Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Determining Supply and Demand Indicators in the World Oil Market Affecting the Development of the Russian Oil Industry
- (i)
- rate of increase in the number of infected people in the world at a given time ti
- (ii)
- duration of the pandemic (duration is understood as the period of time from the moment of mass infection in China - 22.01.2020 to the analyzed point of time ti)
- (iii)
- number of people falling ill in the world at a time ti
- (iv)
- the number of countries in the world where COVID-19 infections have been recorded at a given time ti
- (v)
- number of countries in the world where quarantine has been implemented at a given time ti
- (vi)
- number of countries with prevalence > 0.001% of the population at the time of infection ti
- (vii)
- number of countries with prevalence > 0.01% of the population at the time of infection ti
- (viii)
- number of countries with prevalence > 0.1% of the population at the time of infection ti
- (ix)
- the number and rate of increase in the number of infected in the world’s main oil consumers (USA, China, India, Japan) [66]
- (x)
- the duration of the pandemic in these countries at a given time ti, in days
2.2. Predictive Scenarios of Russian Oil Industry Development
3. Results
3.1. Modeling the State of the Russian Oil Industry under the Influence of Supply and Demand Factors Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic
3.2. Predicting Supply and Demand in the Global Oil Market and Modeling Its Impact on the Russian Oil Industry
4. Discussions: Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the Covid 19 Pandemic
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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P | X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | X6 | X7 | X8 | X9 | X10 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P | 1 | ||||||||||
X1 | −0.81 * | 1 | |||||||||
X2 | −0.74 * | 0.76 * | 1 | ||||||||
X3 | −0.76 * | −0.04 | −0.11 | 1 | |||||||
X4 | −0.50 * | −0.19 | −0.12 | 0.61 * | 1 | ||||||
X5 | −0.71 * | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.12 | 1 | |||||
X6 | −0.70 * | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.13 | 0.75 * | 1 | ||||
X7 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.12 | 1 | |||
X8 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.15 | 0.48 * | 1 | ||
X9 | −0.79 * | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.13 | 1 | |
X10 | −0.75 * | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.17 | 0.86 * | 1 |
Indicator | Predicted Values | ||
---|---|---|---|
Q2 2020 | Q4 2020 | 2021 | |
Z | 0.1924 | 0.0001 | 0 |
X1 | 27.5 | 21.8 | 17.5 |
X3 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 10.3 |
X5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
X9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
YTP (Z) | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
YTP (X1) | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.9 |
YTP (X3) | 0.52 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
YTP (X5) | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.43 |
YTP (X9) | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
YTP | 0.66 | 0.42 | 0.57 |
p1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
p2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
p3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Ponkratov, V.; Kuznetsov, N.; Bashkirova, N.; Volkova, M.; Alimova, M.; Ivleva, M.; Vatutina, L.; Elyakova, I. Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic. J. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex. 2020, 6, 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085
Ponkratov V, Kuznetsov N, Bashkirova N, Volkova M, Alimova M, Ivleva M, Vatutina L, Elyakova I. Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2020; 6(3):85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085
Chicago/Turabian StylePonkratov, Vadim, Nikolay Kuznetsov, Nadezhda Bashkirova, Maria Volkova, Maria Alimova, Marina Ivleva, Larisa Vatutina, and Izabella Elyakova. 2020. "Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic" Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity 6, no. 3: 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085