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Ostwald Growth Rate in Controlled Covid-19 Epidemic Spreading as in Arrested Growth in Quantum Complex Matter

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Rome International Centre Materials Science Superstripes RICMASS via dei Sabelli 119A, 00185 Rome, Italy
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Institute of Crystallography, CNR, via Salaria Km 29. 300, Monterotondo Stazione, I-00016 Rome, Italy
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National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), 115409 Moscow, Russia
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INFN-Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy
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School of Pharmacy, Physics Unit, Università di Camerino, 62032 Camerino (MC), Italy
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Condens. Matter 2020, 5(2), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/condmat5020023
Received: 20 March 2020 / Revised: 25 March 2020 / Accepted: 26 March 2020 / Published: 27 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantum Complex Matter 2020)
Here, we focus on the data analysis of the growth of epidemic spread of Covid-19 in countries where different policies of containment were activated. It is known that the growth of pandemic spread at its threshold is exponential, but it is not known how to quantify the success of different containment policies. We identify that a successful approach gives an arrested phase regime following the Ostwald growth, where, over the course of time, one phase transforms into another metastable phase with a similar free energy as observed in oxygen interstitial diffusion in quantum complex matter and in crystallization of proteins. We introduce the s factor which provides a quantitative measure of the efficiency and speed of the adopted containment policy, which is very helpful not only to monitor the Covid-19 pandemic spread but also for other countries to choose the best containment policy. The results show that a policy based on joint confinement, targeted tests, and tracking positive cases is the most rapid pandemic containment policy; in fact, we found values of 9, 5, and 31 for the success s factor for China, South Korea, and Italy, respectively, where the lowest s factor indicates the best containment policy. View Full-Text
Keywords: Covid-19; epidemic control policies; biophysical approach; Ostwald arrested growth; big data analysis; success s factor; best epidemic containment policy Covid-19; epidemic control policies; biophysical approach; Ostwald arrested growth; big data analysis; success s factor; best epidemic containment policy
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Bianconi, A.; Marcelli, A.; Campi, G.; Perali, A. Ostwald Growth Rate in Controlled Covid-19 Epidemic Spreading as in Arrested Growth in Quantum Complex Matter. Condens. Matter 2020, 5, 23.

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