Ethnic Tensions and National (In)Stability in Ethiopia: Analyzing Risks of Ethnic Cleansing

Abstract

This study analyses the ethnic cleansing of the Amhara people, which began during the late TPLF-led EPRDF regime and has continued under Abiy Ahmed’s administration. Despite the severity of these attacks, the Amhara’s plight has been largely ignored. Utilizing primary data from a survey of 183 Ethiopians and secondary data from various sources, the research takes a mixed-methods approach to explore factors contributing to these ethnic-based identity attacks. Findings indicate rising concerns about security, historical grievances, and regional inequalities, highlighting the urgent need for dialogue and inclusive policies to restore national unity and social cohesion. The findings also signify a decline in national unity, with ethnic identity becoming increasingly pronounced amid growing distrust of the central government.

1. Introduction

Ethiopia, one of the oldest nations in the world, has a rich history of resilience and cultural diversity (Wynn et al. 2021). This diversity, however, has led to complex ethnic dynamics among numerous groups, each with its own historical narratives and grievances (Birhan 2024; Tareke 2023). The Amhara people, historically prominent and culturally significant, have increasingly become targets of ethnic-based violence and instability (Chanie and Ishiyama 2021). This study investigates the critical question, ‘Why are the Amhara people targeted?’ This inquiry exposes the vulnerability of the Amhara community in the context of ethnic cleansing and escalating ethno-nationalism, reflecting a complex interplay of historical grievances, political marginalization, and cultural tensions that have been exacerbated by contemporary political dynamics in Ethiopia. By exploring the historical, political, and social dynamics at play, this study aims to uncover the roots of ethnic cleansing and the ongoing instability affecting the Amhara and other ethnic groups in Ethiopia (Mengistu 2015; Moreda 2022).

The historical roots of ethnic tension in Ethiopia date back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly during the ancient kingdom’s interactions with colonial powers (Tazebew 2021). The Italian invasion of Ethiopia in 1935 served as a catalyst for intense nationalism, uniting Ethiopians, including the Amhara, against a common external enemy. However, this invasion also fostered a legacy of conflict and distrust among various ethnic groups (Birhan 2024). Although Ethiopia successfully resisted colonization and became a symbol of anti-colonial resistance in Africa, the aftermath of the war left deep scars and divisions that resurfaced over the decades (Birhan 2024; Tazebew 2021).

The Imperial era in Ethiopia, under the rule of Emperor Haile Selassie from 1930 until 1974, was characterized by significant modernization efforts aimed at maintaining the country’s independence, particularly during the Italian occupation. Selassie’s regime faced substantial criticism for its authoritarian governance and persistent feudal practices, which limited political freedoms and contributed to social inequalities (Vértesy and Lemango 2022). In 1974, the Derg, a military junta, overthrew the monarchy, marking a radical shift in governance. The Derg implemented socialist policies that included the nationalization of land and attempts to redistribute wealth. Nevertheless, this period was marred by severe human rights abuses, particularly during the Red Terror, which resulted in widespread violence and repression (Aalen 2006; Eresso 2021). Both the Imperial and Derg periods have profoundly influenced Ethiopia’s socio-political landscape, creating tensions that continue to affect the nation today (Allaro 2019).

After the fall of the Imperial era and the Derg regime, Ethiopia experienced profound political changes culminating in the 1991 overthrow of the Derg by a coalition of ethno-nationalist forces known as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (Chanie and Ishiyama 2021). Predominantly led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the EPRDF comprised four ethnic-based political parties from major regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and Tigray (Addis et al. 2020). The TPLF implemented a federal system based on ethnic identity, granting significant autonomy to regional groups (Bayu 2022; Ishiyama 2022). While intended to empower marginalized groups, this ethnic-based restructuring inadvertently intensified divisions and competition (Atnafu, 2018; Addis et al. 2020; Yideg and Premanandam 2018; Young 1996).

The Amhara people, historically seen as the dominant group, now navigate a shifting political landscape that increasingly questions their identity and status (Gebrewahd 2021; Tazebew 2021). This shift can be partly attributed to the TPLF, whose manifesto labels the Amhara as its ‘eternal enemy’ (Atnafu 2018; Bamlack 2018; Tamiru 2016; Yideg and Premanandam 2018; Young 1996, 2008). This manifesto, particularly its 1976 declaration for an independent ‘Republic of Tigray’, aims to re-demarcate Tigray’s borders and expand its influence, including territorial ambitions in Amhara (Abbink 2011; Berhe 2004; Marcus 2002; McCracken 2004; Young 2008). The TPLF has propagated narratives that paint the Amhara as ‘oppressors’, undermining their contributions to nation-building (Bamlack 2018; Gebrewahd 2021; Michael 2008). This conspiratorial narrative is supported by the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Oromo elites (Gudina 2007; Jalata 2002).

In 2018, after 27 years of TPLF rule, a massive uprising led to the emergence of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, hereinafter Abiy, which heightened ethnic tensions, particularly against the Amhara in regions like Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz (FBC 2020). Discrimination against the Amhara included the denial of basic services and severe mistreatment, leading to growing inter-ethnic tensions and ultimately contributing to ethnic cleansing (Alehegn 2020; Amhara Association of America 2021; Tazebew 2021). This ethnic cleansing involves widespread atrocities such as mass killings, torture, rape, and forced displacement (Atnafu 2018; Alehegn 2020; Amhara Association of America 2021; Lemkin Institute 2023).

To date, the Amhara community faces violent attacks and ethnic cleansing driven by local grievances, resource competition, and national politics (Gashaw et al. 2024). The rise of ethno-nationalism has exacerbated violence, with reports of mass killings and displacements across the country (Bayu 2022). This escalation threatens the safety of the Amhara and challenges Ethiopia’s unity and stability, as highlighted by studies examining the intricate relationship between ethnic identity and national cohesion (Aragaw 2024; Birhan 2024; Birhan and Christopher 2024). Moreover, the framing of Amhara identity and narratives of victimization contribute to a heightened sense of vulnerability among the community (Ishiyama 2022; Tareke 2023; Vasudeo 2021). This narrative is supported by scholarly works that analyze the historical context of Amhara nationalism and the structural violence inflicted upon them by previous regimes (Bitew 2024; Workneh 2024). The perception of being scapegoated for broader socio-economic issues further inflames ethnic tensions, creating a cycle of violence that undermines reconciliation efforts (Birhan 2024; Birhan and Christopher 2024). The lack of an effective governmental response to these violent episodes raises concerns about systemic neglect and potential complicity, leading to increased insecurity and distrust within the Amhara community (Desalegn et al. 2023).

