3.1. Research Design and Variable Definition
The econometric analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel data regression model with fixed effects. This approach allows for controlling unobserved heterogeneity across cross-sectional units while estimating dynamic relationships over time (
Wooldridge 2010). In addition, it enables the use of a larger dataset than would be possible if only firms with complete time-series observations were retained. Based on the reviewed literature, an econometric model was developed to test the study’s hypotheses. The dependent variable is Abnormal Idiosyncratic Volatility (
AIV), which serves as a proxy for opportunistic insider trading. Accordingly, the baseline econometric specification is presented in Equation (1):
Equation (1) evaluates whether corporate governance mechanisms mitigate indications of opportunistic insider trading, as proposed in Hypothesis H1. To enhance the robustness of the findings, an alternative specification was estimated in which AIV was replaced by Tarnished Reputation (NREP), measured by the number of financial statement restatements. Prior studies document that firms with opportunistic insiders exhibit a higher incidence of restatements, making this variable a suitable proxy for opportunistic behavior (
Ali and Hirshleifer 2017;
Javakhadze et al. 2025;
Asante-Appiah and Lambert 2022). The robustness model is specified in Equation (2):
Compared with Equation (1), Equation (2) replaces AIV with NREP and excludes variables not applicable to the robustness specification. This procedure reduces potential endogeneity concerns and strengthens the credibility of the empirical results.
Table 1 presents the variables used in the study, including their abbreviations, definitions, expected signs, and theoretical foundations, and classifies them as dependent, independent, or control variables.
The table with additional information about the variables is included in the
Appendix A. The primary dependent variable, AIV, captures signs of opportunistic insider trading.
Yang et al. (
2020) document a positive relationship between AIV and abnormal gains prior to earnings announcements and show that lower AIV values are associated with reduced information risk. Because insider trading affects both trading intensity and price dynamics, AIV serves as a price-based measure of information risk. Consistent with the literature, insider trading occurring before earnings announcements exerts a stronger effect on stock prices, as information becomes particularly valuable in uncertain environments (
Arrow 1963;
Chauhan et al. 2016).
To construct AIV, five steps were followed: (i) data collection; (ii) estimation of daily residuals using prior-year data; (iii) aggregation of residuals for the pre-earnings announcement (PEA) and non-event announcement (NEA) periods; (iv) computation of IVPEA and IVNEA; and (v) calculation of AIV. The PEA corresponds to the five trading days preceding disclosure, whereas the NEA includes all trading days in a one-year window excluding the eleven-day event window (the disclosure day, five days before, and five days after). Disclosure dates and times for quarterly and annual financial statements and material facts were obtained from official filings. When disclosures occurred between 00:00 and 10:00 a.m., the same trading day was retained; disclosures between 10:01 a.m. and 11:59 p.m. were assigned to the following trading day, as intraday disclosures may affect trading behavior.
Daily residuals were estimated using rolling regressions implemented in statistical software., resulting in more than one million regressions. Specifically, for each of 3024 trading days, returns from the previous 252 trading days were used to estimate the Fama–French three-factor model (
Fama and French 1993), as shown in Equation (3):
where
Ri,t represents return of firm,
RFt is risk-free rate;
MKT is the difference between the daily returns weighted by the market value of the portfolio,
SMB represents return of a portfolio long in stocks with low market capitalization (small) and short in stocks with high market capitalization (large),
HML is the return of a portfolio long in stocks with a high book-to-market ratio and short in stocks with a low book-to-market ratio, and ε is the residual of the model referring to portfolio.
Idiosyncratic volatility for the PEA and NEA periods was then calculated as:
where
nPEA represents the number of days before results announcement and
nNEA is the number of days after results announcement.
AIV is defined as the difference between these two components:
With respect to external monitoring, the model includes a dummy variable indicating whether the firm is audited by a Big Four auditor (AUDB4). Prior research documents higher audit quality when audits are conducted by large international audit firms (
Francis and Yu 2009;
Eshleman and Guo 2014). However, more recent evidence highlights the provision of consulting services by Big Four firms to companies involved in corporate scandals (
Abid et al. 2018;
Donelson et al. 2020;
Hasnan et al. 2022;
Friedrich and Quick 2024). Consequently, the relationship between Big Four auditing and AIV may be positive in contexts such as Brazil, where ownership concentration and informational asymmetry are high, potentially limiting auditors’ ability to fully deter opportunistic behavior. Alternatively, this relationship may be negative, given the superior resources, expertise, and monitoring capacity of large audit firms.
