4.1. Asynchronous Nature of Measures Introduced at the National Level: Implications for the Management of Corporate Social Responsibility
In 2020, the EEU member states introduced various restrictions at the national level, aimed at preventing the spread of new coronavirus infection, starting from termination of air travel to other countries and movement by other means of transport at the domestic level (with a few exceptions), closure of public catering, cultural, recreation, and trade enterprises until the complete termination of air travel to other countries, and the introduction of states of emergency. The analysis has shown the asynchronous nature of measures introduced by the EEU member states at the national level, which increase uncertainty and made the management of corporate social responsibility more complex.
Thus, in particular, while the state of emergency (with different timeframes) was introduced in some EEU member states, such a state was not introduced in other member states; however, similarly, the measures of partners to restrict the movements of people with air transport were asynchronous as well, despite the establishment of the EEU, and the objective of ensuring free movement of workers were asynchronous as well (
Table 1).
The measures taken by partner countries differed significantly in the field of monetary policy as well. If, for example, Armenia, Belarus, and Russia lowered the interest rates of their central (national) banks, then Kazakhstan, conversely, increased the interest rate by 2.75% (
Eurasian Economic Commission 2021a). Although these measures were not transferred to the supranational level, differences in their implementation have an impact on the conditions of business activity in the common market of the EEU and the competitive environment.
The range and nature of social benefits in the EEU member states also varied widely, which is rightly attributable to not only the financial possibilities of the states but also the strategy of the fight against the pandemic they chose. That said, the asynchronous nature of measures introduced at the discretion of the EEU member states in March–April 2020 has started having an impact on the main objectives of the establishment of the union. By referring, inter alia, to Article 29 of the Treaty on the EEU, bans were introduced on export at the national level, in particular, to the EEU member states, as well as personal protective equipment (medical face masks, facepiece respirators, etc.) that are necessary to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and food commodities (
Table 2 and
Table 3).
Some authors point out that the issue of compliance of restrictive measures, imposed by the countries during the pandemic, with the standards of the WTO, is still highly topical; however, this issue is not the subject of this research. Due to imposed restrictions, it has been found that the volumes of exports of buckwheat, panic grass, and other cereals from Russia to the EEU member states throughout January–October 2020 decreased by 55% in physical terms (by 16% in value terms) (decreased by 254.4 thousand US dollars or by 4764 t). In particular, this decreased by 98.5% in physical terms to the Republic of Belarus (decreased by 4 thousand tons or by 577 thousand US dollars) and by 9.8 times to the Kyrgyz Republic. Similarly, the volume of exports of rice from Russia to the EEU member states decreased by 55% in physical terms (by 47.5% in value terms) for the above period (decreased by 14.8 thousand tons or by 6.94 million US dollars) (
Eurasian Economic Commission 2021c).
Subsequently, as referred to in the agreements of heads of the EEU member states reached on 14 April 2020, at the session of the Higher Eurasian Economic Council, when the need was noted to preserve free circulation of goods in the internal market of the EEU, bans such concerning the EEU member states were lifted.
Therefore, heads of the EEU member states, even in such a situation, confirmed the need for free circulation of goods in the common market of the EEU, in particular, considering the need for mutual assistance in the form of deliveries of such commodities in the current situation, and canceled these bans for one another, which is also a precedent, and confirms that these powers are no longer national.
The EEU member states did not only subsequently lifted bans on the free circulation of even such essential commodities as personal protective equipment, within the internal market, but started interacting through chief sanitary officers and assisting one another by sharing healthcare personnel, medicines, and personal protective equipment on a free-of-charge basis. It is rightly pointed out that (
Slutkiy and Khudorenko 2020) under such conditions it is necessary to unite efforts of all the EEU member states and develop cooperation in general, for which reason the action strategy of the EEU member states during the pandemic should be directed from the destruction caused by the virus to the creation in the form of a joint fight. At the same time, this bilateral interaction can be justified by bilateral arrangements as well as humanitarian interstate agreements within the CIS, not the EEU.
