Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Overview of FDI Scenarios of Bangladesh
4. Data and Methodology
4.1. Data
4.2. Methodology
5. Results and Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Without Structural Break
Variables | ADF Test | PP Test | Order of Integration | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | Intercept and Trend | Intercept | Intercept and Trend | ||||||
Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | ||
LRGDPGR | −0.60 | −3.94 *** | −13.27 *** | −3.80 ** | −10.35 *** | −35.92 *** | −21.06 *** | −36.14 *** | I(0) |
LRFDI | −1.41 | −3.15 ** | −2.84 | −3.80 ** | −1.29 | −8.82 *** | −2.77 | −8.91 *** | I(1) |
LREX | −0.76 | −7.91 *** | −1.67 | −7.93 *** | −0.73 | −7.73 *** | −1.65 | −7.77 *** | I(1) |
Null Hypothesis: No Levels Relationship | ||
---|---|---|
F-Statistic | k | |
Model 1 [Dependent Variable: D(LRFDI)] | 5.928 | 2 |
Model 2 [Dependent Variable: D(LREX)] | 1.947 | 2 |
Critical value | ||
Significance | I(0) | I(1) |
10% | 2.63 | 3.35 |
5% | 3.1 | 3.87 |
1% | 4.13 | 5 |
Model 1 Dependent Variable: D(LRFDI) Selected Model: ARDL (1,0,0) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Variable | Coefficient | t-Statistic | Prob. |
ECT(−1) | −0.63 *** | −5.04 | 0.000 |
Model 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Variable | Coefficient | t-Statistic | Prob. |
LREX | 0.006 *** | 9.60 | 0.00 |
LRGDPGR | 0.002 | 0.125 | 0.90 |
C | 0.022 | 8.276 | 0.00 |
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Country | Author(s) | Study Period | Major Findings |
---|---|---|---|
Bangladesh | Islam (2022) | 1995–2020 | FDI in Bangladesh is positively related to the export performance of Bangladesh in the long run, while in the short run, the study found no relationship |
Bangladesh | Mitra (2015) | 1971–2013 | FDI has a positive impact on the export performance of Bangladesh |
Bangladesh | Adhikary (2012) | 1980–2009 | FDI has affected the exports of Bangladesh both in the long run as well as the short run |
Four South Asian countries (including Bangladesh) | Dash and Sharma (2010) | 1990–2007 | Two-way causality between FDI and exports for Bangladesh |
Variable | Description |
---|---|
RGDPGR | RGDPGR stands for Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (constant 2010 USD). In this study, the variable is used following Sunde (2017) and Dritsaki and Stiakakis (2014). |
RFDI | RFDI stands for Ratio of Real Foreign Direct Investment net inflows to Real Gross Domestic Product. In this study, the variable is used following Mohanty and Sethi (2021), Musti and Mallum (2020), Sunde (2017), Pegkas (2015), Belloumi (2014), Dritsaki and Stiakakis (2014), Kaur et al. (2013), Herzer et al. (2008), Lou (2007), and Borensztein et al. (1998). Data on FDI net inflows (current USD) have been converted to real values by dividing the current values by the GDP deflator (2010 = 1), using 2010 as the base year following Pegkas (2015). |
REX | REX stands for Ratio of Real Exports of goods and services to Real Gross Domestic Product. In this study, the variable is used following Mohanty and Sethi (2021), Musti and Mallum (2020), Sunde (2017), and Dritsaki and Stiakakis (2014). Exports of goods and services denote the value of all goods and services provided to the rest of the world (WDI 2021). |
Var. | Description | Unit | Obs. | Mean | Max. | Min. | Std. Dev. | Skewness | Kurt. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RGDPGR | Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate | Percentage | 48 | 4.45 | 9.59 | −13.97 | 3.49 | −3.53 | 18.74 |
RFDI | Ratio of Real Foreign Direct Investment net inflows to Real Gross Domestic Product | Percentage | 48 | 0.39 | 1.74 | −0.05 | 0.52 | 1.08 | 2.82 |
REX | Ratio of Real Exports of goods and services to Real Gross Domestic Product | Percentage | 48 | 7.87 | 20.57 | 2.28 | 6.35 | 0.90 | 2.07 |
Variables | ADF Test (Optimal Lag Length = 9) | PP Test (Optimal Lag Length = 6) | Order of Integration | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | Intercept and Trend | Intercept | Intercept and Trend | ||||||
Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | Level | 1st diff. | ||
LRGDPGR | −0.60 (0.858) | −3.94 *** (0.004) | −13.27 *** (0.00) | −3.80 ** (0.026) | −10.35 *** (0.00) | −35.92 *** (0.00) | −21.06 *** (0.00) | −36.14 *** (0.00) | I(0) |
LRFDI | −1.41 (0.567) | −3.15 ** (0.0305) | −2.84 (0.188) | −3.80 ** (0.026) | −1.29 (0.62) | −8.82 *** (0.00) | −2.77 (0.212) | −8.91 *** (0.00) | I(1) |
