Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Algorithms: A Survey and Future Directions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Scope and Objectives
- Comprehensive Parameter Analysis: Beyond simply identifying common parameters key influential parameters that have been considered for algorithmic methods used in cryptocurrency price prediction, this review includes an exploration of less-studied parameters, offering insights into their underutilised potential.
- Methodological Innovation: By examining state-of-the-art methodologies, this review highlights the evolution of predictive models from basic statistical approaches to sophisticated machine learning and deep learning techniques. It critically assesses the applicability of these models in real-world market scenarios, and a novel evaluation on how they utilise the various data sources available; and
- Future Research Directions: Based on the identified shortcomings, research challenges and gaps in the literature, this review proposes research avenues to help guide future research directions.
2. Methodology
2.1. Paper Selection
2.2. Duplicate Removal
2.3. Results Filtering
- Language and Scope: This review specifically targets studies that utilise algorithmic methodologies such as state-of-the-art computational techniques (including machine learning, deep learning, etc.), and other advanced statistical techniques capable of handling large dataset and extracting predictive insights from complex market dynamics. Studies not written in English, or primarily employing traditional economic or financial models without integration of these advanced state-of-the-art techniques were excluded.
- Relevance to Cryptocurrency Price Prediction: Studies were also excluded that did not directly aim to predict cryptocurrency prices through quantitative models. For instance, papers primarily using traditional or theoretical economic analysis or financial forecasting models, without empirical testing or incorporating advanced computational techniques, were not considered.
- Methodological Rigor: Studies lacking in rigorous mathematical analysis evident from either the absence of rigorous statistical analysis or failure to report essential performance metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, or mean squared error were excluded. Additionally, studies that do not provide proper validation methods for their predictive models or fail to describe their methodologies transparently were also excluded. It was crucial that included studies demonstrated substantial mathematical outcomes with sufficient validation or justifications of there methods used, that contribute directly to the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.
2.4. Initial Review
3. Influential Parameters for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
3.1. Price and Volume
3.2. Technical Indicators
3.3. Blockchain Features
3.4. Social Media Sentiment
- Examples of data extraction include:
- Twitter: Tweets containing specific keywords or hashtags, tweets posted by certain influential users or institutions, and tweets posted by users with a specific minimum or maximum number of followers. Some previous works have also extracted data by using keywords and hashtags relating to specific equities or equity markets, for example, Kilimci [22] used “BitcoinDollar”, “BitcoinUSD”, “BTCDollar”, “BTCUSD” for the extraction of Bitcoin related tweets. Others have used posts that contain explicit statements of the user’s mood states, for example, Bollen et al. [27] used posts with the expressions “I feel”, “I am feeling”, “I don’t feel”, “I’m”. These data points can be leveraged to gauge market sentiment and predict potential price movements based on the emotional tone and public reactions to market events or news [21,22,23,24,26,27,28,29,35,36,42,50,61,103,106,107,109,110,111,112,113].
- Reddit: Analysis of comments and posts in both general and specific cryptocurrency-related subreddits. This involves tracking the frequency and sentiment of posts about specific cryptocurrencies or the overall cryptocurrency market as a whole, and examining the community engagement that follows specific and general market-related events. For instance, the subreddit r/Bitcoin frequently features discussions that reflect user sentiments ranging from bullish to bearish, which correlate with market movements [114]. During specific events like regulatory announcements or technological advancements (e.g., Bitcoin halving), the increase in posting frequency and shift in sentiment can be significant indicators of market. Additionally subreddits such as r/CryptoCurrency and r/Bitcoin are pivotal in gathering collective investor sentiment, such as threads discussing new ICOs or tokens may serve as early indicators of market interest or skepticism [114,115,116,117].
- Methodological Considerations for Social Media Sentiment Data:
3.5. Summary of Influential Parameters Used
4. Recent Methodologies Employed
4.1. Machine Learning Based Prediction
4.2. Deep Learning Based Prediction
4.3. Hybrid Deep Learning Based Prediction
4.4. Open-Source Contributions in Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Research
4.5. Comparative Summary of Methodological Aspects
5. Discussion
5.1. Influential Parameters
5.2. Prediction Models
Evaluation of Model Accuracy and Reliability
5.3. Research Focus
5.4. Performance Indicators
6. Future Directions in Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
6.1. Enhancing Predictive Models with Advanced Technologies
6.1.1. Exploring Transformer Capabilities
6.1.2. Hybrid Model Innovations
6.2. Strengthening Feature Analysis
6.2.1. Deepening Technical Indicator and Blockchain Feature Analysis
6.2.2. Enhancing the Incorporation of Market Sentiment and Social Media Data
6.3. Enhancing Real-World Application and Profitability of Prediction Models
6.3.1. Integrating Practical Profitability Metrics and Usability
