Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Data
2.1. The Discrimination Method for Extreme Events
2.2. Determination of the Relative Threshold
2.3. Discrimination of Extreme High Temperature (Low Temperature) Events
2.4. Discrimination of Extreme Drought Events
2.5. Discrimination of Extreme Precipitation Events
2.6. Discrimination of Extreme Typhoon Events
2.7. Determination of the Risk Level of a Single Extreme Event
2.8. Determination of the Composite Risk Level for Multi Extreme Climate Events
2.9. Classification Thresholds for the Risk Levels of Extreme Climate Events in China
2.10. Validation
2.11. Data and Regionalization
3. Result
3.1. Extreme High Temperature and Low-Temperature Events
3.2. Extreme Drought Events
3.3. Extreme Precipitation Events
3.4. Extreme Typhoon Events
3.5. The Composite Grade Index of Extreme Climate Events
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
6.1 | Ten-year average (10 a) |
6.2 | Cumulative frequency (CF) |
6.3 | Extreme high-temperature event (Eth) |
6.4 | Extreme low-temperature event (Etl) |
6.5 | Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) |
6.6 | Extreme drought event (Edr) |
6.7 | Precipitation of 3 consecutive days (R3) |
6.8 | Extreme precipitation event (Epr) |
6.9 | Extreme typhoon event (Ety) |
6.10 | Extreme daily typhoon precipitation event (Etp) |
6.11 | Extreme daily typhoon maximum wind speed event (Etw) |
6.12 | Risk for extreme high-temperature events (Rht) |
6.13 | Risk for extreme low-temperature events (Rlt) |
6.14 | Risk for extreme drought events (Rdr) |
6.15 | Risk for extreme precipitation events (Rpr) |
6.16 | Risk for extreme typhoon events (Rth) |
6.17 | Multi extreme events composite risk grade index (MXCI) |
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Name | Abbreviation | Definition | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
Extreme high-temperature event | Eht | Daily maximum temperature exceeding 90th percentile | day |
Extreme low-temperature event | Elt | Daily minimum temperature below 10th percentile | day |
Extreme drought event | Edr | The SPI value for the last 90 days below −1.5 | day |
Extreme precipitation event | Epr | Precipitation exceeding 90th percentile and not less than 30 mm for three consecutive days | day |
Extreme typhoon precipitation | Etp | Daily precipitation of typhoon exceeding 90th percentile | mm |
Extreme typhoon wind speed | Etw | Daily maximum wind speed of typhoon exceeding 90th percentile | m/s |
Name | Abbreviation | 4 (Very High Risk) | 3 (High Risk) | 2 (Medium Risk) | 4 (Low Risk) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risk for extreme high-temperature events | Rht | ≥13.52% | <13.52%, ≥12.59% | <12.59%, ≥11.86% | <11.86% |
Risk for extreme low-temperature events | Rlt | ≥8.82% | <8.82%, ≥7.95% | <7.95%, ≥6.93% | <6.93% |
Risk for extreme drought events | Rdr | ≥8.52% | <8.52%, ≥7.32% | <7.32%, ≥6.32% | <6.32% |
Risk for extreme precipitation events | Rpr | ≥6.58% | <6.58%, ≥5.03% | <5.03%, ≥2.82% | <2.82% |
Risk for extreme typhoon events | Rty | ≥0.64% | <0.64%, ≥0.35% | <0.35%, ≥0.13% | <0.13% |
Composite risk for multi extreme events | MXCI | ≥13.00% | <13.00%, ≥11.00% | <11.00%, ≥8.00% | <8.00% |
Name | Northeast China | North China | Northwest China | East China | Central China | South China | Southwest China | Whole China |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Extreme high-temperature events | 11.63 | 12.05 | 12.49 | 11.90 | 11.70 | 12.82 | 12.64 | 12.19 |
Extreme low-temperature events | 6.55 | 6.81 | 7.25 | 6.88 | 7.55 | 7.56 | 7.70 | 7.19 |
Extreme drought events | 6.73 | 6.45 | 5.94 | 6.78 | 7.30 | 6.19 | 7.23 | 6.70 |
Extreme precipitation events | 2.65 | 2.04 | 1.50 | 5.38 | 4.79 | 6.01 | 4.12 | 3.77 |
Extreme typhoon wind speed events | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Extreme typhoon precipitation events | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Name | Northeast China | North China | Northwest China | East China | Central China | South China | Southwest China | Whole China |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Extreme high-temperature events | 0.930 ** | 1.540 ** | 1.400 ** | 1.010 ** | 0.840 ** | 1.590 ** | 1.600 ** | 1.220 ** |
Extreme low-temperature events | −2.270 ** | −2.270 ** | −1.970 ** | −2.140 ** | −1.740 ** | −1.840 ** | −1.720 ** | −1.980 ** |
Extreme drought events | −0.890 ** | −0.500 * | −1.070 ** | −0.920 ** | −0.410 | −0.450 | −0.160 | −0.670 ** |
Extreme precipitation events | 0.110 | 0.030 ** | 0.040 | 0.200 * | 0.080 | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.070 * |
Extreme typhoon wind speed events | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.042 ** | −0.021 ** | −0.118 ** | 0.000 | −0.023 ** |
Extreme typhoon precipitation events | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.008 | −0.001 | −0.008 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Name | Northeast China | North China | Northwest China | East China | Central China | South China | Southwest China |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual average | 1.82 | 1.73 | 1.79 | 2.48 | 2.37 | 3.05 | 2.35 |
Linear trend | −0.03 | −0.03 | 0.02 | −0.06 ** | −0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 ** |
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Zhang, C.; Xiao, C.; Li, S.; Ren, Y.; Zhang, S.; Cai, X.; Sangbu, Z. Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years. Climate 2023, 11, 191. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090191
Zhang C, Xiao C, Li S, Ren Y, Zhang S, Cai X, Sangbu Z. Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years. Climate. 2023; 11(9):191. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090191
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Cunjie, Chan Xiao, Shuai Li, Yuyu Ren, Siqi Zhang, Xiuhua Cai, and Zhujie Sangbu. 2023. "Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years" Climate 11, no. 9: 191. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090191