2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Volcanic Phenomena, Hazard Maps and the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS)
2.3. Probability of Occurrence
2.4. Exposure-Based Risk Assessment
2.5. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
- PA and Radio Diffusion services
- Provisional shelters
- Electrical emergency supply
- Clean water supply
2.6. Failure and Event Tree Analysis
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|Alert Level||Expected Scenarios||Actions Recommended to SINAPROC|
|Phase 1||–The volcano is quiet|
–Sporadic seismic signals
|–Develop preparedness plans|
–Maintenance of monitoring devices
–Keep pubic informed
|Phase 2||–Low-level seismic activity recorded only at nearest stations|
–Some fumarolic activity
–Minor changes in temperature of fumaroles
–Minor changes in the composition of spring waters that do not affect its quality for agricultural and public use significantly
–Review of emergency plans
–Increase the dissemination of volcano information to the public
–Evacuation routes meeting sites
–Joint exercises and drills
|Phase 1||–Increase of low-level local seismicity|
–Gas or steam fumaroles, and/or light tephra emissions
–These manifestations may cause acidification of meteoric rain, and light tephra falls on towns surrounding the volcano. Some of them may pose a slight threat to air traffic
|–Check availability of staff, equipment and vehicles required for evacuations.|
–Ask the SC to define criteria limiting access to the volcano
–Issue warnings to the aircraft controllers.
VEI ≤ 2
|–Low to intermediate eruptive activity|
–Moderate explosions ejecting debris around the crater.
–The explosions may eject tephra and produce light to moderate tephra falls on nearby towns, and farther cities if the wind is strong.
–The tephra in the air may pose a threat to aircraft.
–Low-level pyroclastic flows and mudflows (lahars) may develop without reaching populated areas.
|–Keep shifts of emergency staff.|
–Increase the restricted access area around the volcano according to the recommendations of the SC.
–Issue warnings to the air navigation systems
–Anticipate a possible evacuation
|–Phreatic or magmatic eruptive activity of intermediate to high explosivity|
–Growth of lava domes, increased probability of magma ejection.
–Possibility of explosions of increasing intensity ejecting hot debris to significant distances (several kilometres).
–Conspicuous tephra fall on towns and cities.
|–Prepare staff and equipment for shelter operation.|
–Implement specific measures in most vulnerable areas.
–Start preventive measures against tephra and debris falls and lahars in highly vulnerable areas. (this may include some evacuations).
|–Possibility of more massive pyroclastic flows and lahars, not reaching populated areas.|
–Increased risk to aircraft and light effects on airports.
–Intermediate to large explosive eruptions producing eruptive columns capable of reaching the stratosphere
–The explosions may eject considerable amounts of tephra and fragments reaching the nearest towns
–Production of large-scale pyroclastic
flows and mudflows capable of reaching nearest towns and beyond
–Important tephra falls in towns at intermediate distances capable of producing roof collapses. Significant tephra falls in large cities around the volcano
–Serious threat to aircraft over large distances. Serious effects on airports
|–Increase of restricted area around the volcano|
–Alert all systems of air traffic and navigation.
–Selective evacuations according to criteria of the SC defined by the development and intensity of the eruption
–Inform and promote about auto-evacuations in selected areas
–Implement specific preventive measures against tephra and fragment falls in the regions near the volcano defined by the SC
–Implement specific preventive measures against pyroclastic flows, surges and lahars in the regions defined by the SC
–Implement preventive measures against moderate to intermediate tephra falls in metropolitan areas of proximal large cities
–Implement emergency plans to protect and maintain communication lines and water and food supply
–Nation-wide and international warnings to all aircraft and airports
VEI > 4
|–Large to an extreme eruption|
–Production of very large-scale volcanic clouds to the stratosphere.
–Possibility of massive sector collapse of the volcano producing extensive debris avalanches
–Massive pyroclastic flows
–Massive lahars reaching distances beyond the extent of the Hazards Map
–Devastation of the regions defined in the Hazard Map
–Intense tephra falls, and fragment fall on metropolitan areas in cities within a radius exceeding 100 km
–Maximum threat to all aircraft nation and continent-wide
–Serious threat to airports nation-wide
|–Extensive evacuations according to criteria of the SC defined by the evolution and intensity of the eruption|
–Inform and promote about voluntary evacuations over extended areas defined by the SC
–Implement specific preventive measures against intense tephra and fragment falls in the regions defined by the SC
–Implement specific preventive measures against massive debris flows, pyroclastic flows, surges and lahars in regions defined by the SC
–Implement preventive measures against intermediate to large tephra and fragment falls in metropolitan areas of proximal large cities, including anti-panic measures for the total blockage of sunlight
|Hazard||Relative Exposure of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan y/x||Qualitative Probability of Occurrence According to Hazard Cartography |
|Pyroclastic density currents||0.25||Minor|
|Lahar or mudflows||0.25||Minor|
|Debris avalanches||The village is located in the ‘exposed’ territory. However, avalanches are events with a relatively small probability of occurrence in the context of all considered phenomena. Value has been set to y/x = 1.|
|Bulk Tephra Volume||Plume Column Height||Qualitative Description||Stratospheric Injection||Mean Occurrence Rate (er/yr)||Probability of Occurrence within Any 20-Year Interval||Corresponding VTLAS Colour|
|2||<107 m3||1–5 km||Explosive||None||13/500||0.410||Yellow (2)|
|3||<108 m3||3–15 km||Possible||3/500||0.113||Yellow (2, 3) Red (1)|
|4||<109 m3||10–25 km||Cataclysmic|
|5||<1010 m3||>25 km||Certain||10/15,000||0.013||Red (2)|
|6||<1011 m3||>25 km||Certain||10/40,000||0.005||Red (2)|
|VTLAS Colour and Phase||Probability of Occurrence within a 20-Year Interval||Tephra|
|Pyroclastic Density Exposure: 0.25||Lahars or Mudflows|
|Yellow (1)||>0.410||Light emissions||-||-||-|
|Yellow (2)||≈0.410||Light to moderate||Low-level, without reaching populated areas.||Around the crater|
|Yellow (3) Evacuations may start||≈0.410||Conspicuous ashfall on towns and cities||Larger pyroclastic flows and lahars not reaching populated areas||-|
|0.113–0.410||Important ashfalls capable of producing roof collapses||Large-scale flows, capable of reaching nearest towns and beyond||-|
|<0.113||Intense ashfalls within a radius exceeding 100 km||Massive pyroclastic flows and lahars reaching distances beyond the extend of the Hazards Map||Extensive debris avalanches|
|Scenario||People Advised||People Safety during the Procedure||Procedural Time||Success||Optimal Conditions|
|I||Optimal||Optimal||Optimal||Total||-All people have received advice during the first stages of evacuation.|
-All people have a place in a vehicle or a shelter during evacuation.
-Procedural time is limited to one trip.
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