Global Economy: New Risks and Leadership Problems
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Main Results
3.1. The Nature of Global Crises, Post Crisis Recession and Problems of Growth of Modern World Economy
3.2. Legal Basis of Global Economy Regulation
3.3. Risks and Threats for World Economy and Finance (2010–2019)
3.4. The Leader for the World Economy in 21st Century
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
- Post-crisis recession and many problems of modern global economy result from the global crisis, and are viewed as combinations, on the one hand, of failures of separate elements of a financial system (markets of financial assets, IMF), and, on the other hand, of transition to technologies 4.0 and common problems of the world economy (ecology, pure water, famine).
- The regulation of the world economy should be based on international law, agreements, and institutions as the compromise between the countries defending the sovereignty and economic security.
- The modern economy has faced new risks, the scale and depth of which are capable of causing a global crisis. The analysis has shown that risks of decreasing rates, delays of economic development of China, prompt growth of the state and corporate debts, loss of former sources of economic growth are posing a threat to the sustainable development of the world economy. New trends of deglobalization and dedollarization have deepened risks and initiated the rollback mechanism from the achievements of globalization, leading to trade, tariff, sanctions wars.
- Global crisis and post-crisis recession have accelerated the processes of de-globalization and de-dollarization and have raised the issue of changing the leader in the world economy. The comparative analysis of the USA and Chinese economies, including other groups of countries for the leadership potential (the size of the economy, quality of life, competitiveness, the stability of currency) has shown the leader absence solo. Therefore, the countries of the 21st century should no more seek the leadership of one country as a driver of the economy and capital market, but rather focus on developing and using SDR (with a basket from 15–20 currencies of G20) as a reserve currency.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Macroeconomic Indicators | USA | China | |
---|---|---|---|
(1) Markets | Forex USD/CHY, 12/06/2019 | 6.9340 | |
(2)GDP (3) Share of the sectors of economy in GNP, %, 2015 | GDP, constant prices, $ trillion | 18.91 | |
GDP, current prices, $ trillion | 19.390 | 12.238 | |
GNP per capita, $ thousand | 54,225.45 | 15,308.71 | |
Services | 76.7 | 43.1 | |
Industries | 21.1 | 46.8 | |
Agriculture | 1.2 | 10.1 | |
(4) Labour (5) Demographic indicators, 2015 | Unemployment rate, % | 3.60 | 3.67 |
Wages per hour/per year, $, | 23.3/41,696.93 | /11,892.27 | |
Labor productivity, growth, % | 3.40 | NA | |
The population share (at the age of 15 and older), % | 20 | 17 | |
(6) Prices | GDP deflator index | 111.33 | 656.41 |
Inflation rate, %, YoY | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
(7) Money | Central Bank interest rate decision, % | 2.50 | 4.35 |
Bank balance sheet, $ trillion | 17.22 | 0.466 | |
Loans to private sector, $ trillion | 2.3 | 0.3 | |
(8) Trade | Current Account, $ billion, Q1 | 134.88 | 58.60 |
Imports, CIF, $ trillion | 2.576 | 1.721 | |
Gold reserves, tones | 8133.50 | 1864.30 | |
Net capital flows, $ billion | −8.1 | −5.86 | |
(9) Government | Government budget value/GDP, % | −3.80 | −4.20 |
Government spending, $ trillion | 3.21 | 3.19 | |
(10) Business | Corp. profit, $ trillion | 2.00 | 0.26 |
Market cost of publicly traded companies, $ trillion | 17.14 | 3.408 | |
Competitiveness rank | 1 | 28 | |
(9) Consumer | Private sector credit, $ trillion | 9.76 | |
(11) Taxes | Corporate Tax rate, % | 21 | 25 |
Personal Income Tax Rate, % | 37 | 45 | |
Sales Tax rate (VAT), % | 0 | 16 | |
Social security rates for: Employees/Companies | 7.65/7.65 | 11/37 |
Macroeconomic Indicators | China | USA | |
---|---|---|---|
(1) GDP | GDP growth rate, YoY, % | 6.40 | 3.20 |
(2) Labour | Population, million | 1.419 819.622 | 328.950 |
(3) Prices | Core inflation rate, %, YoY | 1.7 | 2.0 |
(4) Money | Forex reserves, $ trillion | 3.1 | 0.127 |
(5) Trade | Balance of trade, $ billion | 41.66 | −50.8 |
FDI, $ billion | 54.6 | 50.9 | |
Retail sales, YoY, % | 7.2 | 3.1. | |
Exports, FOB, $ trillion | 2.1385 | 2.0685 | |
External Debt, $ trillion | 19.7 | 19.8 | |
The current balance of payments, $ billion, including % of GDP | 586 | −134.4 (Q1) | |
0.4 | −2.4 | ||
Total investments/GDP, % | 54.2 | 12.4 | |
(6) Government | State debt, $ trillion | NA | 22.02 |
State debt/GDP, % | 47.6 | 105.4 | |
Government revenues, $ billion | 250.33 | 232.06 | |
Government budget deficit, $ billion | −10.43 | −207.77 | |
Foreign reserves, $ trillion | 3.1 | 0.127 | |
(7) Business | Industrial production, YoY, % | 5.4 | 0.9 |
(8) Consumer | Bank lending rate, % | 4.35 | 5.5 |
Personal saving, % | 37.10 | 6.20 |
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Shavshukov, V.M.; Zhuravleva, N.A. Global Economy: New Risks and Leadership Problems. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2020, 8, 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs8010007
Shavshukov VM, Zhuravleva NA. Global Economy: New Risks and Leadership Problems. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2020; 8(1):7. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs8010007
Chicago/Turabian StyleShavshukov, Viacheslav M., and Natalia A. Zhuravleva. 2020. "Global Economy: New Risks and Leadership Problems" International Journal of Financial Studies 8, no. 1: 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs8010007