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Technologies 2018, 6(3), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies6030073

Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

1
Department of Industrial Engineering, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta 57126, Indonesia
2
Industrial Engineering and Techno Economy Research Group, Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta 57126, Indonesia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 5 May 2018 / Revised: 20 July 2018 / Accepted: 30 July 2018 / Published: 6 August 2018
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Abstract

LiFePhO4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, with their advantages compared to common current motorcycle batteries, are considered as an alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. The huge demand for motorcycles along with their batteries in Indonesia also make them an interesting product for business. To assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) indicators were conducted in this study. Calculations using Markov chain method show that lithium iron phosphate batteries tend to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also finds that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions: first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for lithium iron phosphate batteries, especially in Indonesia. View Full-Text
Keywords: battery; commercialization; Markov chain; new technology; techno-economic battery; commercialization; Markov chain; new technology; techno-economic
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Sutopo, W.; Kurniyati, I.; Zakaria, R. Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia. Technologies 2018, 6, 73.

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