Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies
AbstractThe ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has been a serious public health emergency since 2015. Since Zika is a vector-borne disease, the size of the vector population in the affected area plays a key role in controlling the scale of the outbreak. The primary vectors for Zika, the Aedes Agypti and Aedes Albopictus species of mosquitoes, are highly sensitive to climatic conditions for survival and reproduction. Additionally, increased international travel over the years has caused the disease outbreak to turn into a pandemic affecting five continents. The mosquito population and the human travel patterns are the two main driving forces affecting the persistence and resurgence of Zika and other vector-borne diseases. This paper presents an enhanced dynamic model that simulates the 2013–2014 French Polynesia Zika outbreak incorporating the temperature dependent mosquito ecology and the local transit network (flights and ferries). The study highlights the importance of human travel patterns and mosquito population dynamics in a disease outbreak. The results predict that more than 85% of the population was infected by the end of the outbreak and it lasted for more than five months across the islands. The basic reproduction number (
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Gwalani, H.; Hawamdeh, F.; Mikler, A.R.; Xiong, K. Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies. Appl. Syst. Innov. 2018, 1, 31.
Gwalani H, Hawamdeh F, Mikler AR, Xiong K. Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies. Applied System Innovation. 2018; 1(3):31.Chicago/Turabian Style
Gwalani, Harsha; Hawamdeh, Faris; Mikler, Armin R.; Xiong, Katherine. 2018. "Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies." Appl. Syst. Innov. 1, no. 3: 31.
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