Assessment of Environmental Risks during the Implementation of Infrastructure Projects in the Arctic Region

Abstract

The Arctic Zone of Russia (AZR), due to its significant potential, for the implementation of which infrastructure projects and strategic plans are envisaged, is of great importance for the country. Particular attention is paid to the transport and related infrastructure development. The implementation of such projects requires the creation and implementation of modern integrated solutions based on new technical and technological solutions. The development of new territories is accompanied by problems such as urbanization and the disruption of ecosystems, which will have a particularly negative impact on the Arctic zone. The situation is complicated by the fact that the work must be carried out in difficult conditions, which are associated with a large number of risks, including environmental ones. Currently, many types of businesses are characterized by a transition to the implementation of the concepts of green and blue economy, as well as ESG principles when building strategic development plans that include risk reduction. Achieving this goal is possible through an environmental risk management system. To create a suchlike system, it is necessary to identify the most significant risk characteristics of each type of activity, taking into account their negative impact on the environment, after which it will be possible to plan measures to either prevent risks or minimize their consequences. Taking into account the above, we plan to develop the concept of an environmental risk management system (ERMS) as part of the region’s development strategy implementation. To reach this purpose, identifying the main groups of environmental risks depending on the danger source based on the scientific article review results, systematizing concepts aimed at improving the environmental situation under different types of anthropogenic impacts on the environment, developing an algorithm for implementing an environmental risk management system depending on the risk type, and proposing a concept for building an environmental risk management system are needed. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that the main directions of negative anthropogenic impact on the environment are systematized, and possible ways to reduce environmental risks are outlined. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that when implementing such a system, it will be possible to manage not only risks of a certain category, but also monitor the situation as a whole, identifying the consequences for related areas.

1. Introduction

The Arctic Zone of Russia (AZR) is one of the key areas for the extraction of mineral resources, the development of settlements, international cooperation and the image of the country. Russia has the largest Arctic sector among the states with access to the Arctic Ocean; as a result, Russia’s role in developing the Arctic development strategy is the main one. The Northern Sea Route, passing through the territorial waters of Russia, is the main transport link in the Arctic region and should operate smoothly and year-round. With the structural complexities and features of the AZR, significant modernization and renewal of the port infrastructure are necessary, as well as ensuring its safe and sustainable operation, since a significant part of the cargo flow is carried out through multimodal transportation. For these purposes, intelligent technologies should be used, and environmental risk management systems (ERMSs) have been developed. The change in the production paradigm through the enhanced integration of cyber–physical systems into factory processes is changing the economic structure of Russian regions. This requires a change in the technological structure and the use of boundary computing and data mining. The development of digital technologies and modernization of the Russian Arctic will accelerate the region’s development.

However, the intensive development of the Arctic creates environmental risks. The most important tasks of ensuring the AZR’s development in environmental safety are identifying and monitoring the main ecosystem’s pollution sources, and the development of management systems in infrastructure projects and environmental safety in AZR. At this time, Russia accumulates and annually updates extensive databases and knowledge about the environmental risk sources, which will become the basis for making rational environmental decisions. When developing environmental risk management systems, it should be borne in mind that strategic decisions should be based on ESG principles, as well as paradigms such as the “green economy” and “blue economy” (proposed in 2009 to the Club of Rome by Günter Pauli, and subsequently used in scientific research). As stated in the UN General Assembly resolution, all aspects of the blue economy are defined on the basis of natural blue capital. This is also in line with sustainable development goals. One of the main and important principles is “Conservation and rational use of oceans, seas and marine resources in the interests of sustainable development,” which involves solving the problems of the World Ocean, and defines modern specific aspects of the “blue economy” concept.

The “blue economy” basis in AZR should be in compliance with ESG principles in the development of marine technologies. These principles are marine food systems, including in fisheries, and aquaculture; marine bio-technology and bio-products; processing of materials with marine biological agents; and maritime transportation along the Northern Sea Route, increasing the sustainability of shipping through the usage of unique atomic Russian icebreakers. Within the framework of the “blue economy” concept, a detailed study and accumulation of information about the state of marine data are required for any economic development of water areas. Based on the development of the “blue economy” concept in Russia, there is a plan, by 2025, to prevent and significantly reduce any pollution of the marine environment, taking into account waste from land, including marine debris. At the same time, by 2030, Russia needs to increase the economic benefits obtained from the environmentally sound use of marine resources, including through the environmentally sound organization of fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. To solve the problems of the sustainable development of the AZR, an ERMS is needed, which will make it possible to most effectively organize the implementation of infrastructure projects and regional development strategies.

To ensure that management decisions on the implementation of such projects are objective and effective, they must be information-based, i.e., based on the analysis of accurate, sufficient, relevant, consistent and interrelated data, timely presented to decision makers when assessing risk. In this case, both historical and current data can be used as source data, stored, as a rule, in heterogeneous information resources that have different information models and use different data presentation formats. Fundamental to management at all levels is risk management, which must be continuous, structured, comprehensive and integrated into key business processes to achieve maximum efficiency.

To meet these requirements, risk management must be based on the use of modern information and digital technologies to ensure transparency, objectivity and prompt decision-making when assessing risk. To ensure environmental safety, heterogeneous and operational data processed in the ERMS are required. Initial information for these purposes can be obtained both from open sources and from internal information systems and databases of organizations, as well as external information resources, including commercial systems of partners and government information systems. It should be borne in mind that the development of environmental risk management systems based on the use of artificial intelligence methods and big data processing technologies will inevitably lead to fundamentally new ways of obtaining primary information.

