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Batteries
Volume 11
Issue 10
10.3390/batteries11100370
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Article

A Novel Approach to Day-Ahead Forecasting of Battery Discharge Profiles in Grid Applications Using Historical Daily

by
Marek Bobček
,
Róbert Štefko
,
Július Šimčák
* and
Zsolt Čonka
Technical University of Košice, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, 040 01 Košice, Slovakia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Batteries 2025, 11(10), 370; https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries11100370 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 14 August 2025 / Revised: 30 September 2025 / Accepted: 4 October 2025 / Published: 6 October 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Towards a Smarter Battery Management System: 3rd Edition)
Versions Notes

Abstract

This paper presents a day-ahead forecasting approach for discharge profiles of a 0.5 MW battery energy storage system connected to the power grid, utilizing historical daily discharge profiles collected over one year to capture key operational patterns and variability. Two forecasting techniques are employed: a Kalman filter for dynamic state estimation and Holt’s exponential smoothing method enhanced with adaptive alpha to capture trend changes more responsively. These methods are applied to generate next-day discharge forecasts, aiming to support better battery scheduling, improve grid interaction, and enhance overall energy management. The accuracy and robustness of the forecasts are evaluated against real operational data. The results confirm that combining model-based and statistical techniques offers a reliable and flexible solution for short-term battery discharge prediction in real-world grid applications.
Keywords: battery; prediction; power grid; consumption energy; Kalman filter; Holt’s exponential smoothing battery; prediction; power grid; consumption energy; Kalman filter; Holt’s exponential smoothing

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MDPI and ACS Style

Bobček, M.; Štefko, R.; Šimčák, J.; Čonka, Z. A Novel Approach to Day-Ahead Forecasting of Battery Discharge Profiles in Grid Applications Using Historical Daily. Batteries 2025, 11, 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries11100370

AMA Style

Bobček M, Štefko R, Šimčák J, Čonka Z. A Novel Approach to Day-Ahead Forecasting of Battery Discharge Profiles in Grid Applications Using Historical Daily. Batteries. 2025; 11(10):370. https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries11100370

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bobček, Marek, Róbert Štefko, Július Šimčák, and Zsolt Čonka. 2025. "A Novel Approach to Day-Ahead Forecasting of Battery Discharge Profiles in Grid Applications Using Historical Daily" Batteries 11, no. 10: 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries11100370

APA Style

Bobček, M., Štefko, R., Šimčák, J., & Čonka, Z. (2025). A Novel Approach to Day-Ahead Forecasting of Battery Discharge Profiles in Grid Applications Using Historical Daily. Batteries, 11(10), 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries11100370

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