Experience of restrictions that were introduced at the national level has shown that:
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On the one hand, when the prompt response is required, the EEU member states take national measures to the prejudice of integration goals and interstate agreements, which can be attributable to lengthy decision-making procedures in the EEC;
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On the other hand, such measures negatively impact mutual trade between the EEU member states.
From the perspective of the management of corporate social responsibility, this means the need for exhibiting the increased management flexibility.
4.2. Measures That Were Taken at the Supranational Level: Implications for the Management of Corporate Social Responsibility
The EEC took several measures aimed at promptly responding to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and stabilizing the economic climate within the scope of available powers. However, such measures were only taken after the introduction of similar measures at the national level.
Thus, in particular, from 16 March till 30 September 2020, such commodities as personal protective equipment, diagnostic agents, different medical equipment, etc., were exempted from import customs duties; a ban was introduced on the export of similar goods necessary for the fight against the pandemic, from the EEU member States since 5 April (while at the national level—in February–March,
Table 3) till 30 September 2020. Besides, several other measures were taken that were aimed, in particular, at the interaction of heads of the EEU member states.
From 10 April till 30 June 2020, a ban on the export of the following types of products from the customs territory of the EEU was introduced: onion, garlic, turnip, rye, rice (except rice that originates from the Republic of Kazakhstan), buckwheat, sunflower seeds, etc. The analysis showed that the ban was introduced in an expedited manner without any adequate analysis of the situation in the markets of each product, without consideration and coordination with branch associations in the EEU member states. Due to the imposed embargo, the revenue of the EEU member states, according to certain estimates, could decrease by more than 500 million US dollars (year-over-year). Thus, for example, according to expert estimates, Russia is the manufacturer of almost 40% of the global volume of buckwheat. As for rice, it was reported by early May 2020 that the remainder of rice expressed in terms of paddy rice in Russia was 178 thousand tons, which is 33 thousand tons (23.6%) more than for the same period of the previous year, so it is sufficient to meet the demand not only in the Russian market but also in the market of the EEU member states. At the same time, the fact that an exception was made for the Kazakhstani rice allowed for the conclusion of the overproduction of this commodity for export to third countries.
Therefore, the analysis showed that certain solutions were taken at the supranational level without regard to the real-world situation in the market and the prejudice of individual manufacturers from the EEU member states. Furthermore, as can be seen from the analysis of adopted legislative acts within the EEU that are aimed at fighting the spread of a new coronavirus infection and mitigating the implications of introduced restrictions by supranational bodies (The Board and the Council of the EEC, the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, and the Higher Eurasian Economic Council), the powers for taking substantial consistent enforcement actions are significantly limited to prevent asynchronous measures at the national level and reduce the impact on the main objectives of the union, and the bodies of the union mostly adopted legislative acts that contained recommendations or plans for the interaction with the introduction of measures at the national level (the provision was made for the introduction of such measures as “information sharing”, “information layout”, “development of recommendations”, “asking for the cooperation”, “advising”, etc.)
Thus, for example, the question of lifting a ban from air travel between the EEU member states is beyond the scope of powers of the EEC, although it directly affects the free movement of the workforce. In the first months of the spread of the pandemic, accumulation of cargo transport, including those that convey perishable agricultural products, could be observed on the boundaries between the EEU member states; however, the solution to these issues is not directly attributed to the exclusive competence of the EEU. Although the grounds of the EEU member states for the adoption of independent sanitation-and-epidemiological measures due to a different situation with the number of infected people across countries and different levels of support of the economies are explainable, certain issues related to the provision of free movement of goods could be jointly solved with due account for the EEU objectives.
