholars about the impact on the blue crab fishery of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010:
"Their findings suggest the 2010 oil spill led to substantial, short-term losses to the blue crab fishery. They also observed that the blue crab fishery exhibited high resilience and recovered quickly after removing the fishing closures".
Does this suggest the fishing closures should have been removed earlier – or perhaps should never have been imposed at all?
Response: The massive oil spill in April 2020 damaged the Gulf of Mexico's marine ecosystem and forced the closure of state and federal waters to fishing activities for several months. Individual state waters and federal waters imposed fishing closures due to the presence of oil in those areas. The state and federal waters were eventually open for fishing when oil was no longer observed in those waters.
Submission Date
31 August 2024
Date of this review29 Sep 2024 22:21:04
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Round 2
Reviewer 1 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsThe revised manuscript has a complete reply.
