# The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

## 2. Literature Review

## 3. Theoretical and Modeling Framework

#### 3.1. Real Exchange Rate Equation

#### 3.2. Movements of Oil Prices and REERs: Choosing the Period of Analysis

## 4. Data and Econometric Method

#### 4.1. Data

#### 4.2. Econometric Method

#### 4.2.1. Unit Root Test

_{1}from the regression:

#### 4.2.2. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

_{0}: ${\theta}_{1}={\theta}_{2}={\theta}_{3}=0$; while an alternative hypothesis of cointegration is: H

_{1}: ${\theta}_{1}\ne {\theta}_{2}\ne {\theta}_{3}\ne 0$.

#### 4.2.3. Small Sample Bias Correction in the ARDL Approach

## 5. Empirical Estimations and Discussion

#### 5.1. Robustness Check

## 6. Concluding Remarks

## Acknowledgment

## Author Contributions

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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1 | Equation (3) is a transformed version of the unit root test equation (random walk with drift), where $p$ is equal to ${b}_{1}$ + 1. $p$ is an auto-regressive coefficient. If it is unity (or close to unity), it means that a given series has a unit root. By way of contrast, if it is zero (or close to zero), it means that the process does not have a unit root process. |

2 | The test results can be obtained from the authors upon request. |

**Figure 3.**Time profile of log levels and growth rates of the real oil prices. (

**A**) Time profile of the logarithmic levels. (

**B**) Time profile of the growth rates.

Study | Period | Country/Region | Methodology | Oil Price Coefficient | Productivity Coefficient |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Kuralbayeva et al. (2001) | 1994M1–2000M4 | KZ | VECM | 0.23 | 0.36 |

De Broeck and Slok (2001) | 1993–1998 | Panel of countries including AZ, KZ and RU | PMG | −0.55 * (for the group where AZ, KZ and RU were included) | 0.57 (for the group where AZ, KZ and RU were included) |

Spatafora and Stavrev (2003) | 1995Q1–2002Q3 | RU | ECM | 0.31 | 1.3 |

Egert (2005) | 1991M1–2003M11 | Country group (RU included) | DOLS, ARDL. Panel DOLS, MGE | −0.18 to −0.06 (for panel) | −1.1 (for RU) |

Sosunov and Zamulin (2006) | 1998–2005 | RU | CGE | 0.25 | Not used |

Habib and Kalamova (2007) | 1995Q1–2006Q2 (for RU) 1980Q1–2006Q2 (for other countries) | RU, Norway and Saudi Arabia | VECM | 0.50 | 0.82 |

Oomes and Kalcheva (2007) | 1995M1–2005M12 | RU | VECM | 0.50 and 0.58 | 1.08 and 0.90 |

Egert and Leonard (2007) | 1996–2005 | KZ | OLS, DOLS, ARDL | Not reported | Not reported |

Jahan-Parvar and Mohammadi (2008) | 1970–2007 | 14 oil exporters, including RU | ARDL | 1.12 (for RU) | Not used |

Egert (2009) | 1999–2006 | CIS (including AZ, KZ and RU) | Panel | Not reported | Not used |

Benedictow et al. (2010) | 1995Q1–2008Q1 | RU | OLS | 0.19 | Not used |

Hasanov (2010) | 2000Q4–2007Q4 | AZ | ARDL | 0.75 | 2.00 |

Babayev (2010) | 1999–2009 | AZ | VAR | Not reported | Not reported |

Ito (2010) | 1994Q1–2009Q3 | RU | VECM | 0.17 | Not used |

Basher et al. (2012) | 1988M1–2008M12 | Group of countries, including KZ | SVAR | Not reported | Not reported |

Mironov and Petronevich (2015) | 2002M5–2013M4 | RU | VECM | 0.2 | Not reported |

Kose and Baimaganbetov (2015) | 2000M1–2013M12 | KZ | SVAR | Not reported | Not reported |

Bouoiyour et al. (2015) | 1995Q1–2009Q3 | RU | ARDL, Wavelet and FDA | Not reported | Not reported |

Kaplan and Aktash (2016) | 1995–2014 | Five countries (including RU) | CCEMG, CCEP | −0.16 | Not used |

Aleksandrova (2016) | 2012–2016 | Caucasus and Central Asia, including AZ and KZ | Descriptive analyses | Not reported | Not reported |

Blokhina et al. (2016) | 2000M1–2016M1 | RU | OLS | 0.1 | Not used |

Variable | At the Level | At the First Difference | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