Taking into account the above, the objective of the article is to develop the concept of ERMSs in the implementation of infrastructure and strategic projects for the development of the AZR. This goal determined the article structure. The article is organized as follows: the second section presents the results of source analysis that are most relevant in terms of classification of environmental risks and possible ways to prevent them. The third section formulates the goals and objectives of the study and describes the information base. The fourth section presents the developed ERMS model, provides the stages of the environmental risk management algorithm and provides a conceptual model of the DSS, the intellectual core of which includes the ERMS for the development of Arctic territories. In conclusion, the results of the study are described and prospects for its progress are outlined.

2. Background: Research Areas into the Risks of AZR Development

This section lists the main directions of the development of the AZR.

2.1. Types of Anthropogenic Impacts and Their Impact on the Environment

Considering the problems that are created during the implementation of infrastructure projects and the evolution of new territories, we can identify those activity types that have a greater negative impact on the environment state. First of all, this is industry. Thus, the AZR is important from the point of view of strategic economic development. However, we must keep in mind the negative consequences of the industrialization of the AZR. Industrial growth is associated with other anthropogenic risks, such as the development of transport routes, urbanization of territories, and the generation of waste and disruption of the usual way of life of the indigenous population. These areas have been highlighted in various scientific studies. This chapter is devoted to the analysis of such articles.

2.1.1. Environmental Factors Associated with Industrial Development

The authors [1] consider the problem of Arctic sustainable development through the prism of the externality theory, raising current issues from the standpoint of scientific and technological progress and the sustainable development concept. The originality of the research results lies in determining the trends and course of development of the Arctic through the prism of managing externalities by identifying hidden patterns of Arctic territory progress from the standpoint of sustainable development. The article [2] presents an example of the sustainability of the fossil resource development in Yakutia district, one of the AZR regions. The article analyzes the contribution of the extractive industry to the economy of Yakutia district through numerical and statistical analysis of statistical data. The article shows that the extractive industry has become the driving force behind Yakutia economy growth, while the costs of its development include the costs of compensating for the negative impact of mining companies both in the natural environment and in other types of economic activities, such as livestock farming and fishing.

The article [3] discusses issues of ensuring sustainability in the Arctic using the example of choosing a route for transporting rare-earth metal from the Tomtor deposit in Yakutia, taking into account social, economic and environmental factors. According to the authors [4], enterprises that heavily pollute the environment need to reduce funding and excessive investments. The government can develop strong environmental regulations or provide subsidies to enterprises for the implementation of environmental measures to force heavy polluting enterprises to innovate and modernize.

The study [5] considered the issue of finding compromises between various groups of energy lobbies through the introduction of innovative technologies for sustainable development. Considering that the AZR has a large share of hard-to-recover hydrocarbon reserves, and that flare emissions are a fairly common occurrence in Russia, this issue is extremely relevant. The development and implementation of a new form of nuclear energy infrastructure—floating nuclear power platforms (FNPPs)—is intended to generate electricity for coastal regions, especially in areas where it is difficult to build stationary power plants. However, FNPPs may pose potential risks to the marine environment. The purpose of the study [6] is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the relevant legal instruments for regulating FNPPs from the point of view of environmental risks.

Although crushing rocks in open pits is often economical, this method can lead to environmental problems in surrounding regions. Minimizing the flyrock hazard, as recommended by the authors [7], can ensure environmental sustainability during blasting operations. To predict such situations, the study proposes several new hybrid models. Industrial disasters cause great damage to the environment, can cause serious public health problems, and lead to large casualties. The study goal [8] was to assess the risk of industrial and environmental disasters associated with hazardous materials (hazmat) in Balikpapan. The authors found that the riskiest sectors are extractive industries.

2.1.2. Environmental Factors Associated with Agricultural and Food Development

Environmental and anthropogenic factors are global challenges that affect the lifestyle and demographic behavior of the rural population of the AZR, and threaten its social and food safety. The article [9] studies the factors that create social problems among Nord Western Siberia rural communities and cause migration outflow from these areas. The article states that sustainable development of the Siberian population can only be achieved through improved food supplies and the implementation of social infrastructure, either as “models of rural cities” or as “service centers for the nomadic and rural population”. Global sustainable development goals cannot be achieved without multi-scale identification of risks to well-being. The study [10] examines the balance between economic development and environmental transformation of Inupiat-inhabited areas of northern Alaska. This region is the homeland for these people, and the main means of subsistence for them, as before, is obtained through the development of natural farming. The authors assessed the degree of consensus in terms of key risks threatening the sustainability of these communities.

Incorporating ocean values and services into economic modeling and management is at the heart of the blue economy, and aquaculture and sustainable fisheries play an important role in this endeavor, especially for countries in the Arctic. This article [11] is a comparative study of the current status, problems and prospects of fisheries and aquaculture in Alaska and northern Norway, and explores opportunities for interactions between these regions in the development of the “blue economy” concept in terms of factors such as economic value, impact on society and environmental maintenance. The study [12] examines how coastal urban AZR communities are implementing strategic plans for sustainable development and the emerging “blue economy”. Obviously, for this, it is necessary to have special documents or separate sections of development plans. This is needed for the development of industries such as the construction and repair of ships, reducing emissions both into water and coastal air, and coastal tourism. Important areas are digitalization of the economy and control; integrated control of marine and coastal infrastructure; decarbonization of the coastal economy; and development of alternative energy sources, as well as energy in general. At the same time, areas such as resource conservation, seafood processing, marine biotechnology, aquaculture, food security, maritime communications, the creation of nature reserves and national parks, sustainable forestry, marine insurance and maritime supervision are important. The paper [13] examines whether the Arctic Council has influence on issues that benefit biodiversity. It is established that funds are provided to estimate and guide the Arctic Council’s work in the area of biodiversity to focus the Council’s efforts on changes in the direction of coordinating action and implementing recommendations. The authors believe that similar attention to other areas of activity will assist the Arctic Council in informing others about future problems.