Managers are increasingly concerned about reputational risk and the possibility that opportunistic behavior ex ante may lead to reputational losses ex post (
Gao et al. 2014). Corporate reputation reflects stakeholders’ aggregate perceptions of a firm’s legitimacy, ethical conduct, and long-term sustainability. Accordingly, the firm’s ESG score was included as a proxy for Good Reputation (GREP), as ESG performance constitutes an intangible asset that promotes managerial self-discipline (
Gao et al. 2014). Firms with higher ESG scores are expected to adopt more ethical practices due to concerns about market perception and potential involvement in scandals. ESG scores, provided by Refinitiv, range from 0 to 100 and consolidate the Environmental, Social, and Governance dimensions based on publicly disclosed information.
To capture the firm’s information environment, the number of analysts covering the firm was included as a proxy for Information Quality (IQ). Analyst coverage reflects firms’ transparency and visibility in capital markets, as analysts act as information intermediaries who disseminate, interpret, and monitor corporate disclosures. Prior studies consistently associate higher analyst coverage with lower information asymmetry and greater transparency, rather than solely with accounting quality (
Hillier et al. 2015;
Ellul and Panayides 2018). Accordingly, higher levels of IQ are expected to be associated with fewer indications of opportunistic insider trading.
Rahman et al. (
2021) document that board independence restricts opportunistic insider trading in Australian firms. However, in family-controlled firms, concentrated ownership may undermine board independence and weaken monitoring effectiveness (
Jaggi and Tsui 2007). Evidence from emerging markets, such as Taiwan, further indicates that family firms engage more frequently in insider trading activities (
Tang et al. 2013). Firms with concentrated ownership may leverage control to manipulate results and engage in opportunistic trading. Thus, it is expected that Non-Family Firms (NFF) reduce the likelihood of opportunistic behavior, whereas a higher proportion of family members on the board (FBOARD) weakens monitoring and increases the potential for self-interested misconduct.
Several control variables related to firms’ information disclosure and signaling were included. Dividend Yield (DY) reflects expectations about future performance (
de Pietro Neto et al. 2011). Shareholders with confidence in a firm’s prospects may prefer earnings retention to finance investment, whereas dividend demands increase when growth prospects are limited (
La Porta et al. 2000). Moreover,
Simon et al. (
2019) find that firms with lower profitability may distribute higher dividends to signal favorable future outcomes. Accordingly, a positive relationship between DY and AIV is expected. The following equation was used to calculate Dividend Yield:
where
DY represents dividend yield,
D is the amount of dividends paid per share, and
Pt−1 is the value of the company’s share on the day before the announcement date.
The variable tarnished reputation (NREP) is measured by the number of financial statement restatements. This proxy is motivated by evidence that firms engaging in opportunistic behavior, particularly earnings manipulation and weak financial performance, exhibit higher restatement frequencies (
Ali and Hirshleifer 2017;
Martins and Ventura Júnior 2020;
Javakhadze et al. 2025). Moreover, prior studies widely employ restatements as an indicator of corporate misconduct (
Ali and Hirshleifer 2017), thereby supporting the use of NREP in the robustness analysis. Accordingly, a positive relationship between NREP and AIV is expected in the main model.
Media attention (MEDIA) is proxied by the natural logarithm of total assets, reflecting the premise that larger firms receive greater scrutiny from the media and financial analysts (
Hodgson et al. 2020). Consistent with this view, recent empirical studies also adopt firm size as a proxy for media coverage intensity (
Asante-Appiah and Lambert 2022). The literature further suggests that smaller firms are more prone to insider trading and earnings management practices (
Ali and Hirshleifer 2017;
Borochin et al. 2019). In the Brazilian context, compliance with laws and corporate regulations is often strengthened by pressure from society, capital markets, and the media, which increases firm visibility and perceived relevance (
Ventura et al. 2024). Consequently, heightened public and market scrutiny is expected to act as a deterrent to managerial opportunism.