ADF | ZA | ADF | ZA | |||||

k | Actual Value | k | Actual Value | k | Actual Value | k | Actual Value | |

roilp | 1 | −3.91 ** | 1 | −4.60 | 1 | −5.89 *** | 1 | −8.01 *** |

Panel A: Azerbaijan | ||||||||

reer_az | 0 | −2.08 | 0 | −3.67 | 0 | −6.77 *** | 0 | −7.33 *** |

prod_az | 0 | −2.34 | 0 | −3.89 | 0 | −5.88 *** | 2 | −8.31 *** |

Panel B: Kazakhstan | ||||||||

reer_kz | 0 | −3.37 * | 3 | −2.88 | 1 | −5.97 *** | 4 | −8.53 *** |

prod_kz | 1 | −4.40 *** | 1 | −4.81 | 1 | −6.25 *** | 2 | −7.90 *** |

Panel C: Russia | ||||||||

reer_ru | 0 | −2.62 | 0 | −1.81 | 1 | −6.45 *** | 1 | −6.55 *** |

prod_ru | 0 | −3.44 * | 0 | −1.66 | 0 | −6.89 *** | 2 | −7.24 *** |

${\mathit{F}}_{\mathit{S}\mathit{a}\mathit{m}\mathit{p}\mathit{l}\mathit{e}}$ | Panel A: Azerbaijan | Panel B: Kazakhstan | Panel C: Russia | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

${\mathit{F}}_{\left(4,30\right)}^{\mathit{W}}$ = 6.412 | ${\mathit{F}}_{\left(4,30\right)}^{\mathit{W}}$= 13.804 | ${\mathit{F}}_{\left(4,29\right)}^{\mathit{W}}$ = 4.907 | |||

Lower and Upper Bound Critical Values in the Case of Two Lagged Level Regressors, Restricted Intercept and No Trend: | |||||

Narayan (2005) ^{*} | Pesaran et al. (2001) ^{**} | ||||

At the 1% significance level: | 4.770 | 5.855 | 4.99 | 5.85 | |

At the 5% significance level: | 3.435 | 4.260 | 3.88 | 4.61 | |

At the 10% significance level: | 2.835 | 3.585 | 3.38 | 4.02 |

Azerbaijan | Kazakhstan | Russia | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Panel A: Estimated Long-Run Coefficients | ||||||

Variables | ARDL | DOLS | ARDL | DOLS | ARDL | DOLS |

roilp | 0.264 ** (0.099) | 0.262 *** (0.044) | 0.276 *** (0.083) | 0.285 *** (0.072) | 0.560 *** (0.103) | 0.570 *** (0.119) |

prod | 0.581 *** (0.121) | 0.512 *** (0.052) | 0.237 (0.200) | 0.390 ** (0.149) | 1.150 ** (0.452) | 0.962 * (0.532) |

Estimated Long-Run Coefficients with nfa variable | ||||||

roilp | 0.458 *** (0.122) | 0.417 *** (0.080) | 0.266 ** (0.098) | 0.657 *** (0.142) | 0.240 *** (0.063) | 0.193 *** (0.067) |

prod | 0.621 *** (0.114) | 0.577 *** (0.056) | 0.223 (0.206) | 1.073 *** (0.242) | 0.399 * (0.207) | 0.277 (0.247) |

nfa | −0.124 * (0.069) | −0.149 (0.091) | 0.004 (0.022) | −0.128 (1.261) | 0.103 *** (0.022) | 0.121 *** (0.018) |

ECT | −0.50 *** | −0.63 *** | −0.33 *** | |||

Panel B: Residuals Diagnostics Tests Results | ||||||

${\chi}_{SC}^{2}\left(4\right)=1.982\left[0.134\right]$ | ${\chi}_{SC}^{2}\left(4\right)=0.925\left[0.462\right]$ | ${\chi}_{SC}^{2}\left(4\right)=1.008\left[0.419\right]$ | ||||

${\chi}_{HETR}^{2}\left(4\right)=0.848\left[0.617\right]$ | ${\chi}_{HETR}^{2}\left(1\right)=0.103\left[0.981\right]$ | ${\chi}_{HETR}^{2}\left(3\right)=0.6750\left[0.645\right]$ | ||||

$J{B}_{N}=0.656\left[0.721\right]$ | $J{B}_{N}=0.426\left[0.808\right]$ | $J{B}_{N}=1.146\left[0.564\right]$ | ||||

${F}_{FF}=1.011\left[0.322\right]$ | ${F}_{FF}=0.723\left[0.475\right]$ | ${F}_{FF}=0.955\left[0.346\right]$ |

*****indicate significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Estimation period: 2004Q1–2013Q4.

^{,}**^{,}***© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Hasanov, F.; Mikayilov, J.; Bulut, C.; Suleymanov, E.; Aliyev, F.
The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters. *Economies* **2017**, *5*, 13.
https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5020013

**AMA Style**

Hasanov F, Mikayilov J, Bulut C, Suleymanov E, Aliyev F.
The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters. *Economies*. 2017; 5(2):13.
https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5020013

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Hasanov, Fakhri, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Cihan Bulut, Elchin Suleymanov, and Fuzuli Aliyev.
2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters" *Economies* 5, no. 2: 13.
https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5020013