LREX | −0.76 (0.819) | −7.91 *** (0.000) | −1.67 (0.747) | −7.93 *** (0.000) | −0.73 (0.827) | −7.73 *** (0.00) | −1.65 (0.753) | −7.77 *** (0.00) | I(1) |
Variables | ZA Test | LP Test | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
t-Statistic | TB | t-Statistic | TB | |
LRGDPGR | −4.27 | 1981:01 | −4.76 | 1981:01; 2004:01 |
∆LRGDPGR | −20.95 *** | 2007:01 | −21.28 *** | 2004:01; 2010:01 |
LRFDI | −4.27 | 2003:01 | −5.22 | 1993:01; 2011:01 |
∆LRFDI | −9.39 *** | 2011:01 | −10.25 *** | 2002:01; 2011:01 |
LREX | −3.91 | 1980:01 | −7.16 | 1980:01; 2003:01 |
∆LREX | −10.21 *** | 2003:01 | −11.52 *** | 2003:01; 2010:01 |
Lag | LR | FPE | AIC | SC | HQ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | NA | 3.63 × 10−10 | −13.22374 | −13.09707 | −13.17794 |
1 | 136.5396 | 1.28 × 10−11 * | −16.56651 | −16.05984 * | −16.38331 * |
2 | 11.00056 | 1.46 × 10−11 | −16.44986 | −15.56320 | −16.12927 |
3 | 7.853699 | 1.80 × 10−11 | −16.26165 | −14.99499 | −15.80366 |
4 | 7.350597 | 2.24 × 10−11 | −16.08389 | −14.43723 | −15.48851 |
5 | 13.90314 | 2.10 × 10−11 | −16.21319 | −14.18653 | −15.48041 |
6 | 18.66090 * | 1.51 × 10−11 | −16.65180 * | −14.24515 | −15.78163 |
Hypothesized No. of Co-Integrating Equation (CE) | H0: | H1: | Eigenvalue | Trace Test | Maximum Eigenvalue Test | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5% Critical Value | Prob. | 5% Critical Value | Prob. | ||||||
None ** | r = 0 | r = 1 | 0.49259 | 36.940 | 29.797 | 0.006 | 26.459 | 21.131 | 0.008 |
At most 1 | r ≤ 1 | r = 2 | 0.21903 | 10.481 | 15.494 | 0.245 | 9.641 | 14.264 | 0.236 |
At most 2 | r ≤ 2 | r = 3 | 0.02130 | 0.839 | 3.841 | 0.359 | 0.839 | 3.841 | 0.359 |
Dependent Variable | Sources of Causation | Short-Run Relationship | Long-Run Relationship | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Short-Run | Long-Run | |||||
LRFDI | LREX | LRGDPGR | ECTt−1 | |||
LRFDI | - | 17.446 *** (0.0078) | 11.797 * (0.0666) | −0.972 *** (0.0007) | REX causes RFDI RGDPGR causes RFDI | Yes |
Diagnostic tests | Result | Decision | ||||
Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey test of heteroscedasticity | 19.838 (0.5315) | There is no heteroscedasticity in the model | ||||
Breusch–Godfrey serial correlation LM test | 4.658 (0.0974) | There is no serial correlation in the residuals in the model | ||||
Jarque–Bera test for normality | 1.821 (0.402) | Residuals are normally distributed |
With Considering Structural Breaks | Without Considering Structural Breaks | |
---|---|---|
Model | VECM | ARDL |
Major Findings | The empirical result of VECM for RFDI equation suggests the evidence of a long-run causality from REX and RGDPGR to RFDI and the evidence of a positive short-run causal relation from REX to RFDI as well as a positive short-run causal relation from RGDPGR to RFDI. The empirical result of VECM for REX equation indicates that there is no long-run causality from RFDI and RGDPGR to REX. In addition, there is no short-run causal relation from RFDI to REX and from RGDPGR to REX. | There is a long-run relationship among the selected variables for Model 1 [Dependent Variable: D(LRFDI)]. The error correction term (ECT) for Model 1 is negative and significant at the 1% level of significance. It suggests that there is a long-run relationship among RFDI, RGDPGR, and REX. It is also apparent that REX has a positive relationship with RFDI in the long-run. On the other hand, estimated results show that there is no long-run relationship among the selected variables for Model 2 [Dependent Variable: D (LREX)]. |
Source | see Table 8 | see Appendix A Table A2, Table A3 and Table A4 |
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Ahmed, S.F.; Mohsin, A.K.M.; Hossain, S.F.A. Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks. Economies 2023, 11, 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11030073
Ahmed SF, Mohsin AKM, Hossain SFA. Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks. Economies. 2023; 11(3):73. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11030073
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmed, Sayed Farrukh, A. K. M. Mohsin, and Syed Far Abid Hossain. 2023. "Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks" Economies 11, no. 3: 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11030073
APA StyleAhmed, S. F., Mohsin, A. K. M., & Hossain, S. F. A. (2023). Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks. Economies, 11(3), 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11030073