This study examines the historical and socio-political contexts affecting the Amhara, focusing on key events, policies, and narratives that have shaped their current situation. It aims to uncover the complex factors leading to systematic ethnic cleansing against the Amhara, emphasizing how historical legacies, ongoing conflicts, and future challenges are interwoven in Ethiopia’s diverse landscape. Through this exploration, we seek to deepen understanding of the systematic assault on the Amhara community and highlight the urgent need for dialogue, reconciliation, and sustainable peace initiatives that address the complexities of Ethiopia’s society.

This study significantly contributes to the literature on ethnic conflict in Ethiopia by amplifying the often-overlooked voices of the Amhara community through first-hand accounts gathered from 183 Ethiopian participants both in Ethiopia and the diaspora. By tracing the historical roots of ethnic violence against the Amhara to the late TPLF-led EPRDF regime and its evolution under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the research provides essential context for understanding the current political and social climate, linking it to broader themes of governance and identity politics. It also underscores how the politicization of ethnicity can catalyze violence, impacting national unity and social stability. Furthermore, the manuscript identifies urgent policy needs, calling for dialogue and inclusive policies to address regional inequalities and promote social cohesion, thereby offering actionable solutions for policymakers. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative data with qualitative narratives, the study enriches the analysis and enhances the robustness of its findings.

2. Methodology

The phenomenon of ethnic-based conflict and violence in Ethiopia is deeply rooted in historical contexts that extend beyond current episodes, leading to severe incidents of ethnic cleansing and genocide. This study specifically investigates the ethnic cleansing of the Amhara people, examining both historical and contemporary patterns of violence perpetrated by various authorities and armed groups. The primary objective is to elucidate the underlying reasons for these occurrences and to provide a solid foundation for developing a comprehensive approach to fostering peace in ethnically divided societies like Ethiopia.

To achieve these objectives, the research methodology employs a systematic review of secondary data, incorporating a diverse array of sources such as organizational reports, peer-reviewed scholarly articles, and credible news outlets. This multi-faceted approach allows for a thorough assessment of the extent and nature of ethnic cleansing directed at the Amhara community. The study analyses the types and characteristics of ethnic cleansing through four interrelated theoretical perspectives: historical, contemporary, instrumental, and institutional. Each of these lenses integrates political, sociological, historical, psychological, and economic dimensions, enabling a comprehensive exploration of the diverse factors contributing to the violence and marginalization faced by the Amhara.

In addition to the secondary data analysis, this study utilizes primary data collection through an online survey distributed via social media platforms. The survey targeted various Ethiopian participants without differentiating between demographic characteristics such as Amhara, Oromo, or Tigray, with the assumption that all respondents were representative of the Ethiopian populace. Participants included Ethiopians from various countries, including Ethiopia, China, Japan, Korea, the UK, and the USA. The age range of respondents was between 25 and 45 years, with a significant portion comprising postgraduate students or members of the diaspora.

This study aimed to survey current social and political issues in Ethiopia, initially targeting a sample size of 400 respondents. To determine the appropriate sample size, the research utilized Slovin’s formula, a statistical tool employed for calculating sample size with a specified confidence level (Tejada and Punzalan 2012). With a confidence level of 95%, Slovin’s formula is expressed as follows:

$$n={\displaystyle \frac{N}{1+N({e)}^2}}$$

(1)

where: n: represents required number of sample, N: total population, and e: error tolerance (5% or 0.05).

Using this formula, the study initially calculated a sample size of 200 participants from the targeted group. However, only 183 completed questionnaires were deemed valid for analysis, as the remainder were either incomplete or not relevant to the research objectives. The final cohort consisted of 27 female participants, with the remaining 156 being male. In terms of ethnic representation, 24 participants identified as Tigray, 41 as Amhara, 38 as Oromo, 35 as SNNPR, and the remaining 45 belonged to various other ethnic identities. This comprehensive methodological framework enables the study to offer nuanced insights into the ethnic cleansing of the Amhara and contributes to the broader discourse on ethnic conflict in Ethiopia.

As an ethical consideration, the respondents volunteered to participate in the study and provided written consent before responding the questionnaire. They were told that they could withdraw their participation at any time without any consequences. To ensure maximum anonymity, respondents were not required to provide any personal identifying information.

3. Ethnic Identity Foundations and Marginalization of Amharas: A Theoretical Framework

Various scholars have explored ethnic identity development (Ottoh 2018; Phinney 1989; Smith 1991), defining it as a sense of belonging in shared heritage, language, values, symbols, and history (Epstein and Heizler 2015; Smith 1991). Newman and Newman (2020) further emphasize that ethnic identity involves self-categorization and attachment to a group’s culture and beliefs. This study specifically explores ethnic identity and marginalization factors contributing to ethnic cleaning and genocidal intent against the Amhara in Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia, the prioritization of ethnic identity in political discourse has, at times, exacerbated divisions among various groups. The government’s territorial divisions based on ethnicity have intensified competition for political power and resource control, resulting in conflicts, violence, and instances of displacement (Halabo 2016; Leta et al. 2020). The challenge for Ethiopian policymakers lies in balancing the rights of diverse ethnic groups while preserving national unity.

Despite constitutional protections for all ethnic groups in Ethiopia, minorities such as the Amhara in regions like Benshangul-Gumez, Oromia, and SNNPR face significant political disenfranchisement and human rights violations (Addis et al. 2020; Paulos 2008; Yideg and Premanandam 2018; Young 1996, 2008). This persistent marginalization disenfranchisement ethnic tensions, leading to grave violence against the Amhara community, including mass killings, torture, rape, and forced displacement, instilling profound fear and trauma (Lemkin Institute 2023). Various theoretical frameworks have been proposed to analyze the roots of ethnic conflict in diverse societies, underscoring the urgency for examination and potential resolution (Aalen 2002; Abbink 2011; Paulos 2008).

This study presents four major theoretical frameworks—historical, contemporary, instrumental, and institutional—to explain the structural marginalization, systematic persecution, and indoctrinated hate rhetoric targeting the Amhara in Ethiopia. To strengthen these frameworks, the study also incorporated three contextual dimensions, such as identity theory and social identity theory, cultural hybridity and multiple identities, and state formation and coloniality. The aim of these frameworks is to clarify the ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Amhara and advocate for accountability for the perpetrators involved.