4.3. The Impact of Imposed Restrictions on Foreign Trade and Mutual Trade Risks, as Well as on Industrial Output through the Prism of the Management of Corporate Social Responsibility
According to the
Eurasian Economic Commission (
2021c), for the first six months of 2020, the volume of mutual trade in goods decreased by 14.1% (85.9% year-on-year)—to 24.5 billion US dollars: the biggest drop in the turnover of commodities in the EEU was recorded in sales of crude oil (−69%), sales of lorries (−55%) and rail wagons (−52%); the volume of trade in ferrous metals decreased by 28%, the volume of trade in passenger cars decreased by 24%, and the volume of trade in oil products decreased by 7.2%. If the decrease in prices of oil and oil products can be attributable to a significant decrease in oil prices in 2020, then a decrease in the volume of exports of industrial articles is attributable to imposed restrictions on the activity of particular enterprises.
In general, at the end of 2020, the volume of mutual trade in goods amounted to USD 55.1 billion, or 89.3% to the level of 2019, which can also be explained by a decrease in average prices for goods of the single market by 9% (
Eurasian Economic Commission 2021d).
At the same time, according to estimates of the
Eurasian Economic Commission (
2021e), concerning food commodities, the volume of mutual trade increased for the first six months of 2020 by 2.5%, to 4.1 billion US dollars, year-on-year, the volume of sales of non-food agricultural products increased by 13.0% at once, to 0.32 billion US dollars. In particular, the volume of trade in soybean products increased by 8.4 times, the volume of trade in sugar increased by 26.2%, while the volume of trade in cheese and cottage cheese increased by 10.2%. This is attributable to the increased demand for consumer products due to self-isolation measures.
According to the
Eurasian Economic Commission (
2021f), in 2020, with a general decrease in the volume of mutual trade in goods between the EAEU states, mutual trade in food products and agricultural raw materials by the end of 2020 increased by 2.9%.
We considered the pattern of changes in mutual trade between the EEU member States in 2020 by quarters (
Figure 1).
The figure shows that in the second quarter of this year, there was a drastic decrease in trade in goods compared to the previous quarter, the greatest decrease that was ever registered, by 17–20% greater compared to the previous period: Armenia by 31.5%, Belarus by 16.4%, Kazakhstan by 25.9%, the Kyrgyz Republic by 19.5%, and Russia by 20.6%. Much attention is paid to broken supply chains, as well as issues related to the distribution of foodstuffs and medical goods. Disrupted supply chains also served as a reminder of the fact to what extent the countries are dependent on trade, and especially how important China is as the supplier of resources to the rest of the world.
The global chains of creation of value were the channel for the transmission of COVID-19 implications for world trade. Measures that were taken by China in January (temporary closure of borders of Hubei province and national boundaries), meant that the exports of resources for such sectors as the motor industry, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and production of medical goods, were suspended. In March 2020, China gradually revived its economy and took steps to normalize exports. However, the initial shock from the volume of supply in trade was gradually exacerbated by the shock from the volume of demand—the result of measures taken to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and then in North America and the rest of the world
The structure and dynamic pattern of international trade based on imports and exports by the EEU member states both individually and across the integration association are presented in
Table 4 and
Table 5.
As can be seen from
Table 4, in 2017 and 2018, there was an increase in the volume of exports in the EEU member states by 24.90% and 24.98%, respectively. In 2019, however, there was a decrease in the volume of exports by 5.50%, which was further aggravated under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to 19.37% in 2020. In 2017–2019, the volume of imports in the EEU member states grew by 23.41%, 6.68%, and 4% respectively, but in 2020 there was a decrease in the volume of imports by 6.29%.
As can be seen from
Table 5, the volume of exports increased by 10.23%; however, it decreased by 3.18% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 6.87% in the European Union (EU 28). The volume of imports decreased by 41.82% in 2018, which significantly exceeded its decrease in 2020 (7.21%). In the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member states, the volume of exports decreased by 0.67% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 12.44%. The volume of imports in 2019 decreased by 1.74%, while in 2020 it decreased by 7.99%.
Within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the volume of exports decreased by 1.94% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 4.60%. The volume of imports in 2019 decreased by 2.91%, while in 2020 it decreased by 6.08%. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the volume of exports decreased by 3.57% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 17.97%. The volume of imports increased by 5.60% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 7.66%. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the volume of exports decreased by 2.28% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 1.97%. The volume of imports decreased by 3.17% in 2019, while in 2020 it decreased by 3.30%.