2.1.3. Urbanization and Negative Environmental Consequences

Cities play an important role in promoting sustainable development, as they contain the majority of residents and economic activity in the AZR. The article [14] presents a practical example of municipal programs for the sustainable development (SD) of two large northern cities of Russia: Murmansk and Magadan. The article identifies ten categories of sustainable development programs based on the UN SDGs, modeled on the city of Whitehorse, Canada. Although the SD programs of these cities differ, there are striking similarities that characterize the national, regional and local models of SD policy development in the cities of the AZR. The article [15] argues that Arctic cities face challenges related to their unique geography, climate, economy and history, in addition to the common challenges found in cities around the world. ISO 37120’s [16] comprehensive set of indicators assesses the resilience of Arctic cities. The authors suggest that ISO 37120 should also include indicators that take into account the links between a city and its wider regional ecosystem, the attitudes of local indigenous people towards policies, the presence of climate-related issues such as permafrost thawing and coastal erosion, the work carried out for the inscription of these issues and an improvement in the resilience of the city as a whole.

Throughout the world, populations and the infrastructure that supports them are located in coastal areas. As sea levels rise, urban infrastructure is exposed to various risks. Wastewater systems are the most vulnerable due to their proximity to the coastline. The study [17] illustrates how scenario-based landscape design approaches can influence coastal change, with a particular focus on sustainable wastewater treatment systems. This approach will support the analysis of opportunities beyond conventional approaches to better adapt coastal infrastructure landscapes to the rise in sea level in Australia and elsewhere.

Megacities around the world face a variety of territorial, social economic and environmental problems. Sustainable adaptation in economic, social and environmental terms requires strategic planning. The study [18] analyzes the management processes of protected areas in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, where it is necessary to get rid of the strong socio-spatial segregation that happened in the twentieth century. These are peripheral areas with economically vulnerable populations as well as an increased risk of natural disasters. To solve the problem, it is necessary to look for strategies to expand green infrastructure in the cities, either to create green roofs or intensively expand green spaces in the immediate vicinity of ecologically disadvantaged areas.

The concept of “green building” refers to environmentally friendly designs that aim to minimize the impact on the natural environment through the sustainable and efficient use of resources throughout their life cycle. The study [19] is a systematic review of research related to green buildings in the Arctic. The analysis highlights the benefits and critical challenges of green buildings located in the Arctic compared to traditional buildings, especially in terms of environmental, economic and social aspects.

Road traffic in urban areas depends on many internal and external environmental factors. Forecasting the transport situation and organizing traffic also depends on the chaotic behavior of each vehicle in the stream, which is difficult to take into account. In contrast to existing solutions to problems associated with sustainable traffic management, the authors of this article [20] propose realizing management based on the patterns of change in the transport system chaos, using a systems approach and its methods. The main conclusions made by the authors are the patterns of the influence of entropy on the traffic flow kinetic energy and the risk of injury. The authors obtained the initial data for the experiment by processing video images in real time using neural network technologies. The progress of transport infrastructure is associated with risks, the main one of which is harm to the health of road users both because of road traffic accidents (RTAs) and after an accident. To reduce the number of RTAs, the main condition is the implementation of scientific research. This will offer a comprehensive mechanism for preventing accidents, and will also contribute to the analysis, assessment and management of risks to improve road safety [21]. Proper rescue route selection and priority management strategies are essential for emergency vehicles (EMVs) that save citizens’ lives. The study [22] analyzes the three main research areas on routing and priority control for EMVs: travel time prediction (EMV-TTP), routing optimization (EMV-RO) and traffic priority control (EMV-TPC).

Human activity inevitably leads to the generation of waste; so many researchers are paying increased attention to solving the problem of waste disposal. Thus, landfill fires are a source of many environmental risks. In addition, they are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to the formation of marine litter. The study [23] proposes a methodology for assessing health risks and environmental damage associated with waste incineration and disposal. Municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become a major issue in developing countries such as Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, where most of the MSW is disposed of in open landfills, severely affecting the environment. The study [24] examined a comprehensive method for assessing the characteristics of MSW and its management strategies from a global and Bangladeshi perspective. Utilization of landfill gas (LFG), waste processing and pyrolysis for energy production, synthesis gas production, and metal recovery are possible future directions for MSW management. The study [25] developed a new integrated model to improve the MSW management system by taking into account facility location, shift schedules, and vehicle routing decisions. The main goal of this study was to integrate the three bases of sustainable development—economic efficiency, environmental pollution and social impact, including community satisfaction—into a single comprehensive framework. Future research could improve the model’s realism by incorporating uncertainties using different approaches such as fuzzy logic, two-stage stochastic programming, or distribution-robust optimization.

2.1.4. Negative Environmental Consequences of the Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Development

International transport corridors [26] play an important role in organizing logistics and cargo transportation, especially maritime transport and, accordingly, port infrastructure, which must meet the requirements of environmentalists, especially in light of the concept of the “blue economy”. The study [27] carefully examines the inclusion of the Northern Sea Route in the logistics of the port of Shanghai. Given factors such as adverse climatic conditions, infrastructure development and compliance with security measures, China’s port and logistics sector must adapt to changing global trade realities.