(1) Historical stage (1800–2022): Understanding the root causes of the ethnic problem in Ethiopia necessitates examining historical evidence. The Italian invasion fabricated the notion of Amhara oppressors discourse as a means to weaken collective resistance in Ethiopia, which was later espoused by Ethiopian ethnic elites (Bitew 2023; Tazebew 2021). The Amhara identity is further complicated by Ethiopia’s historical ties to the Solomonic dynasty. Among the four kings who ruled from the mid-1800s—Tewodros II, Yohannes IV, Menelik II, and Haile Selassie I—three, except Yohannes IV, are associated with Amhara identity, although Haile Selassie himself had Oromo heritage (Bailey 2007; Kasuka 2013; Woodward and Forsyth 1994). Importantly, these rulers aimed to unify and defend the territorial boundaries of Ethiopia rather than exclusively benefiting the Amhara identity (Levine 2014; Marcus 2002; Michael 2008; Parlesák 2002). This raises critical questions about the narrative of Amhara oppression, particularly given the TPLF narrative that has gained traction (Tazebew 2021). The Derg regime, sometimes portrayed as pro-Amhara, actually victimized the Amhara despite the leader Mengistu Hailemariam’s Oromo lineage (Moges 2020; Tessema 2018). Thus, there exists a stark contrast between historical reality and the perceptions promoted by the ethnonationalist TPLF and its allies, which have vilified the Amhara as oppressors (Tazebew 2021). This narrative has incited recurrent violence, displacement, and genocidal acts against the Amhara community, particularly during the TPLF-led EPRDF regime (Atnafu 2018).

(2) Contemporary stage (1999–2022): The absence of a national consensus has directly or indirectly influenced the contemporary stage, particularly during the TPLF’s 27 years of dictatorial rule, which intensified animosity against the Amhara, especially in the context of Oromo-Amhara relations (Atnafu 2018; Addis et al. 2020; Marcus 2002; Yideg and Premanandam 2018). The TPLF propagated manipulative narratives that undermined Ethiopia’s rich history, examplified by the controversial monument in Arsi town depicting ‘mutilated breasts of Oromo women’ (Alehegn 2020). Such monuments should foster historical understanding and promote unity, yet this particular monument, based on distorted history, raises concerns about hidden agendas. Rather than fostering understanding, this monument, rooted in a distorted historical narrative, contributed to ongoing violence against the Amhara, including mass killings, looting, and destruction of properties during the TPLF and the current political regime. For instance, Zones in the Oromia region like Arsi and Wollega became epicenters of anti-Amhara and anti-Orthodox massacres (Alehegn 2020; Arga 2022; HRW 2020).

Following Abiy, the Prime Minister and Chairman of the ruling party (Prosperity Party—PP), which is largely influenced by the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), violence escalated in Oromia, resulting in extensive loss of life and targeted attacks against the Amhara community. The ongoing ethnic violence and destruction of Amhara property and Orthodox churches have persisted, yet Abiy’s administration has been criticized for failing to address these issues effectively, protect vulnerable populations, or hold perpetrators accountable (HRW 2020; Peebles 2023). Various literature corroborates these issues (Alehegn 2020; Arga 2022).

(3) Instrumental stage (1999–2022): According to instrumentalism theory, economic and political inequalities contribute to ethnic tensions, complicating conflict resolution (Blagojevic 2009; Cohen 1974; Cornell and Hartmann 2006; Keen 2010). This theory helps explain ethnic cleansing, suggesting that leaders may exploit existing ethnic divisions to consolidate power, distract from pressing issues, or pursue hidden agendas. Such action often aim to eliminate perceived threats to their authority or to alter demographic compositions in favor specific groups, ultimately seeking political control, economic advantage, or social dominance.

The TPLF-led EPRDF exemplifies these dynamics by fostering entrenched socio-economic disparities and creating a power structure that favored certain ethnic groups (Addis et al. 2020; Tamiru 2016; Yideg and Premanandam 2018; Young 1996). This favoritism deepened resentment, particularly among marginalized like the Amhara and Oromo youth (Addis et al. 2020). Leaders created narratives portraying themselves as protectors of their group against perceived threats posed by another, further reinforcing ethnic divisions (Peebles 2023).

From a social constructivist perspective, it is critical to recognize how identities are socially constructed and manipulated within these contexts. The TPLF strategically crafted narratives around ethnic identity to foster loyalty among supporters while dehumanizing opposing groups. This manipulation of identity reinforced ethnic divisions and provided a basis for the justification of extreme actions, including ethnic cleansing. Leaders framed opposition groups as threats to the imagined community, thus legitimizing violent suppression as a form of pre-emptive defense, thus fostered a sense of solidarity among their supporters while alienating others.

Following the TPLF’s ouster, the OPP-led administration faced similar dilemmas. The perception of marginalization among the Amhara population has been exacerbated by the current government’s emphasis on the dominance of Oromo identity in political and economic representation (Peebles 2023). This has not only deepened divisions along ethnic lines but also perpetuated a cycle of suspicion and resentment. As the Amhara people confront to systemic underrepresentation, their collective identity is reshaped, responding to both power dynamic and historical grievances revived in political discourse.

Furthermore, the roles of educational and media institutions are pivotal in perpetuating these narratives (Chanie 2024; Zeyede et al. 2024). These platforms can either unify or deepen divisions by emphasizing historical injustices that reinforce specific ethnic identities. As battlegrounds for identity politics, social institutions impact both individual and collective sentiments that ultimately influence national stability. This understanding broadens the conflict narrative, highlighting how entrenched social constructs can ignite tensions and provoke violence.

(4) Institutional stage (1999–2023): Institutionalism theory sheds light on why certain societies are more susceptible to ethnic cleansing, suggesting that failures in justice and human rights enable extremist groups to act with impunity (Basedau 2011; Easterly 2001). Educational and media institutions play a critical role in perpetuating narratives of oppression, providing platforms that can either unify or divide ethnic groups (Chanie 2024; Zeyede et al. 2024). When educational curricula and public media focus on historical injustices, they may reinforce a sense of victimization aligned with particular ethnic identities, turning social institutions into battlegrounds for identity politics, impacting both individual and collective sentiments, which ultimately influence national stability.

Furthermore, political dominance within specific parties can facilitate control over key state institutions, often prioritizing the interests of their ethnic groups. For example, in Ethiopia, institutions like the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Ministry of Revenue and Customs Authority, and Ministry of Trade have been heavily influenced by TPLF core leaders (Young 1997). Unfortunately, Abiy’s administration led by the OPP is following the same pattern. The outbreak of ethnic aggression often correlates with the strength and integrity of these institutions (Horowitz 1985; Isaacs 1989). For instance, the TPLF-led EPRDF targeted the Amhara people using various state mechanisms.