Hence, the change in the volume of international trade occurred in the EEU member states in percentage terms in 2020 in the age of the COVID-19 pandemic and crisis just as in other economic unions. The decrease in exports turned out to be more significant than the decrease in imports, but the trend of a decrease in the volume of international trade in the EEU member states, just as in the majority of other economic unions considered above, was caused by foreign economic policy launched as early as in 2019 or before that (for example, in 2018 in EU 28) rather than by the COVID-19 pandemic and crisis.
The structure of foreign trade in the EEU member states for January–June 2021 is shown in
Figure 2 and
Figure 3.
As can be seen from
Figure 2, the structure of foreign trade in the EEU in 2021 in terms of countries is dominated by:
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APEC, occupying 59.3% in the structure of exports and 61.7% in the structure of imports;
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EU 28, occupying 58.5% in the structure of exports and 33.3% in the structure of imports;
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CIS (without the EEU member states), occupying 11.9% in the structure of exports and 5.3% in the structure of imports.
As can be seen from
Figure 3, the structure of foreign trade in the EEU in 2021 in terms of goods is dominated by:
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Metals and metal products, occupying 10.8% in the structure of exports and 6.1% in the structure of imports;
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Textiles, soft goods, and footwear, occupying 0.3% in the structure of exports and 6.1% in the structure of imports;
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Wood and pulp and paper products, occupying 3.5% in the structure of exports and 1.4% in the structure of imports;
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Food products and agricultural raw materials, occupying 6.8% in the structure of exports and 11.1% in the structure of imports.
To estimate the magnitude of COVID-19 in the EEU member states, we considered the change in GDP (economic growth rate) in 2019–2021 (
Figure 4).
As can be seen from
Figure 4, the evolution of the GDP of the EEU member states during the pandemic is attributed to the economic recession from 0.949% in Belarus to 8.617% in the Kyrgyz Republic. We shall consider changes in foreign trade between the EEU member States in January–October 2020 (
Table 6).
As can be seen from
Table 6, the EEU member states did not differ significantly in terms of the change in the volume of merchandise turnover (within 6.7 percentage points), while they differed significantly in terms of the change in the volume of exports (within 35.5 percentage points). In Russia, it decreased by 23.2%, in Belarus by 22%, in Kazakhstan by 19.3%. Concurrently, Kyrgyzstan increased its volume of exports by 13.5%, while in Armenia it remained almost unchanged (−2%). A considerable decrease in the volume of exports in Russia and Kazakhstan is mainly attributable to declining oil prices, while the decrease in the volume of exports in Belarus is attributable to the absence of oil deliveries from the major Russian oil companies in the first quarter for the processing in the territory of Belarus and the export of Belorussian oil products to third countries, which resulted in a drastic decrease in the volume of exports of oil products early in the year. In these circumstances, Kyrgyzstan, despite restrictions, managed to increase the volume of exports of live cattle and agricultural products.
As has been rightly pointed out, in the EEU member states for the first two quarters of the previous year despite the pandemic, there has been growth in agriculture (peasants did not follow self-isolation measures and held the sowing campaign), the pharmaceutical industry, the manufacture of pharmaceutical drugs, and the medical industry (in the Kyrgyz Republic—140%, in Russia—16%), the production of paper and chemicals, and the production of foodstuffs (an increase of 5%).
According to the
Eurasian Economic Commission (
2021c) at the end of 2020, it is possible to note the results on the growth of mutual trade in the EAEU in certain categories of goods, which contributed to the pandemic, for example, the export from Russia to the EAEU countries of devices and devices (in physical terms) used in medicine increased: to Armenia by 2.6 times, to Belarus by 10%, to Kazakhstan by 2.4 times; medicines—by 3.1 times to Armenia, by a quarter—to Belarus, by 18% to Kazakhstan. Positive from the point of view of integration can be considered the fact that by the end of 2020, the share of mutual trade in the total volume of the EAEU foreign trade increased to 14.9% (an increase of 0.5 p.p. in 2020), which shows the advantages of the common market over traditional trade relations.