Volatility is included in the model because it captures financial market uncertainty and directly influences investors’ decision-making. As a standard measure of risk, volatility reflects the variability of security prices over time (
Bhowmik and Wang 2020). Higher volatility implies greater short-term uncertainty and risk exposure. Accordingly, volatility is employed as a proxy for Leaked Information (IVAZ), and its calculation follows Equation (8).
where
VOLATi,t represents the volatility of the closing price of corporation i’s stock,
Si,d is the natural logarithm of (
Pd/
Pd-1), where
d is 1…
n and
Pd is the closing price of the stock on day d.
S is the average of
Sd in the year, and
n is the number of quotation days in the year.
The risk of information leakage is associated with trading based on information that has not yet been publicly disclosed (
Kacperczyk and Pagnotta 2019). An increase in the number of individuals with access to such information, as well as the proximity of major corporate events, such as mergers and acquisitions, heightens the likelihood of information leakage. As a result, the market devotes greater scrutiny to these firms and demands higher expected returns to compensate for the associated legal and informational risks. In this context,
Kacperczyk and Pagnotta (
2019) argue that abnormal trading activity and elevated asset price volatility reflect the dissemination of private information into the market, which may subsequently facilitate illegal trades based on privileged information. Accordingly, Information Leaks (IVAZ) are expected to be positively associated with evidence of opportunistic insider trading.
The control variable capturing firm profitability (RENT) is measured as the product of asset turnover and net profit margin. This variable is included to control for effects related to financial performance. Given that managerial opportunism is generally negatively associated with accounting-based and performance-related measures, a negative relationship between profitability and firm misconduct is expected. The empirical results are presented and discussed in the subsequent section.
3.2. Data and Sample
To achieve the proposed objective, the study population and sample were defined. The population comprised all firms listed on the B3 stock exchange during the continuous period from 2010 to 2021, encompassing a total of 12 years. This period was selected due to the adoption of new accounting standards in 2009 and because, from 2010 onward, firms were required to disclose information in their Reference Reports.
Regarding sample selection, firms that conducted an initial public offering (IPO) at the end of 2021 were excluded, as they did not have sufficient information available for analysis, given that data disclosure extends until April of the subsequent year and the sample includes observations only up to 2021. In addition, firms that did not report daily stock returns were excluded, as these data are essential for calculating the daily residual used in constructing the Abnormal Idiosyncratic Volatility (AIV) measure.
For the computation of AIV, firms were required to have daily return data starting in 2009. As the first business day of the sample period is 4 January 2010, the estimation regressions were conducted using data from 5 January 2009 to 4 January 2010. After applying all exclusion criteria, the final sample consisted of 237 firms, as reported in
Table 2.
This study analyzes the period from 2010 to 2021, comprising a total of 2175 observations. It should be noted that some firms are not observed in all years, as they began trading on the stock exchange after 2010 or because of data unavailability during the study period. Consequently, the analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset. Nevertheless, examining a twelve-year period enhances the reliability and robustness of the empirical results.
Accounting data were obtained from the Economatica
® and Refinitiv databases. Corporate governance information was collected from the Comdinheiro database, while data on ownership structure were retrieved from the
Fundamentus (
2023) to construct the non-family firm variable. Daily data for the three factors of the
Fama and French (
1993) model, MKT, SMB, and HML, were obtained from NEFIN (Brazilian Center for Research in Financial Economics, University of São Paulo). Information used to calculate abnormal idiosyncratic volatility was collected from the website of the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission, the federal agency responsible for regulating, supervising, and fostering the development of the Brazilian capital market. Specifically, the following disclosure events were considered:
- (a)
date and time of publication of the quarterly financial statements;
- (b)
date and time of publication of the annual financial statements; and
- (c)
date and time of publication of material facts.
Material facts were selected based on the relevance of their content and their potential impact on firms’ stock prices, consistent with prior literature (
Meulbroek 1992;
Lei and Wang 2014;
Borochin et al. 2019;
Goergen et al. 2019). These events include: (i) mergers, spin-offs, and incorporations; (ii) partnership agreements; (iii) acquisition and/or discovery of natural resources for potential economic and financial exploitation; (iv) termination and/or prohibition of natural resource exploitation; (v) business plans or projections; (vi) judicial reorganization; and (vii) bankruptcy. Data processing and organization were performed using spreadsheets, while panel data regressions and specification tests were conducted using Stata 15.1.