Institution 1. Census Bureau: The Ethiopian Census Bureau provides essential data for resource allocation and policy design, but has been misused for malicious purposes. In the 2007/2008 national population census, the TPLF-led EPRDF claimed that 2.5 million Amharas had “disappeared”, raising suspicions of ethnic cleansing or genocide given the unchecked demographic assertions, while populations in other regions increased (Tamiru 2016). This deliberate manipulation appears to have been planned and carried out with the aim of eliminating a significant portion of the Amhara population, potentially affecting the region’s overall budget allocation and policy considerations. As of now, there has been no official investigation into the disappearance.

Institution 2. Ministry of Health: The Ministry of Health can also facilitate ethnic cleansing through seemingly innocuous means. One way is through the use of healthcare as a tool for experimentation or forced sterilization (Chalmers 2019; Weisz 2022). Under Tedros Adhanom, who served as health minister from 2005 to 2012, was a core leader of TPLF, and is now the World Health Organization’s director-general, coercive measures employed against Amhara farmers, such as withholding fertilizers and seeds from households where women declined to receive long-acting contraceptives (Alazbih et al. 2017). Consequently, the forced uptake of contraception in the Amhara region has increased nearly five-fold from 7.5% in 2000 to over 33.9% in 2014 (Tadesse et al. 2014), along with a significant decline in fertility rate from 5.9 children per woman in 2000 to 4.2 in 2011, a decrease of approximately 26% over 11 years in the region (Alazbih et al. 2017; Tadesse et al. 2014). These led to a significant decline in fertility rates in the Amhara region. These actions suggest a systematic depopulation effort orchestrated by the TPLF-led EPRDF under the guise of healthcare policies. Additionally, Adhanom deliberately refused to declare a cholera epidemic in Amhara region further illustrates how health policy can be weaponized, which subsequently spread throughout the country (Worku et al. 2020). These examples highlight that while such abuses can occur across various healthcare settings, the Ministry of Health’s pivotal role in controlling healthcare resources makes it particularly susceptible to misuse, thereby contributing to systematic efforts at depopulation under the guise of public health policies.

Institution 3. Health Institutions: Such institutions can perpetrate ethnic cleansing and genocide through the denial of medical care, which can be categorized as a form of medical genocide (Chalmers 2019). This occurs when healthcare access is intentionally withheld from specific groups due to discrimination. In Ethiopia’s Amhara region, there is a significant disparity between the availability of health institutions, such as public clinics, pharmacies, hospitals, and referral hospitals, and the needs of the population. For instance, in 2012 alone, out of approximately 20 million people, there were around 2 million reported cases of malaria (Workineh et al. 2019). Similarly, between 2005 and 2012, there were 102,520 reported suspected malaria cases at the Woreta health center, located in South Gondar (Alelign et al. 2018). Despite nearly 80% of the region being classified as malarious and over 67% of the population was at risk of malaria from 1995 to 2020, healthcare provisions remain grossly insufficient (Yenew et al. 2021). The region also suffers from severe iodine deficiency (Gashu et al. 2016) and faces significant challenges in HIV treatment (Worku et al. 2020), contributing to an evident pattern of medical genocide against the Amhara people, a serious violation of human rights acknowledged by international law (Chalmers 2019).

The current Ethiopian regime, led by Abiy, resembles its predecessor in terms of healthcare segregation, inadequate provision of agricultural soil fertilizers, and the implementation of various economic measures in the Amhara region in response to escalating violence between the Amhara local militia, known as FANO, and the Ethiopian army, directly commanded by Abiy. A state of emergency was declared in August 2023, intensifying existing fears and abuses faced by the Amhara people. This war against the Amhara people reflects a broader pattern of human rights abuses and discrimination within Ethiopia (Amnesty International 2024b). Reports have emerged of mass arrests, internet blockages, extrajudicial killings, and disruptions to essential services (Amnesty International 2024a, 2024c; Bader 2023; EHRC 2023; Peebles 2023). The combination of healthcare and institutional abuses underscores the urgent necessity for transparency, accountability, and efforts to address human rights violations in the region. The humanitarian crisis is acute: over 800,000 people are displaced, and more than 50% of health facilities have been damaged, straining the healthcare system (Mezen et al. 2023). Continuing violence has led to the looting of medical supplies, exacerbating outbreaks of diseases like cholera and malaria amid growing instability (Project HOPE 2024). For instance, since mid-July 2023, a cholera outbreak in Amhara has affected over 2300 people, with reported shortages of medical supplies, waste management materials, and water reservoirs (Project HOPE 2024). Urgent action is needed to address these human rights violations and restore humanitarian operations in the affected areas.

Institution 4. The Ethiopian Road Transport Authority: Road construction and network in Amhara regional state remained far from adequacy comparing to other regions (Legesse 2016). Data from the World Bank supports this, revealing that between 2006 and 2016, Amhara showed minimal improvements in road density and connectivity compared to other Ethiopian regions, such as Addis Ababa, Oromo, and Tigray (Kanth and Geiger 2017), leaving the region categorized as remote and economically underdeveloped and disadvantaged (Kanth and Geiger 2017). According to a report by the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA), less than 38% of Amhara’s total road networks are paved, rendering many rural areas inaccessible. This lack of infrastructure limits access to essential services like healthcare and education, hampers market growth, and restricts labor mobility and the transportation of goods.

Institution 5. Ministry of Labor: While ethnic cleansing is commonly associated with mass killings, it also encompasses forced displacement and the deprivation of basic needs, including healthcare and education. Targeting specific ethnic groups to eliminate perceived competition for jobs and resources can also facilitate economic control by perpetrators. For instance, the TPLF-led EPRDF systematically reduced the number of Amhara employees in civil service positions, adversely impacting the mental and economic well-being of those affected and their families (Young 1996). According to several data sources, the TPLF-led EPRDF exploited political power across various government institutions, including the Ministry of Justice and the federal police department, to advance its own political agenda. Sadly, the current regime, dominated by the OPP, also controls key sectors, including the federal police, republican guard, military operations, economic sectors, and ministerial offices.

1) Identity Theory and Social Identity Theory: These frameworks aid in understanding the ethnic cleansing and genocide faced by the Amhara people in Ethiopia. Hogg et al. (1995) emphasize that individuals seek a positive self-image aligned with their social identities, while Stets and Burke (2000) highlight how group memberships shape self-concept and behavior. In the case of Amhara people, their ethnic identity, rich in cultural heritage and historical significance, has been exploited as a tool for discrimination and violence, aiming to erase their presence by other groups. Analyzing this situation through the lenses of identity theory and social identity theory offers valuable insights into the power dynamics, intergroup conflicts, and psychological processes that perpetuate such atrocities. Understanding these theories is essential for addressing the root of the ethnic cleansing against the Amhara people and fostering inclusive identities to promote harmony within Ethiopian society.

