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Persistence of Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads

by Xin Huang
Federal Reserve Board, 20th & C St., NW, Washington, DC 20551, USA
I thank the anonymous referees for valuable comments. I also thank Jeff Gould for research assistance and David Jenkins for editing assistance The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Board of Governors or its staff.
Risks 2019, 7(3), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks7030090
Received: 27 June 2019 / Revised: 19 July 2019 / Accepted: 29 July 2019 / Published: 26 August 2019
Credit default swap (CDS) spreads measure the default risk of the reference entity and have been frequently used in recent empirical papers. To provide a rigorous econometrics foundation for empirical CDS analysis, this paper applies the augmented Dickey–Fuller, Phillips–Perron, Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin, and Ng–Perron tests to study the unit root property of CDS spreads, and it uses the Phillips–Ouliaris–Hansen tests to determine whether they are cointegrated. The empirical sample consists of daily CDS spreads of the six large U.S. banks from 2001 to 2018. The main findings are that it is log, not raw, CDS spreads that are unit root processes, and that log CDS spreads are cointegrated. These findings imply that, even though the risks of individual banks may deviate from each other in the short run, there is a long-run relation that ties them together. As these CDS spreads are an important input for financial systemic risk, there are at least two policy implications. First, in monitoring systemic risk, policymakers should focus on long-run trends rather than short-run fluctuations of CDS spreads. Second, in controlling systemic risk, policy measures that reduce the long-run risks of individual banks, such as stress testing and capital buffers, are helpful in mitigating overall systemic risk. View Full-Text
Keywords: credit default swap spreads; unit root; cointegration credit default swap spreads; unit root; cointegration
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Huang, X. Persistence of Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads. Risks 2019, 7, 90.

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