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Article

Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia

1
Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
2
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Luisenstraße 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
3
Industrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH (IABG mbH), Einsteinstr. 20, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
4
Municipality of Monastir, Municipalité de Monastir, Avenue Habib Bourguiba, 5019 Monastir, Tunisia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Urban Sci. 2020, 4(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4010010
Received: 2 December 2019 / Revised: 19 February 2020 / Accepted: 24 February 2020 / Published: 27 February 2020
Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127–149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city. View Full-Text
Keywords: participatory modeling; future urban expansion; SLEUTH; Business as Usual prediction; alternative scenarios participatory modeling; future urban expansion; SLEUTH; Business as Usual prediction; alternative scenarios
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MDPI and ACS Style

Harb, M.; Garschagen, M.; Cotti, D.; Krätzschmar, E.; Baccouche, H.; Ben Khaled, K.; Bellert, F.; Chebil, B.; Ben Fredj, A.; Ayed, S.; Shekhar, H.; Hagenlocher, M. Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia. Urban Sci. 2020, 4, 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4010010

AMA Style

Harb M, Garschagen M, Cotti D, Krätzschmar E, Baccouche H, Ben Khaled K, Bellert F, Chebil B, Ben Fredj A, Ayed S, Shekhar H, Hagenlocher M. Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia. Urban Science. 2020; 4(1):10. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4010010

Chicago/Turabian Style

Harb, Mostapha; Garschagen, Matthias; Cotti, Davide; Krätzschmar, Elke; Baccouche, Hayet; Ben Khaled, Karem; Bellert, Felicitas; Chebil, Bouraoui; Ben Fredj, Anis; Ayed, Sonia; Shekhar, Himanshu; Hagenlocher, Michael. 2020. "Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia" Urban Sci. 4, no. 1: 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4010010

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