The study [28] examines the problems of negative impact on seaports. A conceptual model has been developed to manage environmental risks. The features of the functioning of ports and port infrastructure in Arctic conditions have been analyzed. The article [29] is devoted to the development of Arctic seaports from both legal and economic points of view, in countries such as Russia, Iceland and Norway. The emphasis is on “green technologies” in the management of Arctic seaports (through the use of autonomous and electric vessels, as well as the use of nuclear energy and liquefied natural gas), as well as on the modernization of container ships to increase cargo capacity, which will subsequently be serviced by container ports. Methods for intellectualizing processes are considered: digitalization of port infrastructure, including the sustainability of transportation (online platforms, conference calls (video and audio), information exchange and remote data monitoring to ensure the quality of supply chains.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the most important maritime logistics project. At the same time, the future operation of the NSR should be based on ESG principles aimed at minimizing environmental damage and rational use of labor resources [30]. These measures include (a) the development of a GIS system for monitoring the environmental state in the NSR area, and in the future, the transfer of all ships to use gas engine fuel; (b) development of a unified information system for managing northern delivery, ensuring optimization of cargo flows; (c) creation at the federal level of a system for forecasting and monitoring cargo transportation along the NSR, while simultaneously increasing the responsibility of companies with mining licenses for the timely implementation of investment projects.

Against the backdrop of the green economy, the paper [31] takes the retailer-dominated two-way monopoly green supply chain as its research object and examines the coordination of joint green investment contracts. The paper includes a green supply chain involving a risk-averse manufacturer and a risk-neutral retailer, and examines optimal green decision-making and green supply chain coordination with a risk-averse manufacturer. With growing concerns over environmental issues due to waste accumulation and the scarcity of raw materials, the role of reverse logistics is increasing. Due to rising return costs, manufacturers are increasingly outsourcing operations of reverse logistics to organizations that specialize in providing logistics services. In this case, an important aspect is to take into account the risk of failures caused by natural or various factors. The article [32] studies the design of third-party reverse logistics networks in risky situations.

Because the characteristics of the Tripolar Region (TPR) and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) region are greatly affected by climate change, the sustainable development path of the TPR is different from that of other regions [33]. To achieve the SDGs, both common and different ways of peaceful use of TPR can be used. Because the TPR’s climate is sensitive and the risk of resource exploitation is high, it is necessary to use international cooperation mechanisms to enhance the sustainability of the TPR. At the same time, sustainable development should be determined by the TTP environmental protection system, in which environmental protection should be the basis, and resource development should be an addition.

An interdisciplinary study [34] focused on the quadruple bottom line of the environment, economy, society and Indigenous cultures of Arctic transportation routes. According to the authors, this approach allows for the development of a more holistic and realistic strategy for the sustainable development of the Arctic region in relation to regional economics, rural logistics, supply chain efficiency and social licensing.

China, as a circum-Arctic and shipping power state, has shown great interest in developing polar routes from East Asia to Europe amid declining sea ice in the Arctic. The vulnerability of ecosystems and the difficult accessibility of the Arctic dictate the need to increase the sustainability of Arctic shipping. The study [35] used content analysis to examine China’s prospects for sustainable shipping in the Arctic. The results show that China supports scientific expeditions and research in the development of Arctic sea routes, and encourages shipping enterprises to conduct commercial and scheduled voyages to the Arctic, actively participating in the management of Arctic shipping. China intends to find a good balance between environmental protection and shipping development.

2.2. Sociocultural Factors and Their Impact on the Environment

The work [36] is aimed at justifying the need to support planning and decision-making processes in the management of complex socio-ecological systems that require innovative and efficient processes. Therefore, the key aspect is to build structures within and between research institutions and practices, as well as links to the surrounding governance system.

The article [37] discusses the method of social investment of Arctic subsoil users. According to the article authors, for sustainable Arctic development, it is necessary not to compensate for the negative consequences of its industrial development, as is practiced in many countries, but to make social investments in its progress. The authors test the proposed approach using the example of the indigenous population of the Arctic Taimyr, which was implemented to coordinate relations between business (Norilsk Nickel) and the indigenous people of the Taimyr Dolgano-Nenets municipal district of the Krasnoyarsk Territory to ensure the territory’s sustainable development, preserve traditional land use and environmental control, and preserve local traditions and culture.

Research findings can be used to understand sustainable development in the Canadian Arctic while taking into account local knowledge and needs. The purpose of this study [38] is to examine existing documents and strategies related to research activities in Canada’s northern regions to identify common goals and priorities among northern organizations.

Cross-border cooperation stimulates sustainable regional progress, creates preconditions for perspective projects and is focused on the development of transborder economic relations. Universities and science institutes take heading positions in the evolution of advanced ecosystems and the use of complicated technologies, training highly qualified labor to AZR. The article [39] examines international project activities as one of the most effective tools for facilitating the development of these issues. The Arctic directly influences the local territories’ evolution, stimulates economic growth and creates new models of collaboration.

There is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research towards the sustainable development of the AZR and the Far East, especially with the acceleration of global environmental changes and the shifting economic priorities of many countries, as well as globalization. The article [40] proposes a conceptual model of the relationship between sustainability and the unique characteristics of sparsely populated regions of the Arctic and Far East. The study identifies indicators that will take into account the state of the environment, economy and social needs in the interests of balanced regional development from areas with small populations.

The Arctic has great potential. However, economic, environmental, climatic, social, cultural, professional, educational and institutional changes require new views on sustainable education and development. When developing the Arctic region, it is important to understand the characteristics of these territories—their capabilities and vulnerabilities. The authors [41] have created a model of Arctic sustainable education, which is based on a new way of life. Its main characteristics are a humanistic and responsible attitude towards the environment. School education should provide citizens with the basic knowledge needed to make informed decisions about improving environmental sustainability [42] (argument that unifies the One Health approach). The results show that although most groups adequately assess the ecology of the city, most solutions only mitigate, and do not prevent situations, and therefore do not meet anthropocentric interests. Additionally, students only record environmental or economic impacts.

