Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Study Area and Data
2.2. Prediction of Future Climate Change
- is the value of temperature (or precipitation) being predicted for location ;
- N is the number of measured sample points around the prediction location that will be employed in the prediction;
- is the weight assigned to measured point i. The weight will decrease when distances increase.
- is the the observed value at the location .
2.3. Simulation of Soil Erosion
- Sed is the sediment yield in a given day (metric tons);
- Qsurf is the surface runoff volume (mm/ha);
- qpeak is the peak surface runoff rate (m3/s);
- areahru is the area of the HRU (ha);
- K is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) soil erodibility factor, which is available from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) data;
- C is the USLE cover and management factor and can be derived from land cover data;
- P is the USLE support practice factor, which is a field specific value;
- CFRG is the coarse fragment factor.
- LS is the topographic factor. It is a function of the land slope length (Lhill), the angle of slope (αhill), and the exponential term m in the equation below:
- αtc is the fraction of daily rainfall that occurs during the time of concentration (time of concentration is the amount of time from the beginning of a rainfall event until the entire sub-basin area is contributing to flow at the sub-basin outlet) ;
- Qsurf is the surface runoff (mm H2O);
- Area is the area of sub-basin (km2);
- 3.6 is a unit conversion factor;
- tconc is the time of concentration for the sub-basin (h).
2.4. SWAT Model Calibration and Validation
- and are the observed and simulated values of the variable X, respectively;
- and are the mean of the observed values and the mean of the simulated values of the variable X, respectively;
- n is the total number of observations.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Projected Warming
3.2. Projected Change in Precipitation
3.3. Spatial Pattern of Changes in Erosion Rate
3.4. Temporal Pattern of Changes in Erosion Rate
Conflicts of Interest
- Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; Hanson, C.E. Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007. [Google Scholar]
- Nearing, M.A. Potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the United States with climate change during the 21st century. J. Soil Water Conserv. 2001, 56, 229–232. [Google Scholar]
- Zhang, G.H.; Nearing, M.A.; Liu, B.Y. Potential effects of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Yellow River basin of China. Trans. ASAE 2005, 48, 511–517. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pruski, F.F.; Nearing, M.A. Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations. Water Resour. Res. 2002, 38, 1298. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, X.C.; Nearing, M.A. Impact of climate change on soil erosion, runoff, and wheat productivity in Central Oklahoma. Catena 2005, 61, 185–195. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wigley, T.M.L. MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3: User Manual Version 2; National Center for Atmospheric Research: Boulder, CO, USA, 2008; p. 81. [Google Scholar]
- Shepard, D. A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data. In Proceedings of the 1968 ACM National Conference, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 27–29 August 1968.
- Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change (IMHEN). Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Adaptation Measure: Final Report; IMHEN: Hanoi, Vietnam, 2010; p. 120. [Google Scholar]
- Burrough, P.A. Principles of Geographical Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment; Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK, 1986; p. 194. [Google Scholar]
- Watson, D.F. Contouring: AGuide to the Analysis and Display of Spatial Data; Pergamon Press: Oxford, UK, 1992. [Google Scholar]
- Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). ArcGIS 9, Using Arc Geostatistical Analyst; Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc.: Redlands, CA, USA, 2003; p. 300. [Google Scholar]
- Pham, Q.G. Effectiveness of different spatial interpolators in estimating heavy metal contamination in shallow groundwater: A case study of arsenic contamination in Hanoi, Vietnam. Environ. Nat. Resour. J. 2011, 9, 31–37. [Google Scholar]
- Liu, J.; Williams, J.R.; Wang, X.; Yang, H. Using MODAWEC to generate daily weather data for the EPIC model. Environ. Model. Softw. 2009, 24, 655–664. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pham, Q.G.; Toshiki, K.; Sakata, M.; Kunikane, S.; Tran, Q.V. Modelling Climate Change Impacts on the Seasonality of Water Resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia. Sci. World J. 2014. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Arnold, J.G.; Srinivasan, R.; Muttiah, R.S. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model development. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 1998, 34, 73–89. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Williams, J.; Arnold, J.G. A System of Hydrologic Models. U.S.Geological Survey. Water Resources Investigations Report; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 1993; pp. 93–4018.