2) Cultural Hybridity and Multiple Identities: In today’s interconnected world, cultural hybridity challenges rigid identity constructs. Paul Gilroy (1993) argues for recognizing the fluid nature of identities, which is especially relevant when examining the Amhara people’s suffering from ethnic cleansing. Targeted violence and cultural destruction against the Amhara underscore the intersections of ethnicity, politics, and cultural diversity. Embracing the concept of multiple identities can help foster dialogue and understanding, creating inclusive environments that respect and preserve diverse cultural heritages.

3) State Formation and Coloniality: These concepts illuminate the dynamics behind the ethnic cleansing of the Amhara in Ethiopia. Scholar Mahmood Mamdani, a renowned scholar in the field, through works like ‘Citizen and Subject’ (Mamdani 1996), ‘When Victims Become Killers’ (Mamdani 2002), ‘Define and Rule’ (Mamdani 2012), and ‘Neither Settler nor Native’ (Mamdani 2020), explores the historical processes contributing to the Amhara community’s marginalization. Alem Habtu’s ‘Ethnic Federalism in Ethiopia’ (Habtu 2003) further examines the relationship between ethnic identity and state structures. Additionally, parallels with the Acholi people of Uganda, as discussed in Elizabeth Laruni’s work (Laruni 2015), highlight similar experiences of discrimination and violence rooted in ethnic identity. The genocide against the Amhara arises from historical grievances and power struggles, emphasizing the need to understand the interplay between colonial legacies and ethnic conflict. Addressing these complexities is vital for fostering peace and social justice in Ethiopia.

The first four key theoretical frameworks and the later three contextual backgrounds illustrate the systematic marginalization, ethnic cleansing, and genocide faced by the Amhara people since the inception of the TPLF (Amhara Association of America 2021; Muluye 2020). Despite these atrocities, both the national government and the international community have largely remained indifferent. The Abiy administration continues the policies of the previous TPLF-led government by shifting from the EPRDF to the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP)-led Prosperity Party (PP). Consequently, addressing Ethiopian politics necessitates a comprehensive approach that calls for greater international attention and intervention.

4. The Atrocious Massacres of Ethnic Amharas: Ethnic Cleansing in a Glance

The Amhara people, one of Ethiopia’s largest ethnic groups, have faced significant violence and discrimination, particularly during the TPLF-led EPRDF regime and in the years following its fall. This examination draws on organizational reports, peer-reviewed scholarly works, and credible news reports regarding ethnic cleansing, which could also be considered genocide against the Amhara. It explores the historical contexts, political dynamics, socio-economic factors, and the impact of government policies that have facilitated violence against this community.

Historically, the Amhara have played a central role in the establishment of the Ethiopian Empire and have been influential in the country’s politics and culture (Yetena 2022). However, since the late 20th century, particularly with the rise of ethnic federalism under the EPRDF, their position has dramatically shifted. Scholars like (Fessha and Dessalegn 2022) and (Bayu 2022) argue that the transition to an ethnic federalist system has exacerbated ethnic divisions, undermining the historical cohesion that characterized Ethiopian society. The TPLF-led EPRDF politicized ethnic rivalries, leading to the systemic marginalization of the Amhara people. Various scholars, including (Chanie and Ishiyama 2021; Young 1997) identifies the TPLF’s consolidation of power as a catalyst for increasing ethnic-based tensions, where the ruling party elevated Tigray’s status while undermining that of the Amhara. The TPLF-led EPRDF’s policies fostered ethnic nationalism, often portraying the Amhara as ‘oppressors’ and attributing socio-economic disparities to their historical dominance (Abbink 2021; Bihonegn and Mekonen 2023). Studies by (Bitew 2024) and (Gashaw et al. 2024) provides a compelling analysis of how the TPLF’s narratives painted the Amhara as historical enemies. This portrayal justified targeted state violence against the Amhara people, including arbitrary arrests, land confiscation, forced evictions, and ethnic cleansing (Abbink 2021; Bihonegn and Mekonen 2023; Gashaw et al. 2024).

Reports from various human rights organizations, such as the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF 2021), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA 2023), Amnesty International (2020b, 2022), Human Rights Watch (HRW 2020), (Bader 2023), and EHRC (2023) document instances of ethnic violence and systemic cleansing targeting the Amhara. These reports highlight mass killings, forced displacements, and attempts to homogenize certain regions by eliminating the Amhara presence. Studies elsewhere corroborated the reports (Bayu and Sunjo 2023; Zewude and Siraw 2024). Additionally, research by Tamiru (2016) indicates that the violence against the Amhara was not merely spontaneous ethnic clashes but rather a systematic campaign. Tamiru (2016) quotes eyewitness accounts and documented evidence of extrajudicial killings, particularly in regions with concentrated Amhara populations, have contributed to a collective memory of fear and persecution within the community. Research from various sources has documented instances of violence against the Amhara community and raised concerns regarding potential acts that could be classified as genocide or ethnic cleansing (Alehegn 2020; Lemkin Institute 2023; Yeshaw 2016).

Despite hopes for reconciliation following the transition to the Abiy administration in 2018, violence against the Amhara has persisted. Reports indicate that patterns of ethnic violence have continued under the current regime, supported by an ambiguous approach to ethnic politics. The United Nation Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNOHCHR 2023, 2024), Amnesty International (2024a, 2024b), Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRC 2023, 2024), and European Centre for Law and Justice (ECLJ 2024) have documented ongoing forced evictions and land grabs aimed at the Amhara and other non-Oromo residences, particularly in Addis Ababa and ‘Shaggar city’ development contexts. For instance, the Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRC) report highlights the ongoing issue of forced evictions and deliberate demolitions in the outskirts of Addis Ababa, known as ‘Shaggar city’, and underscores the need for greater protection of human rights in urban development projects. The EHRC report disclosed, at least 111,811 houses have recently been demolished in the outskirts of Addis Ababa, leaving thousands homeless (Mereja 2023). Some claims, this razing houses is based on ethnic discrimination, primarily targets the non-Oromos, especially Amharas and Gurages, to resettle Oromo ‘peasants’, which clearly demonstrates an act of demographic engineering by the regime. Authorities are also demolishing churches and mosques to make way for a new city named Shaggar, resulting in tense protests, mass arrests, and deadly clashes with the police (Mereja 2023). Several religious buildings have already been bulldozed, with dozens more slated for demolition.