2.3. Complex Methods

The mining industry is at the heart of the socio-economic development strategy of the AZR. The specific conditions of the Arctic determine specific requirements for human and natural capital. The implementation of the principles of the concept of sustainable development is the most important. The purpose of the study [43] is to substantiate measures to improve the sustainability of the development of the mining regions of the Arctic, which is of strategic importance for the Russian Federation. According to the authors, increasing local budget revenues at the expense of the federal budget will give Arctic regions greater opportunities to solve demographic problems.

The article [44] discusses the sustainable development issues of indigenous Arctic people based on the optimization of mining companies’ projects. The authors believe that there are various rational technologies for extracting raw materials. Additionally, finding the optimal option will allow for finding a compromise solution for the interested parties. This study proposes criteria and a plan of action for selecting alternative options for the implementation of mining projects.

Melting permafrost poses risks to the environment, economy and culture of Arctic coastal communities. Identifying these risks, considering the social context and engaging relevant stakeholders are critical to risk management and future resilience, yet the dual of risk dimensions and risk perception are often neglected in risk concepts. The article [45] presents a risk framework for Arctic coastal communities. The conceptual framework motivates participatory risk management with local communities in identifying risks from thawing permafrost and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Monitoring the dynamics and sustainability of social-ecological systems is of large importance for the rapidly changing Arctic. The purpose of the essay [46] is to talk and present principles for developing a suitable monitoring system for the sustainability of the Arctic, based on the convergence of two directions: the sustainability paradigm with the principles of sustainable development. Particular attention is paid to approaches developing sustainability indicators to monitor trends in Arctic socio-ecological systems. In addition, the Arctic, where rapid climate change and major socio-economic transformations pose challenges for sustainable development, can provide a good testing ground for the development and implementation of sustainability monitoring, which can subsequently be transferred to other regions of the world.

One way to implement sustainable development is through the development and use of artificial intelligence tools. However, there are few practical examples of successful solutions to environmental, social and governance problems using artificial intelligence. The overview [47] includes an examination of typical business and manufacturing environmental issues and lists the challenges that intelligent algorithms can create (for example, creating fake news and increased electricity consumption).

3. Materials and Methods

In accordance with the article goal, it is necessary to determine what environmental risks exist, what concepts have been developed to prevent them, as well as reduce the severity of the consequences in the event that it is impossible to prevent a risk situation. In addition, it is necessary to identify and classify risk factors in order to develop responses to reduce them. In order to select an adequate method for identifying, accounting, analyzing and responding to risk situations, it is necessary to study existing risk management systems, as well as methods for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of environmental risks. This section will be devoted to addressing these issues. The formulation of the DSS concept and the environmental risk management system, which is part of the DSS intellectual core, as well as the algorithm for its implementation, will be given in Section 4.

3.1. Environmental Risks and Concepts to Help Reduce Them

The Arctic region is an important object for research in the field of environmental sustainability. The implementation of large projects brings economic benefits [46] on the one hand, but on the other hand, it is associated with risks. This can lead to serious environmental consequences and man-made disasters. We chose the Arctic region as a study because warming opens up new opportunities for its development, and this is all associated with risks.

Effective risk management in complex systems requires a comprehensive approach that takes into account many factors and their interactions. It is important to know what actions should be taken in various situations in order not only to minimize risks, but also to create favorable conditions for both humans and the ecosystem. The more complex the system that we are analyzing, the greater the number of risks that can arise in it, and a risk situation can be caused either by the action of various factors sequentially, or by their combination or simultaneous impact. Therefore, the development of strategic and complex infrastructure projects should be guided by concepts aimed at reducing environmental risks, such as the green economy, blue economy and ESG principles. Only by using an integrated approach can the sustainability of both the economy as a whole and individual industries and areas of development be achieved (Figure 1).

The sustainability of large strategic projects in the mining industry, industrial production and urbanization of territories requires an approach to risk management. Scientific research in the Arctic region must take into account the specifics of the cold climate and the scale of the territory. Management activities are always associated with risks. The anthropogenic factor plays a key role in the process of making management decisions. Risks arising in management activities may concern various aspects of security, be it physical, economic, informational or environmental. Based on the value of the risk level, decisions are made that apply strategies to ensure the required safety levels.

To effectively manage risks, it is important not only to identify them but also to analyze them to understand the likely consequences and the extent of their impact on the system. In complex systems, risks can manifest themselves through chains of events or a combination of factors. These relationships can amplify or, conversely, mitigate the consequences of potential risks.

The risk management system, which has its own characteristics in relation to each area of activity, assesses the level of risk and develops solutions to reduce it. This system should specify the most probable risks, as well as risks that may have the most significant and critical consequences. For these tasks, scientifically based classifiers are needed that systematize risks, as well as highlight specific areas for minimizing them and reducing the severity of consequences. This is due, first of all, to the diversity of both types of risks and their causes and manifestations. For example, the development of infrastructure and logistics processes is inevitably associated with different types of risks, such as technical, environmental, social and economic risks, which arise due to errors in planning, as well as in the implementation of the development strategy. Particular attention should be paid to the problem of an imperfect infrastructure, since in this case there is a high risk of developing man-made disasters.

Environmental risk is influenced by many factors that can be classified according to the nature of the impacts (see Figure 2).

The variety of types and factors of environmental risk emphasize the complexity and versatility of the problem, requiring a comprehensive and integrated approach to risk assessment and management.

