Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

Ponkratov, Vadim; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Bashkirova, Nadezhda; Volkova, Maria; Alimova, Maria; Ivleva, Marina; Vatutina, Larisa; Elyakova, Izabella

doi:10.3390/joitmc6030085

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Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

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Department of Public Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 125993 Moscow, Russia

Research Institute of Digital Transformation Management, State University of Management, 109542 Moscow, Russia

Higher School of State Audit, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119234 Moscow, Russia

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Department of Industrial Logistics, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, Russia

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Russian Language Department, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, 117198 Moscow, Russia

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History and Philosophy Department, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 117997 Moscow, Russia

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Department of Public Administration and Law, Moscow Polytechnical University, 107023 Moscow, Russia

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Department of Economics and Finance, North-Eastern Federal University, 677000 Yakutsk, Russia

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

J. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex. 2020, 6(3), 85; https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085

Received: 20 July 2020 / Revised: 10 September 2020 / Accepted: 11 September 2020 / Published: 15 September 2020

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Abstract

The decrease in the economic activity level around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread has led to a sharp decrease in the crude oil price and provoked an oil war outbreak in the global energy market. The current situation has provoked the need for a total decrease in the crude oil production in the world. Considering that Russia is one of the main oil exporters on the world market, the need to determine the supply and demand levels for Russian oil is becoming relevant. The aim of the paper is to model predictive scenarios of Russian oil industry development, considering the specifics of the current economic environment given the COVID-19 pandemic. The multifactor correlation modeling method was used to form the system of indicators determining the level of demand and supply for Russian oil used and the total level of their influence. The functions determine the probability of implementing various scenarios of oil industry development depending on the predicted values of demand and supply. The three-sigma rule and the fuzzy sets method were used to estimate three scenarios of oil industry development for 2020–2021. Changes in revenues of the industry under the influence of forecast indicators of supply and demand for oil have been assessed and the probability of implementation of each of the scenarios has been reasoned. The results obtained are of a practical nature and can be used by government agencies, financial intermediaries, and scientists to diagnose Russian oil industry development. The results will be useful for oil companies to develop a strategy of open innovations for further design of the scientific information field for the effective functioning of the industry in complete uncertainty conditions. View Full-Text

Keywords: oil wars; Russia; crude oil; oil industry; COVID-19 pandemic; open innovations

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Ponkratov, V.; Kuznetsov, N.; Bashkirova, N.; Volkova, M.; Alimova, M.; Ivleva, M.; Vatutina, L.; Elyakova, I. Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic. J. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex. 2020, 6, 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085

AMA Style

Ponkratov V, Kuznetsov N, Bashkirova N, Volkova M, Alimova M, Ivleva M, Vatutina L, Elyakova I. Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2020; 6(3):85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ponkratov, Vadim, Nikolay Kuznetsov, Nadezhda Bashkirova, Maria Volkova, Maria Alimova, Marina Ivleva, Larisa Vatutina, and Izabella Elyakova. 2020. "Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic" Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity 6, no. 3: 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030085

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Predictive Scenarios of the Russian Oil Industry; with a Discussion on Macro and Micro Dynamics of Open Innovation in the COVID 19 Pandemic

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