Inter-ethnic violence has continued in Abiy’s regime, causing the displacement of over 700,000 people in the Amhara region and leaving one million individuals in urgent need of food and shelter (UN 2021). As of 21 April 2023, it was reported that more than 300,000 Amhara refugees had fled to the West Gojam zone since 2018. The healthcare and food supplies for internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Wollega, Metekel, and Addis Ababa have deteriorated severely. Though specific victim statistics may be difficult to access, evidence presented in (Atnafu 2018, pp. 94–97) as well as

Table 1. List of incidents of ethnic cleansing against the Amhara from September 2020 to August 2021.

Date of the Incidents	Places of Incidents		Victims	Displaced People	Responsible Body
	Regional States	Zone, District, Village	Members of the Amhara Ethnic Group (Individuals)
Late September 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Dangur district, Bengez kebele	Over 15 (Al Jazeera 2020)	Hundreds	Armed assailants
24 September 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Dangur district, Bengez kebele	Over 45 (Amnesty International 2020c)	Thousands	Armed assailants
October 2020	SNNPR	Bench Sheko Zone, Guraferda district	Over 31 (Amnesty International 2020a)	Hundreds	Groups of armed youth
October 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone	Over 12 (Al Jazeera 2020)	Hundreds	Armed assailants
01 November 2020	Oromia	Western Wollega Zone, Guliso district, GawaQanqa village	Over 54 (Amnesty International 2020b; Dahir 2020)	Thousands	The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) armed group
08 November 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Dibate district	Over 10 (Mekonnen 2020a)	Unknown	The OLF/Shane militants
09 November 2020	Humera Zone in Gondar	Mai-Kadra	Over 800 (Abbink 2021)	Hundred thousands	Tigray Special Police Force and other TPLF members
14 November 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Dibate district	Over 35 (Al Jazeera 2020)	Thousands	Armed Gumuz forces
13 December 2020	Oromia	Wollega Zone, Horo Guduru village	Over 19 (Mekonnen 2020b)	Thousands	The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)
23 December 2020	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Bullenn district, Guji village	Over 100 (Ethiopian Monitor 2020; Mekonnen and Fasil 2020)	Thousands	Armed members of the ethnic Gumuz community
13 January 2021	Benishangul-Gumuz	Metekel Zone, Daleti village	Over 80 (Yahoo News 2021; Houston Chronicle 2021)	Thousands	Armed groups
August 2021	Oromia	Gida-Kiremu	Over 210 (Al Jazeera 2021)	Thousands	OLA

Source: Author’s composition according to the data available. Note: Name of Zones, Districts, and Villages are directly translated.

below indicates that the violence against the Amhara people constitutes ethnic cleansing, potentially amounting to genocide. This highlights the neglect of the situation by both national and international communities.

Scholars critique the current Ethiopian government’s failure to establish effective institutions for conflict resolution and protection of minority rights, highlighting a consistent pattern where state policies foster climates of impunity for violence against the Amhara (Bayu and Sunjo 2023; Chanie and Ishiyama 2021; Gashaw et al. 2024). Recent literature indicates a shift towards grassroots mobilization among the Amhara to counteract the discrimination they face. The rise of Amhara nationalist movements has been documented, focusing on calls for self-determination and protection of their rights (Chanie and Ishiyama 2021; Chanie 2024; Yihunie 2024). These groups aim to challenge prevailing narratives and demand actionable policies for equality and justice.

5. Discussion on Survey Analysis of National and Ethnic Identity in Ethiopia

In multi-ethnic countries like Ethiopia, national and ethnic identities are crucial for fostering unity and social stability. Comprising over 80 distinct nations and nationalities, Ethiopia presents a unique case for examining how these identities influence mental health, personality development, and national cohesion. Research indicates that in ethnically diverse regions, stronger ethnic identification often correlates with diminished national sentiment, thereby increasing polarization (Phinney 1996; Ilorah 2009; Masella 2013).

This study, conducted through a survey of 183 Ethiopians living in Ethiopia and abroad, reveals a significant shift in identity perceptions, particularly among the Amhara ethnic group. Historically characterized by a strong sense of ‘Ethiopianism’ (Mains 2004), our findings indicate a troubling trend toward declining national attachment and a surge in ethnic nationalism (see

Table 2. Perceivance of identity.

Taking the current situation into consideration: every Ethiopian, no matter in what ethnic identity they belong to, has the feeling of proud nationality than their ethnic identity
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Strongly Disagree	61	33.3	33.3	33.3
	Disagree	32	17.5	17.5	50.8
	Neutral	7	3.8	3.8	54.6
	Agree	60	32.8	32.8	87.4
	Strongly Agree	23	12.6	12.6	100.0
	Total	183	100.0	100.0

Source: Author’s computation based on survey data. Note: The points in the left column are response categories or Likert scale items that the respondents selected.

). This shift implies that as the Amhara increasingly embrace their ethnic identity, their emotional ties to a cohesive national identity are diminishing, heightening the potential for ethnic polarization.

Contrary to the findings of Ishiyama and Basnet (2022), which suggested that only Oromo and Tigrayan respondents were experiencing a decline in national identity and a rise in ethno-nationalism, our research demonstrates that the Amhara are also fostering a stronger sense of ethnic identity, albeit different in degree. This indicates a broader pattern of ethnic identification among all major groups in Ethiopia, suggesting that the dynamics of national and ethnic identities are more complex and interconnected than previously understood.

The responses to the questionnaire regarding national pride versus ethnic identity among Ethiopian participants reveal a complex landscape of identity perceptions in the current social and political climate (see Table 2). A significant portion of respondents, 33.4%, strongly disagreed with the notion that national pride supersedes ethnic identity, highlighting the importance of ethnic affiliations as essential components of self-identity and belonging for many Ethiopians.

Conversely, a combined 45.4% of participants expressed agreement with the statement, suggesting that there is a growing sentiment of national unity among certain groups, potentially linked to historical efforts aimed at promoting a cohesive national identity in response to recent challenges. The low percentage of neutral responses, at just 3.8%, signifies that most participants have a definitive stance on this issue, reflecting either a commitment to ethnic identity or an emerging sense of national pride (see Table 2). Furthermore, the diversity of these responses indicates a generational divide, where some individuals with deep-rooted ethnic ties may prioritize their ethnic identities, while few respondents or those involved in broader social movements may gravitate towards a more unified national identity. This nuanced perspective speaks to the intricate relationship between ethnic and national pride in Ethiopia and underscores the ongoing dialogue needed to navigate these complex identities.