3.2. Risk Management Systems

The risk management cycle contains several stages, and the concept of “cycle” means that a risk management system must be created based on the principle of “feedback”, that is, the ability to adjust processes depending on the result obtained (Figure 3).

At the identification stage, risks inherent in different activity areas should be identified, as well as the reasons for their occurrence and solutions. Only when all risks have been identified can they begin to be assessed. At the same time, quantitative methods [48,49,50] are used to assess risk, such as statistical analysis of data on the frequency and consequences of past environmental events, as well as mathematical and computer modeling to predict environmental risks. These methods allow us to assess the likelihood of certain environmental risks and the potential level of their impact, as well as analyze various scenarios and predict possible changes in ecosystems.

If risks cannot be quantified, then qualitative methods [51,52,53,54] such as expert assessments and scenario analysis are used, which are based on expert opinions and include an analysis of potential environmental hazards and their impact based on professional judgment and experience. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders, including the public, academia and industry, is generally envisaged to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the various aspects of environmental risks. Various risk assessment and management methods can be used for qualitative and quantitative analysis. For this purpose, in our opinion, methods of intelligent analysis and modeling are suitable, since a “what-if” scenario can be worked out on a model without causing damage to the environment or disrupting the operation of a real system.

Due to the fact that there are a variety of both qualitative and quantitative methods, and combinations of them are often used [55,56,57,58], in some cases, it is necessary to resort to preliminary analysis in order to select the most appropriate method depending on the risk situation type, the information quality for analysis and other factors. An approximate classification of methods for analyzing and assessing environmental risks is shown in Figure 4. Using qualitative methods, both descriptive and cause-and-effect conclusions can be drawn. In essence, qualitative methods differ from quantitative approaches such as probability and statistics because qualitative studies explain the results of specific cases, while quantitative studies estimate the average effect of independent variables in a large sample.

When quantitative data are difficult or expensive to obtain, qualitative analysis is usually used. In addition, if rapid risk assessment is needed or if risks cannot be quantified, qualitative risk analysis can be used as a stand-alone approach or to complement quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis has a number of advantages:

• It allows for potential risks to be identified at an early stage, before they have a significant impact on the environment.
• It allows you to use the experience and knowledge of experts to identify and assess risks.
• It ensures better risk communication among various stakeholders, improving collaboration and speeding up decision making.
• It allows you to prioritize risks based on their significance, building a clear hierarchy of risk management activities.
• The approach is simple, requiring a minimum of data and resources for implementation.

To quantify risks, there are models and methods based on statistical data (see Figure 4).

Regardless of which models are used to calculate the level of risk, the quality of the initial information is important, so one of the stages in the risk management cycle is environmental monitoring [59]. Monitoring data serves to control key indicators of the current state of the environment, and the sample as a whole can serve to identify negative trends and forecast deviations in indicators of the zone of critical values.

To be able to monitor, manage and minimize risks, it is necessary to develop a strategy for managing risks and minimizing consequences if the risk cannot be prevented. An environmental risk management strategy includes technical measures, policies and procedures aimed at reducing the likelihood of risks occurring and minimizing their potential impact, which requires an integrated approach that includes regulation, technological innovation and increasing public environmental awareness.

When developing key performance indicators for the implementation of strategic projects, it is necessary to take into account the following aspects of each stage: resources, threats and vulnerabilities. At the same time, for each stage, a risk management map must be drawn up, which provides measures aimed at reducing the likelihood of risk situations occurring or mitigating the consequences (if it is impossible to prevent the risk). Environmental risk assessments typically focus on one of two areas: human health and ecosystem conditions [60,61,62,63,64].

Environmental hazards are the potential for adverse effects on humans or ecosystems. These hazards can be caused by a variety of stressors that affect natural resources, ecosystems, or directly affect human health. A stressor can be any physical, chemical or biological entity. Stressors can adversely affect plant and animal species, leading to decreased biodiversity and the disruption of ecosystem processes. One of the challenging aspects of environmental risk assessments is considering the combined effects of multiple stressors. For example, oil spills can involve interactions between different chemicals, increasing their harmful effects. Additional types of stressors include harmful microbial pathogens or unfavorable conditions such as oxygen deficiency (anoxia) in surface waters. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) evaluates risk behaviors to determine the types and severity of threats to the health of various populations and environmental features, such as vegetation, avifauna, other wildlife, aquatic plants and living things.

In this section, we described the basic provisions necessary to build an environmental risk assessment system. The methodology and algorithm for its implementation will be given in the next section.

4. Results and Discussions

As already indicated, we chose the AZR to analyze and build a system for managing environmental risks, since the region is distinguished by the diversity of both the state of ecosystems and development prospects [65,66,67,68,69], and therefore is significantly exposed to environmental risks, including anthropogenic ones. The first section of this chapter will analyze industrial potential and upcoming infrastructure projects, then we will look at the state of transport infrastructure and transport corridors, which are integral factors in the region’s development and implementation of strategies. Then, the concept of an environmental risk management system, including the methodology and implementation algorithm, will be reviewed.

4.1. Industrial Potential of the AZR, Infrastructure Projects

When developing strategies for the AZR evolution, it is necessary to take into account the principles of ESG, which help to implement an integrated approach that takes into account all aspects of the infrastructure projects’ realization. Maintaining environmental balance is a very important aspect, which ultimately determines both the social context of the regional AZR development and the implementation quality of the production and economic complex [70]. The AZR population’s quality of life, in turn, depends on the environment state, comfortable living conditions and activities in difficult natural and climatic conditions [71], and on state programs for the AZR territories’ development [72].

