Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. The Literature Review
3. Methodology
3.1. Data
3.2. ARIMA/SARIMA Model
3.3. Data Transformation
3.4. Argumented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) Test
3.5. Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE)
3.6. Model Selection and Accuracy Measures
4. Results
4.1. Descriptive Statistics and Model Identification Processes
4.2. In- and Out-of-Sample Forecasting
4.3. Discussion of Results
5. Conclusions
6. Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Std. Deviation | Skewness | Kurtosis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
39,275,290 | 153,975,510 | 82,029,512 | 27,892,621 | 0.7 | −0.19 |
Dickey–Fuller | Lag Order | p-Value |
---|---|---|
−3.1304 | 5 | 0.1065 |
Dickey–Fuller | Lag Order | p-Value |
---|---|---|
−3.8468 | 4 | 0.01911 |
Model | AIC | BIC | RMSE |
---|---|---|---|
SARIMA (2,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift | −447.83 | −428.44 | 0.0311 |
SARIMA (2,1,2)(2,1,1)12 model without drift | −456.86 | −434.7 | 0.0297 |
SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,1,1)12 model without drift | −442.9 | −426.28 | 0.0320 |
SARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift | −438.19 | −421.57 | 0.0327 |
SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model without drift | −438.82 | −424.97 | 0.0328 |
SARIMA (1,1,2)(1,0,0)12 model with drift | −426.61 | −409.41 | 0.0412 |
SARIMA (2,1,2)(2,0,0)12 model with drift | −446.91 | −423.97 | 0.0369 |
Parameter | Coefficient/ Parameter Estimate | Standard Error (SE) | Test Statistic | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
−0.9425 | 0.1082 | −8.7117 | <0.0001 | |
−0.8197 | 0.0861 | −9.5151 | <0.0009 | |
−0.2534 | 0.1515 | −1.6730 | 0.0943 | |
−0.2884 | 0.1276 | −2.2599 | 0.0238 | |
0.5579 | 0.1628 | 3.4266 | 0.0006 | |
0.5015 | 0.1096 | 4.5771 | <0.0001 | |
−0.6343 | 0.1513 | −4.1917 | <0.0001 |
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Makoni, T.; Chikobvu, D. Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa. Economies 2023, 11, 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158
Makoni T, Chikobvu D. Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa. Economies. 2023; 11(6):158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158
Chicago/Turabian StyleMakoni, Tendai, and Delson Chikobvu. 2023. "Assessing and Forecasting the Long-Term Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Manufacturing Sales in South Africa" Economies 11, no. 6: 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060158