Decoding the Paradoxical Drivers of Renewable Energy Transition in Arab Countries ^†

This paper examines the gap between early planning and current achievements in renewable energy development across Arab countries, while investigating correlations with five key determinants: natural conditions, financial capacity, energy consumption markets, trade patterns, and political stability. Through integrated analysis, we reveal counterintuitive findings with significant policy implications: (1) Natural resource advantages show diminishing returns beyond threshold levels, suggesting that over-reliance on resource endowment may hinder strategic investments. (2) The “funding paradox” demonstrates that hydrocarbon-rich nations exhibit slower renewable adoption despite financial capacity, highlighting institutional path dependencies. (3) Energy market liberalization emerges as the most consistent positive driver. Our results contribute to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) by identifying policy leverage points for energy transitions in resource-dependent economies, and to SDG 13 (Climate Action) through the revealed potential for carbon lock-in mitigation. The developed multi-factor interaction model provides a diagnostic framework for policymakers to (a) rebalance natural resource utilization strategies, (b) design fiscal mechanisms that overcome hydrocarbon inertia, and (c) accelerate market reforms that stimulate renewable investments. These findings carry particular relevance for Middle Eastern nations navigating the dual challenges of economic diversification and climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.