To deliver materials and goods, it is necessary, first of all, to create a transport and industrial framework to ensure the possibility of creating logistic flows. The main goals are to unite raw materials and industrial centers, as well as transport infrastructure and NSR facilities, into a single network in order to provide logistics between the centers of the mining and processing industries and consumers. The state program for the development of the AZR provides a comprehensive development path [73,74] through the creation of “Support zones”. In order to reduce all types of costs, including the implementation of environmental measures, as well as intensify the work of shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises for the development of seaports in the NSR and the transport framework as a whole, a project-based approach to territorial development is used; here, control over the entire project as a whole is carried out.

Support zones (SZs) can be clustered according to the development of the transport framework: the developing cluster includes Arkhangelsk, Kola and Karelian; the emerging cluster includes Yamalo-Nenets and North Yakut; the cluster being designed includes Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Vorkuta; and a cluster that requires reconstruction and modernization of transport routes includes Taimyr–Turukhansky and Chukotka [75].

The transport framework development correlates with the development of industry, the corresponding region and its economy as a whole. The most industrially developed is the Kola Arctic zone, the Murmansk region [76,77], the economy basis of which is the mining complex. The Kola zone is rich in mineral resources. The infrastructure of mining and metallurgical enterprises is developed in the Murmansk region [78,79]. The Murmansk region produces apatite and high-quality iron ore concentrate (with an iron content of more than 68%), as well as baddeleyite concentrate (the only enterprise in the world). The Apatit Mining and Processing Plant has been extracting mineral fertilizers from phosphorus-rich apatite for more than 90 years. The Oleniy Ruchey Mining and Processing Plant receives concentrate from ore, which is mined by both open and closed methods. The production volume of apatite concentrate reaches 2 million tons per year and fully meets the needs of Russian enterprises.

The fishing industry is one of the traditional industries of the Murmansk region [80]. Up to 15% of all fish in Russia is caught here, which is immediately sent to fish processing companies. The Murmansk sea fishing port is located in Murmansk.

The consequence of the peculiarities of industrial development of the Murmansk region is the formation of single-industry towns [81], as well as the rapid development of the construction industry [82]. In order to provide the industry with high-quality materials, taking into account the need to solve environmental problems and resource conservation, new waste processing technologies are being introduced [83].

The key industries contributing to the development of the Arkhangelsk economy include shipbuilding, mechanical engineering, logistics, tourism, and the forestry industry. The construction of a new terminal and a deep-water seaport area is planned in Arkhangelsk. According to the project, two terminals will be built for mineral fertilizers, liquid cargoes of oil and gas condensate. In addition, the building of four terminals with a total capacity of up to 38 million tons is planned, which are declared as universal.

The Yamalo-Nenets zone is being created on the basis of the oil and gas chemical cluster, which accounts for a fifth of the world’s gas production.

The formation of the Taimyr–Turukhansk SZ is expected on the territory of the Taimyr and Turukhansky districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Norilsk. In the development support zone, Norilsk Nickel is responsible for the production of more than 90% of nickel, over 40% of copper and almost 100% of platinum group metals. In addition, the development of coal deposits is planned, which are planned to be exported to Western Europe and the Asia–Pacific region. This requires the construction of a coal terminal, which is planned to be built in the port of Dikson.

In March 2023, the Naryan-Mar-Usinsk road was opened in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which served to form a unified transport system for the country. Among the long-term projects is the creation of a gas chemical complex here.

The Vorkuta zone (Komi) includes a municipal entity—the urban district “Vorkuta”. Activities in this SZ are expected to increase coal production to 21.4 million tons per year.

4.2. Transport Corridors, Development Potential

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is important because it is essentially the only international transport corridor between the Far Eastern, Central and Northwestern regions, and is also the shortest way between Europe and Asia. They provide most of the transportation services to the Baltic ports, especially to St. Petersburg, while it is important to guarantee the continuous cargo flow in both directions [84].

The NSR development strategy until 2035 includes more than 150 measures to ensure the sustainability and security of AZR. Initiatives are planned that will increase investor interest in the region, such as a project to liquefy natural gas (Arctic LNG-2) and produce gas condensate (Utrenney). An oil-loading terminal is being built in Sever Bay to transport oil products from the Vostok field along the Northern Sea Route. A coal terminal on the Yenisei is under construction. It is planned to increase the sustainability of the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk seaports.

The largest seaport is located in Murmansk. It does not freeze, has sufficient depth for shipping and has free access to the open ocean, while the port is medium-loaded in terms of shipping and is the most important ITC “North-South” and “East-West”. Regarding vessels with a deadweight of more than 300 thousand tons, a draft of up to 15.5 m and a length of more than 265 m can move along the NSR all year round. The infrastructure of the Murmansk port includes a fishing port with an oil depot, repair shops and more than 50 berths, a commercial port and a passenger terminal [85].

There will be five projects in this region with investment in the creation of a single transport and logistics complex of the NSR. These are the Tuloma and Udarnik terminals, a container cargo terminal, the Lavna coal terminal, a general cargo handling complex, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) handling terminal. The construction of a container terminal in the Murmansk region is part of the tasks of the logistics operator Rosatom and the implementation of the Northern Sea Transit Corridor (NSTC) project.

