In-Season Wheat Yield Forecasting at High Resolution Using Regional Climate Model and Crop Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Weather Forecast Model—Model Specifications and Simulation Protocol
2.3. Weather Forecast Model—Quality Assessment
2.4. Crop Simulation Model—Description
2.5. Gridded Implementation of the Crop Model—Input Data Preparation
2.6. Crop Simulation Model—Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis
2.7. Simulation Experiments and Validation
3. Results
3.1. Calibration and Validation of Crop Model
3.2. District-Wise Aggregated Yields
3.3. Spatial Variability Yield Simulations
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Physics Options | Convective scheme | Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme [27] | |
Microphysics scheme | Lin scheme [28] | ||
Planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme | Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme [29] | ||
Longwave radiation scheme | Rapid radiative transfer model (RRTM) [30] | ||
Shortwave radiation scheme | Dudhia scheme [31] | ||
Land surface model | Multi-layer Noah land surface model [32] | ||
Spatial Domain | Domain 1 | 250 km (144 × 68 grid points) | Global coverage |
Domain 2 | 50 km (722 × 339 grid points) | Asian and African continents | |
Domain 3 | 10 km (3611 × 1695 grid points) | Northern India | |
Simulation Protocols | 1 week | 7 April 2009–17 April 2009 | |
2 weeks | 31 March 2009–17 April 2009 | ||
3 weeks | 24 March 2009–17 April 2009 | ||
5 weeks | 10 March 2009–17 April 2009 |
Lead-Time | Maximum Temperature (°C) | Minimum Temperature (°C) | Solar Radiation (MJ/m2) | Relative Humidity (%) | Precipitation (mm) | Wind Speed (m/s) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 week | 3.32 | 3.66 | 5.96 | 21.03 | 3.02 | 2.21 |
2 weeks | 4.06 | 3.80 | 5.86 | 18.46 | 4.29 | 2.37 |
3 weeks | 5.41 | 3.99 | 3.75 | 17.95 | 5.84 | 2.40 |
5 weeks | 8.71 | 4.33 | 4.32 | 23.40 | 6.75 | 2.66 |
Crop Details | Crop cultivar species | PBW 343 |
Crop duration | Long duration to about 155 days | |
Maximum crop height | 94.4 cm | |
Cultural Practices | Planting method | Seed sowing technique |
Planting distribution | Row-wise method with 20 cm row spacing | |
Plant population | 70 plants/m2 | |
Sowing depth | 6 cm | |
Irrigation Application | Irrigation method | furrow type |
Total irrigation depth | 70 cm | |
Stages of irrigation application | Crown root initiation (20–25 days after Sowing (DAS)) | |
Late tillering (40–45 DAS) | ||
Late jointing (65–75 DAS) | ||
Flowering (90–95 DAS) | ||
Milking (110–115 DAS) | ||
Dough-formation (120–125 DAS) | ||
Fertilizer Application | Urea (Ntirogen) | 110 kg/ha (applied at the time of sowing and during first irrigation) |
Phosphorous | 50 kg/ha (applied initially at the time of sowing) | |
Pottasium | 40 kg/ha (applied initially at the time of sowing) |
F1 | Whole-season NCEP-CFSR weather data |
F2 | NCEP-CFSR + 1-week WRF forecast |
F3 | NCEP-CFSR + 2-weeks WRF forecast |
F4 | NCEP-CFSR + 3-weeks WRF forecast |
F5 | NCEP-CFSR + 5-weeks WRF forecast |
Parameter Type | Parameters | Parameter Description | Units | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Genetic parameters of cultivar (development) | P1V | Vernalization sensitivity coefficient | %/d of unfulfilled vernalization | 20 |
P1D | Photoperiod sensitivity coefficient | % reduction/h near threshold | 80 | |
P5 | Thermal time from the onset of linear fill to maturity | °C.d (Growing Degree Days) | 610 | |
Genetic parameters of cultivar (growth) | G1 | Kernel number per unit stem to the spike weight at anthesis | #/g | 20 |
G2 | Potential kernel growth rate | mg/(kernel.d) | 55 | |
G3 | Standard stem and spike weight when elongation ceases | g | 1.5 | |
PHINT | Thermal time between the appearance of leaf tips | °C.d | 90 | |
Ecotype (phenology) | P1 | Duration of phase end juvenile to terminal spikelet | °C.d | 270 |
P2 | Duration of phase terminal spikelet to end leaf growth | °C.d | 350 | |
P3 | Duration of phase end leaf growth to end spike growth | °C.d | 185 | |
P4 | Duration of phase end spike growth to end grain fill lag | °C.d | 200 | |
PARUV and PARUR | Photo-synthetically active radiation (PAR) conversion to dry matter ratio | g/MJ | 2.8 | |
Species temperature response during grain filling | T (base) | Base temperature, below which increase in grain weight is zero | °C | 0 |
T (opt1) | 1st optimum temperature, at which increase in grain weight is most rapid | °C | 16 | |
T (opt2) | The 2nd optimum temperature, highest temperature at which increase in grain weight is still at its maximum | °C | 25 | |
T (max) | Maximum temperature, at which increase in grain weight is zero | °C | 38 |
Forecast Scenarios | RMSE (Kg/Ha) | MAPE (%) | RD (%) | Agreement Index |
---|---|---|---|---|
F1 | 622.52 | 13.35 | −11.53 | 0.59 |
F2 | 505.23 | 10.77 | −10.77 | 0.77 |
F3 | 422.82 | 8.33 | −8.27 | 0.82 |
F4 | 327.75 | 6.26 | −5.35 | 0.86 |
F5 | 415.15 | 8.05 | 2.77 | 0.41 |
Growth Stages | Emergence | Crown Root Initiation (CRI) | Tillering | Jointing and Booting | Flowering | Grain Filling | Maturity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth Period | Nov | Early Dec–Mid-Dec | Mid-Dec–Early Jan | Mid-Jan–Late Jan | Early Feb | Mid-Feb–Mid-Mar | Late Mar–Early Apr |
Optimal Max Temp (°C) | 20–35 | 21–29 | 20–29 | 18–28 | 19–22 | 20–24 | 28–35 |
Optimal Min Temp (°C) | 3.5–5.5 | 6–13 | 7–16 | 6–9 | 7–10 | 7–12 | 8–18 |
Optimal RH (%) | 50–70 | 40–90 | 40–90 | 55–95 | 55–80 | 30–75 | 40–75 |
Sunshine hours (hrs/day) | 3.5–8 | 4–7.5 | 4–7.2 | 4.5–6.5 | 4.5–6.5 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
Rainfall (mm) | 0–4 | 4–19 | 4–24 | 15–115 | 40–142 | 20–60 | 0–10 |
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Kirthiga, S.M.; Patel, N.R. In-Season Wheat Yield Forecasting at High Resolution Using Regional Climate Model and Crop Model. AgriEngineering 2022, 4, 1054-1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriengineering4040066
Kirthiga SM, Patel NR. In-Season Wheat Yield Forecasting at High Resolution Using Regional Climate Model and Crop Model. AgriEngineering. 2022; 4(4):1054-1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriengineering4040066
Chicago/Turabian StyleKirthiga, S. M., and N. R. Patel. 2022. "In-Season Wheat Yield Forecasting at High Resolution Using Regional Climate Model and Crop Model" AgriEngineering 4, no. 4: 1054-1075. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriengineering4040066