- Neitsch, S.L.; Arnold, J.G.; Kiniry, J.R.; Williams, J.R. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation; Version 2009; Blackland Research Center: Temple, TX, Texas, USA, 2011; p. 618. [Google Scholar]
- Williams, J.R. Sediment-yield prediction with universal equation using runoff energy factor. Present and Prospective Technology for Predicting Sediment Yield and Sources. In Proceedings of the Sediment Yield Workshop, USDA Sedimentation Lab., Oxford, MS, USA, 28–30 November 1972; pp. 244–252.
- Mukudan, R.; Soni, M.P.; Elliot, M.S.; Donald, C.P.; Aavudai, A.; Mark, S.Z.; Adão, H.M.; David, G.L.; Tammo, S.S. Suspended sediment source areas and future climate impact on soil erosion and sediment yield in a New York City water supply watershed, USA. Geomorphology 2013, 183, 110–119. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Donigian, S. Watershed model calibration and validation: The HSPF experience. In Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation, St. George, UT, USA, 10–12 October 2001.
- Arnold, J.G.; Moriasi, D.N.; Gassman, P.W.; Abbaspour, K.C.; White, M.J.; Srinivasan, R.; Santhi, C.; Harmel, R.D.; van Griensven, A.; van Liew, M.W.; et al. SWAT: Model use, calibration and validation. Trans. ASABE 2012, 55, 1491–1508. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- McKay, M.D.; Beckman, R.J.; Conover, W.J. A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code. Technometrics 1979, 21, 239–245. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Van Griensven, A. Sensitivity, Auto-Calibration, Uncertainty and Model Evaluation in SWAT 2005. Available online: http://biomath.ugent.be/~ann/swat_manuals/SWAT2005_manual_sens_cal_unc.pdf (accessed on 6 March 2017).
- Veith, T.L.; Ghebremichael, L.T. How to: Applying and interpreting the SWAT Auto-calibration tools. In Proceedings of the Fifth International SWAT Conference Proceedings, Boulder, CO, USA, 5–7 August 2009.
- Van Liew, M.W.; Veith, T.L. Guidelines for Using the Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-Calibration Tools for Multi-Gage or Multi-Step Calibration in SWAT. Available online: http://www.academia.edu/21601923/Guidelines_for_Using_the_Sensitivity_Analysis_and_Auto-calibration_Tools_for_Multi-gage_or_Multi-step_Calibration_in_SWAT (accessed on 6 March 2017).
- Moriasi, D.N.; Arnold, J.G.; Van Liew, M.W.; Binger, R.L.; Harmel, R.D.; Veith, T. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans. ASABE 2006, 50, 885–900. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Giang, P.Q.; Toshiki, K.; Sakata, M.; Kunikane, S. Modelling the seasonal response of sediment yield to climate change in the Laos-Vietnam Transnational Upper Ca River Watershed. EnvironmentAsia 2014, 7, 152–162. [Google Scholar]
- Stine, A.R.; Huybers, P.; Fung, I.Y. Changes in the temperature in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Nature 2009, 457, 435–440. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed][Green Version]
- Jacques, F.M.B.; Shi, G.; Li, H.; Wang, W. An early-middle Eocene Antarctic summer monsoon: Evidence of ‘fossil climates’. Gondwana Res. 2014, 25, 1422–1428. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2000; p. 570. [Google Scholar]
- Ribalaygua, J.; Pino, M.R.; Pórtoles, J.; Roldán, E.; Gaitán, E.; Chinarro, D.; Torres, L. Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Aragón (Spain). Sci. Total Environ. 2013, 463, 1015–1030. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Liu, L.; Hong, Y.; Hocker, J.E.; Shafer, M.A.; Carter, L.M.; Gourley, J.J.; Bednarczyk, C.N.; Yong, B.; Adhikari, P. Analyzing projected changes and trends of temperature and precipitation in the southern USA from 16 downscaled global climate models. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2012, 109, 345–360. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jiang, X.; Yang, Z.L. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation in Texas from downscaled global climate models. Clim. Res. 2012, 53, 229–244. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Williams, J.R.; Nearing, M.A.; Nicks, A.; Skidmore, E.; Valentine, C.; King, K.; Savabi, R. Using soil erosion models for global change studies. J. Soil Water Conserv. 1996, 51, 381–385. [Google Scholar]
© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Giang, P.Q.; Giang, L.T.; Toshiki, K. Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia. Climate 2017, 5, 22. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010022
Giang PQ, Giang LT, Toshiki K. Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia. Climate. 2017; 5(1):22. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010022Chicago/Turabian Style
Giang, Pham Quy, Le Thi Giang, and Kosuke Toshiki. 2017. "Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia" Climate 5, no. 1: 22. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010022