The Lavna coal handling complex on the western shore of the Kola Bay is designed for 18 million tons per year and will operate without icebreakers, since it does not freeze. The Ura Bay near Murmansk with a capacity of 41.4 million tons has been chosen as the location for the marine handling complex for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

To connect the AZR with other regions of Russia and the countries of the Asia–Pacific region, the North–South ITC project is being implemented; this is a multimodal route from St. Petersburg to the port of Mumbai (India) with a length of more than seven thousand kilometers, which should compete with the trans-shipment of goods through the Suez Canal [86]. The project provides for three branches of this route. The first branch along the western coast of the Caspian Sea through Dagestan, Azerbaijan and Iran and the third branch along the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea from Russia through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Iran offer both road and rail transportation. The second, water, provides communication between the ports of all states of the Caspian Sea basin. The formation of land multimodal transport corridors implies the replacement of sea routes with rail routes, which is a more environmentally friendly option in terms of carbon dioxide emissions.

The key commodity groups suitable for container transportation are food products (21.2%), metals (16.6%), wood and paper (9.5%), machinery and equipment (8.3%), and mineral fertilizers (4.9%). According to the authors of the EDB analytical report “International North–South Transport Corridor: Creation of a Eurasian Transport Structure”, the potential transportation volume of goods unsuitable for containerization by 2030 will be from 8.7 to 12.8 million tons, mainly due to grain transportation.

The number of countries participating in the agreement on the development of transportation along the North–South International Transport Corridor may include some countries of the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean and East Africa, as well as Turkmenistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Uzbekistan in Central Asia, China (in terms of developing trade with Iran), and some countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

The AZR is a region with significant potential that can provide cargo turnover both along the NSR and along the North–South ITC. To implement such plans, it is necessary to improve the port infrastructure and develop industry, taking into account environmental risks.

4.3. Building an Environmental Risk Management System

As can be seen from the above review, the AZR industry is developing rapidly. Production risks are predominant in this region (Figure 5). However, we should not forget that regional development is accompanied by population growth. This applies to both cities and workers’ rotational camps. Each type of settlement has its own specifics which affect environmental risks [87,88], but what remains common is that the mobility of the population is ensured by the motor transport complex, the emissions of which pollute the air [89,90,91]. In addition, the question of disposal of household and solid municipal waste inevitably arises. This issue must be resolved in such a way as not to disturb the fragile natural balance of the AZR. It should also be taken into account that the agro-industrial complex, although it has its own specifics, is developing, providing the residents of the AZR with food; therefore, a negative impact on the environment also exists.

To effectively solve problems in the field of environmental protection, it is necessary to create risk management systems within which the risk management cycle is implemented (Figure 3).

For the effective operation of such a system, the best solution is to create an intelligent management tool in which, for each type of impact, its own set of measures will be developed either to avoid risk situations (minimizing the likelihood of occurrence) or to reduce the severity of their consequences (by avoiding risk fails). When developing a risk management system, you can use methods of intellectual analysis and ontological engineering.

In this case, a risk management cycle is implemented, the stages of which are described above and shown in Figure 3. The steps of the management algorithm are as follows:

• At the first step, risks are identified. Each activity type is accompanied by the emergence of its own environmental risks; then, for rapid identification, classifiers and risk registers are created [92,93,94], which must be stored in the appropriate database. Thus, risks are identified in accordance with the subject of activity (Figure 6 (1)—subject area). The corresponding risk registers are developed for various areas of activity and serve as a guide for their most complete accounting.
• At the second step, it is necessary to select the assessment method that will allow for the most adequate assessment of each of the risks. In this case, the choice of method is carried out in two stages. First, it is necessary to analyze whether it is possible to obtain the information necessary for a quantitative assessment. If this is possible, then the most adequate method for assessing a specific risk is selected (block 2, Figure 6). Otherwise, a qualitative method is used, using the most acceptable option for a given type of risk. Information on the compliance of the risk assessment (analysis) method with its specific type is entered into the database for prompt selection in further research.
• The third step consists of identifying and describing possible responses to risks. For these purposes, intelligent analysis is used (block 3 in Figure 6). If we have experience in eliminating the consequences of a risky situation, then we can apply modeling. All models are stored in a special repository. If artificial intelligence methods are used, then the training of models is performed on the basis of a training sample.
• The fourth step—risk monitoring—is used to control the state of the environment and determine the parameters at which a critical situation may occur. Data for monitoring are selected at previous stages (during risk analysis and assessment).

Further stages of the risk management cycle serve to adjust the databases in accordance with the actions of risk managers and decision makers.

The conceptual diagram of the decision support system (DSS) is shown in Figure 7. Here, the environmental risk management system is part of the intelligent core of the DSS (data analysis unit).

5. Conclusions

Climate fluctuations provide new opportunities for Arctic development. Arctic development brings not only advantages but also challenges caused by the vulnerability of its ecosystems due to increased emissions from industrial enterprises, transport infrastructure, the tourism industry, and urbanized areas. An analysis of scientific research has shown that one of the ways to reduce emissions is to introduce an environmental risk management system. The system should be based on risk classifiers to identify the most dangerous of them, should have a set of models for predicting dangerous situations that may occur as a result of accidents at potentially hazardous production facilities and complexes, as well as an information and analytical module to support emergency protection planning. In addition, it is necessary to develop the environmental consciousness of the urban population and individual responsibility for maintaining the ecological natural balance both within the framework of professional tasks and in everyday life. However, without active and real support from the state, achieving the preservation of the uniqueness and further development of the Arctic territories will be difficult, if not impossible.

The article examines factors that negatively affect the ecology of the Arctic and classifies potential types of risks. We have developed a risk management algorithm, the key feature of which is feedback, which allows us to adjust environmental protection measures as external factors change. We have developed a conceptual model of a risk management system that can be useful in the practical implementation of the Russian Arctic development strategy until 2035. Further research will be aimed at developing the composition of key performance indicators within the framework of the balanced scorecard, as well as determining their minimum and maximum standard values.