Research on Remote Sensing Inversion of Total Phosphorus in East Juyan Lake Based on Machine Learning

Timely and accurate monitoring of lakes’ water quality is crucial for assessing regional ecological health and implementing targeted conservation activities. Compared with traditional in situ water quality measurement methods, satellite remote sensing technology is more cost-effective and convenient, and also enables long-term time-series monitoring. This study utilizes Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery, selects East Juyan Lake as the study area, and employs measured water quality data from 30 in situ sampling points as training and testing samples. Using the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and mean absolute error as evaluation metrics, a Grid Search-based XGBoost machine-learning method is applied to invert the concentration of total phosphorus (TP), a key parameter for water quality assessment. The experiments demonstrate that: (1) The XGBoost model, after parameter tuning via Grid Search, achieved the highest inversion accuracy, with R², RMSE, and MRE values of 0.856, 0.017, and 7.20%, respectively; The average TP concentration retrieved for the lake was 0.231 mg/L. This method requires minimal manual setting of numerous training parameters, reducing human intervention. (2) The spatial distribution shows that TP is primarily enriched in the deeper central and eastern parts of the lake, while concentrations are relatively lower in the near-shore vegetation zones and the western shallow water areas. The findings provide a significant reference for remote sensing monitoring of lake water quality and can be used to predict and regulate salinity, eutrophication, and similar conditions in comparable lakes.