The study survey results indicate a decline in feelings of affection and patriotism towards nationality in Ethiopia, which may influence the country towards conflict. Scholars argue that high ethnic polarization likely leads to conflict. Masella, for instance, noted, ‘In countries with high levels of ethnic polarization, the probability of civil conflict is higher’ (2013, p. 437). The analysis of survey responses concerning fears of civil conflict and assessing perceptions of Ethiopia’s future, particularly when compared to the historical contexts of Rwanda and Yugoslavia, reveals significant insights into participants’ perceptions on the nation’s political trajectory. A notable majority, approximately 55.1%, express deep concerns about potential political upheaval, reflecting widespread apprehension that Ethiopia could face turmoil akin to that experienced in these nations (see

Table 3. Fear of civil conflict.

The future of Ethiopia will be like former Rwanda or maybe Yugoslavia, which results in a serious of political upheavals and civil conflicts
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Strongly Disagree	40	21.9	21.9	21.9
	Disagree	37	20.2	20.2	42.1
	Neutral	5	2.7	2.7	44.8
	Agree	72	39.3	39.3	84.2
	Strongly Agree	29	15.8	15.8	100.0
	Total	183	100.0	100.0

Source: Author’s computation based on survey data. Note: The points in the left column are response categories or Likert scale items that the respondents selected.

). This anxiety is likely rooted in the current socio-political climate, marked by ethnic divisions and historical grievances that have shaped the nation’s landscape.

However, in contrast, 21.9% of respondents strongly disagreed with the premise, indicating a minority that maintains optimism about Ethiopia’s prospects. This sense of hope may stem from faith in ongoing reforms and leadership initiatives aimed at fostering unity and addressing tensions. The remarkably low neutral response rate of 2.7% further emphasizes the polarization of opinions, suggesting that participants hold either strong fears or unwavering confidence in Ethiopia’s ability to avoid conflict, highlighting the emotionally charged nature of national identity and security issues (see Table 3). Additionally, these divergent views illustrate how personal experiences, ethnic affiliations, and political beliefs significantly influence perceptions of civil conflict, as those affected by past strife or attuned to current tensions may be more likely to anticipate crisis scenarios (negative outcomes), while others, who perceive positive developments, lean towards a more hopeful outlook for the future.

Moreover, researchers speculated that ethnic diversity negatively impacts social security, political stability, and economic development (Adamu 2013; Ilorah 2009; Masella 2013; Mishali-Ram 2006). Ethnic diversity-related issues such as ethnic inequality, cultural resistance, minority rights, political representation, religious suppression, and national resource allocation have been historically and contemporarily prevalent problems in Ethiopia (Adamu 2013; Ilorah 2009). Similarly, ethnic diversities are characterized by favoritism and bias (Ilorah 2009).

The responses to the questionnaire concerning perceptions of political and economic equality among regions in Ethiopia reveal compelling insights into participants’ views on fairness and opportunity within the country. An overwhelming 90.7% of respondents, combining those who strongly disagree and disagree, believe there is a significant lack of equality, highlighting deep-rooted concerns about the unequal distribution of resources, opportunities, and political power, issues likely rooted in historical patterns of marginalization faced by various ethnic groups and regions (see

Table 4. Political and economic equality.

Currently, there is a political and economic equality between all regions in Ethiopia
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Strongly Disagree	123	67.2	67.2	67.2
	Disagree	43	23.5	23.5	90.7
	Neutral	8	4.4	4.4	95.1
	Agree	3	1.6	1.6	96.7
	Strongly Agree	6	3.3	3.3	100.0
	Total	183	100.0	100.0

Source: Author’s computation based on survey data. Note: The points in the left column are response categories or Likert scale items that the respondents selected.

).

In stark contrast, only 9.9% of participants indicated any belief in the existence of political and economic equality, suggesting that few perceive current initiatives as effective in addressing these disparities. The exceptionally low neutral response rate of 4.4% further underscores the polarized nature of opinions, as most individuals have strong feelings, either skepticism or hope, regarding the political and economic landscape. Such perceptions of inequality carry broader implications for social cohesion and national stability, potentially leading to feelings of disenfranchisement and unrest among marginalized regions. Therefore, it is imperative to address these disparities to foster a sense of unity and collaboration across Ethiopia’s diverse regions. Additionally, the overwhelmingly negative perceptions expressed may reflect the realities experienced by individuals, especially those from historically marginalized areas, where experiences of inequality are closely tied to economic conditions, access to services, and political representation, all of which differ markedly across the nation.

Incidentally, the survey examining perceptions of party dominance over political and economic power in Ethiopia reveals significant insights into the current political landscape, highlighting a clear prevailing influence of the OPP, which received 101 mentions from participants. This substantial response underscores a widespread belief that the OPP is the leading political force at present, likely reflecting its prominent role within the ruling coalition and its significant impact on national policies and economic priorities (see

Table 5. Party dominance on the aspects of political power and economy.

By taking the current situation into consideration in the country which party do you think has dominance over Ethiopian politics and economy currently?
		ANPP	APP	BGPP	GPPM	HNL	OPP	SEPPM	SPP	TPLF	Equal
N	Valid	0	21	0	0	0	101	0	2	15	44
	Missing	183	162	183	183	183	60	183	181	168	129
	Percentage		11.5%				55.2%		1.1%	8.2%	24%

Source: Author’s computation based on survey data. Note: (ANPP)—Afar National Prosperity Party, (APP)—Amhara Prosperity Party, (BGPP)—Benishangul-Gumuz Prosperity Party, (GPPM)—Gambela Peoples Democratic Movement, (HNL)—Harari National League, (OPP)—Oromo Prosperity Party, (SEPPM)—Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Prosperity Movement, (SPP)—Somali Prosperity Party, and (TPLF)—Tigray People Liberation Front. Note: The points in the left column are response categories or Likert scale items that the respondents selected.

).

In contrast, the APP and the TPLF garnered only 21 and 15 responses, respectively, pointing to a marked disparity in influence compared to the ODP. The noticeable absence of recognition for several other parties, such as ANPP, BGPP, GPPM, HNL, and SEPPM, may indicate either a lack of awareness regarding these groups or a perception of their diminished relevance in shaping Ethiopia’s political and economic discourse. Additionally, the 44 respondents who indicated either equal power among parties or no dominant party reflect a political polarization that acknowledges the complexities of Ethiopia’s diverse political environment; this viewpoint suggests that despite the OPP’s dominance, other parties still play an essential role in the political fabric. Such perceptions of significant party dominance could lead to feelings of disenfranchisement among supporters of less influential parties, potentially undermining political stability and social cohesion.