6.3.2. Regulatory Compliance and Ethical Considerations
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Ref. | Year | Data Source | Methodology | Data Collection Period | Performance Indicators | Task Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
[25] | 2014 | Social Media Posts | Bayesian Regression | Every 2 s—over 200 million data points | Double the investment in less than 60 day period | Regression |
[21] | 2015 | Social Media Posts | Naive Bayes, logistic regression, and SVM | 21 Days | Accuracy = 95% | Classification |
[40] | 2015 | Price and 16 Blockchain Features | Random forests, SVM, GLM | 5 Days | Sign Prediction Accuracy = 98.5% | Classification |
[23] | 2017 | Social Media Posts | Sentiment Analysis—VADER | 31 Days | Accuracy = 83% | Classification |
[24] | 2018 | 500 tweets extracted every day | 5 regression algorithms and 11 classification algorithms | 3 Months | Regression accuracy = 70%, Naive Bayes accuracy = 89.65% Random Forest Classification accuracy = 85.78% | Classification & Regression |
[39] | 2019 | 29 Blockchain features | DNN, LSTM, CNN, DNR | 2590 Days | Profitability Analysis | Classification |
[41] | 2019 | Price and Volume | LSTM, ARIMA, Bayesian regression, SVM | 1839 days | LSTM RMSE = 33.7091 | Classification |
[22] | 2020 | 17629 tweets | Sentiment analysis, various Deep learning algorithms, Word embeddings | 92 Days | Word Embedding accuracy = 89.13% | Classification |
[102] | 2020 | 12 technical indicators and price | Deep-ConvLSTM | 729 days | MSE = 7.2487, RMSE = 2.6923 | Classification |
[26] | 2020 | Price and Volume, Social Media Sentiment | VADER, ARIMAX, LSTM | 944 days | LSTM MSE = 0.000304 | Classification |
[3] | 2020 | Price and Volume | LSTM-GRU | 1851 Days | 1, 3, 7 day MAPE of 4.0727, 6.2754, 19.3493 | Classification |
[37] | 2021 | Price and Volume, 7 Technical indicators | Deep and hybrid Deep Learning | 74 days | MAPE= 2.4076 | Classification |
[4] | 2021 | Price | LSTM-GRU | 1736 days | Litecoin MSE = 0.02038, Zcash MSE = 0.00461 | Classification |
Influential Parameter | Benefits | Challenges |
---|---|---|
Price and Volume |
|
|
Technical Indicators |
|
|
Blockchain Features |
|
|
Social Media Sentiment (Twitter & Reddit) |
|
|
Ref. | Year | Data Sources | Methodology | Language | Code URL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[34] | 2020 | Financial Data | DoubleEnsemble, DNN, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree | Python | https://github.com/microsoft/qlib/tree/main/examples/benchmarks/DoubleEnsemble (accessed on 1 May 2024) |
[36] | 2021 | Blockchain-Based Cryptocurrency Price Changes | LSTM | Python | https://github.com/cybertraining-dsc/su21-reu-361 (accessed on 1 May 2024) |
[60] | 2022 | Public Twitter Data | Several Deep Learning Architectures | Python | https://github.com/meakbiyik/ask-who-not-what (accessed on 1 May 2024) |
[35] | 2022 | Public Twitter Data | Different Convolutional Layers, LSTM | Python | https://github.com/mmghahramanibozandan/MyPaper_DL_ML_Fin (accessed on 1 May 2024) |
[61] | 2022 | Historical Price, Public Twitter Data | Synthesiser Transformer models | Python | https://github.com/dorienh/bitcoin_synthesizer (accessed on 1 May 2024) |
Data Source | Benefits | Challenges |
---|---|---|
Machine Learning |
|
|
Deep Learning |
|
|
Hybrid Deep Learning |
|
|
Ref. | Year | ML Approach | Features | Performance Metrics |
---|---|---|---|---|
[25] | 2014 | Bayesian Regression | Historical Price and Volume | Investment Doubling in <60 days |
[122] | 2015 | Statistical Analysis | Historical Price | Volatility Analysis, Risk Measures (VaR, ES) |
[32] | 2017 | Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) | Historical price, Blockchain Features, macroeconomic indexes | RMSE: 0.0031, MAPE: 0.0325 |
[56] | 2018 | Bayesian Optimised RNN and LSTM Networks | Historical price | Highest classification accuracy: 52%, RMSE: 8%; Outperformed ARIMA model; GPU implementation was 67.7% faster than CPU. |
[54] | 2018 | GARCH Model, SVR | Historical Price, Volatility measures | RMSE: 0.0313, MAE: 0.01315 |
[39] | 2019 | DNN, LSTM, CNN, ResNet, Ensemble, SVM | Bitcoin blockchain features | MAPE: DNN = 3.61, LSTM = 3.79, CNN = 4.27, ResNet = 4.95, Ensemble = 4.02, SVM = 4.75 |
[45] | 2020 | LSTM with AR(2) Model | Historical Price | MSE: 4574.12, RMSE: 9.08, MAE: 9.75, MAPE: 0.15 |
[49] | 2020 | CNN-LSTM, CNN, MLP, RFBNN | Historical Price | Accuracy CNN-LSTM: BTC = 0.6106, Dash = 0.7412, ETH = 0.5899, LTC = 0.6763, XMR = 0.7994, XRP = 0.6704 |
[3] | 2020 | GRU and LSTM Hybrid Model | Historical Price | RMSE: 1-day: LTC = 2.2986, XMR = 3.2715, 3-days: LTC = 2.0327, XMR = 5.5005, 7 days: LTC = 4.5521, XMR = 20.2437 |
[4] | 2021 | GRU and LSTM Hybrid Model | Historical Price, Inter-dependency of the parent coin | MSE: 1-day: LTC = 0.0203, Zcash = 0.0046, 3-days: LTC = 0.0266, Zcash = 0.0048, 7 days: LTC = 0.2337, Zcash = 0.0052 |
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John, D.L.; Binnewies, S.; Stantic, B. Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Algorithms: A Survey and Future Directions. Forecasting 2024, 6, 637-671. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030034
John DL, Binnewies S, Stantic B. Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Algorithms: A Survey and Future Directions. Forecasting. 2024; 6(3):637-671. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030034
Chicago/Turabian StyleJohn, David L., Sebastian Binnewies, and Bela Stantic. 2024. "Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Algorithms: A Survey and Future Directions" Forecasting 6, no. 3: 637-671. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030034
APA StyleJohn, D. L., Binnewies, S., & Stantic, B. (2024). Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Algorithms: A Survey and Future Directions. Forecasting, 6(3), 637-671. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030034