In addition to the impact on trade in goods, coronavirus restrictions, as anticipated, mainly affected trade in services. According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, there was a very considerable decrease in the volume of mutual trade in goods and services between the countries (
Figure 5). The greatest decrease could be observed in Armenia, 38.9%—decrease in the volume of exports, 40.8%—decrease in the volume of imports, then in Kazakhstan:—25.5% and 21.2% respectively, in Russia—21.3% and 27.3% respectively. The smallest decrease could be observed in Belarus.
To analyze the pattern of changes in the trade of services, taking into account the scarcity of data for all EEU member States, we considered changes in the volume of trade in services in Russia by sectors in Q1 and Q2 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 (
Table 7).
As can be seen from
Table 7 and as is quite predictable against the background of restrictions on movement by air and road, the biggest negative deviations can be observed in the business travel sector/tourism −56.2%—exports and −59.2%—imports, transport—20.9% and −15.9% respectively. Further, there was a decrease in the volume of exports in the sector of maintenance and repair services.
It appears that there were interesting changes in the field of construction services, where the volume of exports decreased, and the volume of imports decreased by 39%. Such changes may be due to the drop in rates of national currencies against the US dollar.
One aspect that receives less attention is how current restrictions on travel affected the trade, making it difficult for business partners in different countries to meet face-to-face. Although most employees were able to switch to work from home, and companies maintain business contacts online, empirical evidence points to the fact that face-to-face contacts are important for the facilitation of trade (
Anisimov 2020;
Malysheva 2020).
The output of industry in the EEU member states decreased by almost 6% in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of the previous year, a greater decrease could be observed in the second quarter of 2020. This was the largest decrease in the volume of world production of the manufacturing sector since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, while the output of industry in the first quarter of 2009 decreased by 14%. The impact of COVID-19 on various sectors of industry was non-uniform. Thus, the production of essential commodities and issue articles, such as foodstuffs or pharmaceuticals, was affected to a smaller degree than the production in other sectors, which is attributable to the increased demand on the part of consumers against self-isolation measures.
In the second quarter of 2020, the production of essential pharmaceuticals consistently showed moderate growth as well. In all other sectors, amid imposed restrictions on the operation of enterprises, there was a considerable decrease in production, primarily of motor cars, machinery, equipment, and clothing. However, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, the EEU member states (Russia, Kazakhstan) have already started to show positive growth in some sectors. At the same time, preliminary data for the third quarter of 2020 show that, despite some revival compared to the second quarter, the year-over-year increase in the volume of trade between the EEU member states will remain negative.
Imposed restrictions had a significant impact on the freedom of movement between the EEU member states in general, and the workforce as one of the main objectives of establishing the EEU, in particular. According to information from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration for August 2019, 750 thousand citizens of Kyrgyzstan were employed in Russia. FSB is reporting that the citizens of Kyrgyzstan annually transfer 2.3 billion US dollars to their homeland, while 105 thousand Kazakhs are employed in Russia.
According to the Main Directorate for Migration of the Russian Federation Ministry of the Interior, for the first quarter of 2020, the number of migrants from the countries of Central Asia who entered Russia with various goals was 1,060,401 people, most of them being labor migrants. Furthermore, imposed restrictions had a significant impact on migrants with such goals as “study”, “private journeys”, “and tourism”. More than half of responding labor migrants (65%) in Russia due to restrictions dictated by the COVID-19 pandemic lost their jobs, 20% told that they are employed by the same employer, about 4% of respondents found an extra job, and approximately one-third of migrants (34%) wanted to go home, but could not do it due to border closure. It was also pointed out that due to the pandemic and border closure, the volumes of money transfers of individuals between the EEU member states decreased significantly for the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, e.g., their volume between Russia and the EEU member states decreased by more than 20%; par to the course, this figure will significantly increase at year-end, which had a definite negative impact on the social status of workers and their families.