Therefore, addressing these sentiments is crucial for promoting collaboration and inclusivity within the country’s complex ethnic and political landscape. Furthermore, the strong support for the OPP, primarily associated with the Oromo ethnic group, highlights the critical role that regional identity plays in political engagement, suggesting a widespread desire for a governance structure that prioritizes the interests of various ethnic communities. This emphasis on regional considerations underscores the necessity for equitable political representation and dialogue to foster a stable and unified Ethiopia.

Incidentally, the analysis of responses to the questionnaire regarding perceptions of ethnic cleansing against the Amhara people in Ethiopia provides crucial insights into this complex and sensitive issue. Approximately 51.4% of participants believe that ethnic cleansing has occurred against the Amhara during both historical and current regimes, reflecting deep concern for the community’s treatment and a significant level of anxiety about their safety and rights within the broader socio-political landscape (see

Table 6. Ethnic cleansing against Amhara.

There is ethnic cleansing against the Amhara people in the country during both the previous and current regimes.
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Strongly Disagree	21	11.5	11.5	11.5
	Disagree	33	18.0	18.0	29.5
	Neutral	35	19.1	19.1	48.6
	Agree	49	26.8	26.8	75.4
	Strongly Agree	45	24.6	24.6	100.0
	Total	183	100.0	100.0

Source: Author’s computation based on survey data. Note: The points in the left column are response categories or Likert scale items that the respondents selected.

). Our results verified the claims of various scholars regarding the ethnic cleansing and genocide of the Amhara people in Ethiopia during both the previous and current regimes (Atnafu 2018; Abbink 2021; Alehegn 2020; Bihonegn and Mekonen 2023; Gashaw et al. 2024; Lemkin Institute 2023; Tamiru 2016; Yeshaw 2016).

Notably, over 19% of respondents remain neutral, indicating ambivalence or uncertainty regarding the situation. This neutrality could stem from various factors, including a lack of information, personal experiences that do not align with claims of ethnic cleansing, or an unwillingness to engage in potentially contentious discussions about ethnicity and violence in Ethiopia. This neutrality should not be misconstrued as denial; it reflects a complex mix of beliefs and societal influences.

Conversely, around 29.5% of respondents either strongly or somewhat disagree with this assertion, highlighting a substantial ambivalence that suggests varying degrees of awareness and opinion regarding the challenges faced by the Amhara people. This polarization in views underscores the complexity of Ethiopia’s ethnic and political contexts, where experiences and perceptions greatly differ. Moreover, the prevalent belief in ethnic cleansing has serious implications for social cohesion and national unity, as it may exacerbate existing ethnic tensions and foster insecurity among communities feeling threatened or marginalized. Individual experiences, particularly among those directly affected by violence or discrimination, likely influence these perceptions, while those from different ethnic backgrounds may hold contrasting views shaped by their own historical contexts.

In light of these findings, there is an urgent need for open dialogue and reconciliation efforts to address these grievances, ensuring that the voices of the Amhara and other marginalized communities are acknowledged. By focusing on the root causes of ethnic tensions and promoting equitable treatment for all groups, Ethiopia can work towards a more stable and inclusive political environment, fostering trust and cooperation among its diverse populations.

6. Conclusions

The findings of this research highlight the intricate interplay of identity, ethnic pride, and national unity in Ethiopia, indicating an urgent need for comprehensive policies that embrace the nation’s ethnic diversity while fostering cohesion. The survey reveals that many Ethiopians harbor deep concerns about their future, drawing unsettling parallels to past conflicts such as those in Rwanda and Yugoslavia. While some participants express optimism about ongoing reforms, a prevalent sentiment is the perceived lack of political and economic equity across regions, which fuels skepticism about the current regime. This landscape is further complicated by the perception of the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP) as a dominant economic and political force, emphasizing the need for leaders to create an inclusive framework that acknowledges the varied experiences of all ethnic groups.

Furthermore, a significant belief in ethnic cleansing against the Amhara people raises serious alarms regarding their security and highlights the urgent need for constructive dialogue to recognize and address these grievances. The ethnic conflict in Ethiopia, fueled by over 80 competing groups and exacerbated by historical injustices, has resulted in severe violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises, with many individuals living in refugee camps under dire conditions (UN 2021). Recent political violence, particularly targeting the Amhara, illustrates a chilling rise in terror, including extrajudicial killings and community destruction, often underpinned by attempts to exploit ethnic divisions for political gain (Bitew 2023; Chanie 2024; Zeyede et al. 2024).

The devastation in communities like Ataye, located 167 miles northeast of Addis Ababa in the Amhara region, starkly reflects the violence, where displacements and destruction have become commonplace, further heightening tensions within an already fragile socio-political landscape (France 24 2021; Tsegaye 2021). The proximity of Ataye to the Oromia region has fueled ambitions for territorial annexation among some Oromo elites, complicating the conflict further. Reports of sexual violence against Amhara women highlight the brutality of the situation (Lemkin Institute 2023; Tsegaye 2021). Since Abiy took office, the town has experienced multiple waves of ethnic cleansing, resulting in the destruction of approximately 1600 homes and a mass exodus (France 24 2021; Tsegaye 2021).

The ongoing violence poses existential threats not only to the Amhara identity but also to Ethiopia’s cultural and social fabric, necessitating urgent interventions to safeguard these communities and their heritage (Desalegn et al. 2023). In light of the growing discord and declining national unity, particularly manifesting as hostility toward Amhara residents in cities like Addis Ababa, the path to peace and stability in Ethiopia lies in genuine dialogue and national reconciliation (Birhan 2024; Birhan and Christopher 2024; Lemkin Institute 2023). Addressing these foundational issues is critical for achieving lasting peace and fostering a more inclusive and stable national identity that appreciates the rich tapestry of Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic landscape.

Limitations of the Study

Despite the numerous strengths of this study, it is important to recognize its limitations. Firstly, the reliance on social media for data collection may introduce biases tied to the digital divide, limiting the representation of those with less access to technology. Additionally, the study also faced a gender imbalance, with more male respondents, which may skew the insights on social and political issues. Moreover, the cross-sectional design of the study restricts the understanding of evolving socio-political dynamics in Ethiopia. These limitations warrant careful interpretation of the findings and highlight the need for future research to employ more diverse sampling methods and accounting for of contextual factors to enrich the understanding of the topic.