This section analyzed the classification results of consistency. It included the consistency classification results of loss category and loss severity, the credibility analysis of consistency, and the research on the influence mechanism of consistency on social concern.
4.5.3. Analysis on the Influence of Consistency on Social Concern
After realizing the quantitative calculation of the degree of graphic consistency, this paper explored the effect of graphic consistency in Weibo posts on Weibo’s social attention based on the econometric model. According to the interpretation level theory, information consistency theory, and dual processing model, this paper holds that text and image information with consistent graphics and text can provide specific and detailed loss information, which is more likely to attract users’ interaction and attention. Consistency between the loss information in a Weibo’s text and image creates a concrete and detailed scene. This vividness reduces the psychological distance, which in turn enhances users’ emotional resonance and cognitive participation. According to the theory of information consistency, consistent information can reduce cognitive conflicts, make information processing smoother, increase users’ goodwill, and thus promote information sharing and discussion. In addition, the dual processing model shows that information with the same image and text can effectively attract users’ attention, persuade them to process information at a deeper level, form a deeper memory, and improve the retention rate and communication efficiency of information.
At the same time, combined with the theory of crisis management and crisis communication, in the crisis situation, information with consistent images and text can provide a clearer and more credible explanation, which is helpful to reduce misunderstanding and panic during the disaster and stabilize the audience’s mood quickly. According to the theory of crisis management, when an organization faces a potential or actual crisis, it needs to manage and control stakeholders’ cognition and response to the crisis through effective information dissemination. Information with consistent images and text not only reduces the fuzziness and uncertainty of information but also improves the transparency and credibility of information. It also evokes the emotional resonance of users through the joint action of vision and text, helping the audience to better understand the seriousness of the crisis, and at the same time, making the public feel the concern and support of the organization. In addition, according to the theory of crisis communication, consistency and transparency are the key factors to establish and maintain public trust. Information with consistent images and text can enhance the credibility of information and improve the trust of the audience. In the dual processing model, information with the same image and text can help the audience better understand and remember the key information through multi-sensory stimulation and improve the information retention rate and communication efficiency. This consistency can also stimulate the interactive behavior of users, increase the exposure of information, and promote the discussion and information diffusion within the community, thus helping organizations to understand the public’s needs and concerns more quickly and adjust their crisis response strategies in time.
To sum up, this paper puts forward the core hypothesis that Weibo posts with consistent images and text can significantly enhance the social concern on Weibo.
(1) Regression analysis
This paper constructed a multiple linear regression model to explore the influence of image–text consistency on the social concern of rainstorm-related Weibo posts on the Weibo platform. The model was set as shown in Formula (1):
The dependent variable of the model, Attention, is the social attention gained by a Weibo post. In this paper, the sum of the three indicators of Weibo’s likes, comments, and reposts is taken as the measure of the social attention gained by the Weibo post. The core explanatory variable is the consistency of the Weibo graphic loss information calculated in this paper, and Controls is the control variable in the model. As for the control variables, this paper refers to the research of Cai et al. [
42] and selects the relevant features of the text, such as the emotional intensity of a Weibo text, the length of a Weibo text, the number of topics in a Weibo text, the number of words in disaster loss categories, and the number of words in disaster loss severity in the Weibo text. Referring to the research of Shin et al. [
37], we selected the related characteristics of the image, such as the number of images for each Weibo post, the storage space of the image, the warm and cold colors of the image, and the number of faces in the image. And the personal characteristics of the bloggers on Weibo [
42], including the number of fans of bloggers on Weibo and whether the IP addresses of bloggers on Weibo are located in the disaster-stricken area. For the relevant characteristics of the text data, this paper used the pre-trained ERNIE-UIE emotion analysis model to calculate the emotional polarity and emotional intensity of Weibo’s text, counted the number of all characters in Weibo’s text to characterize the text length, and measured the loss category information and loss severity information contained in Weibo’s text by using the number of words matched with those in Weibo’s text in the disaster loss category dictionary and disaster loss severity dictionary. For the relevant characteristics of image data, this paper used the computer vision method to judge the color tone of the image, calculated the number of faces in the image based on the Haar cascade classifier, and counted the storage space of the image as a symbol of image clarity. Descriptive statistics of each variable in the model are shown in
Table 1.
In order to ensure the independence of variables in the model, this study conducted multiple collinearity tests. By calculating the variance expansion factor (VIF), we found that the VIF values of all the variables are less than 2.5, indicating that there was no multicollinearity in the explanatory variables. Because some variables have heteroscedasticity, this study chose the robust least squares method to measure them to improve the accuracy of model coefficient estimation. The regression results of the econometric model are shown in
Table 2. The results of the econometric model show that the consistency of the images and text has a significant positive impact on Weibo’s social concern, and the results meet the previous assumptions. At the same time, it is observed that the control variables, such as the emotional intensity of the text, the number of pictures, the number of fans, and the location of bloggers’ IP in the disaster-stricken areas, also have a significant improvement effect on Weibo’s social concern, while the model estimation coefficient of text length is negative and significant, indicating that the increase in text length will inhibit Weibo’s social concern, and the lengthy Weibo will reduce readability and improve the difficulty of obtaining information.
(2) Robustness test
In order to ensure the reliability and validity of the research conclusion, this study changed the calculation method of the core explanatory variables, and based on the CLIP model, calculated the similarity between a Weibo text and a picture on the overall granularity of the Weibo text and images. Specifically, this study calculated the similarity between image data and text data based on cn_cnlip (Chinese clip) and Clip-vit-large-patch14 models suitable for Chinese scenes. During the experiment, the input of the model was a complete Weibo text and its corresponding Weibo image, and the output was the semantic similarity between the Weibo text and the whole picture. At the same time, in order to make the output similarity results meet the requirements of the specific scenario described in this paper, this study further improved the existing neural network structure of the model and added a batch normalization regularization layer before the final sigmoid layer, so that the values propagated forward by the neural network can be standardized and normalized, and the numerical distribution can be standardized without destroying the existing pre-training model structure, so that the sigmoid layer can work normally and output more realistic results. The output result of the model was 0-1, in which the numerical value tends to 1, which means that the graphic similarity was high, while the graphic similarity was low. Because this paper focuses on the consistency of graphic loss information, and the graphic similarity directly calculated by using the CLIP model can be considered the similarity of the whole graphic, not limited to the dimension of loss information, the results were fine-tuned based on the classification results of the previous graphic loss information. If the previous graphic loss information labels did not match, the graphic similarity was assigned to 0, while if the previous graphic loss information labels matched, the graphic similarity was assigned to the similarity calculated based on the CLIP model. In this paper, the similarity of image and text calculated by the fine-tuned CLIP model was used as a replacement variable for the consistency of image and text loss information in order to test the robustness of the measurement model. The model regression results of the robustness test by replacing the core explanatory variables are shown in
Table 3.
According to the regression results, it can be seen that after replacing the core explanatory variables, the degree of graphic consistency still has a significant positive impact on Weibo’s social concern, so it can be proved that the conclusion of this paper is robust.
In order to further verify the robustness of the research results, this paper used the method of reducing control variables to test the robustness. In the original model, this paper included several control variables to capture the factors that may affect the dependent variables as comprehensively as possible. However, too many control variables may introduce noise, which will affect the explanatory ability of the model and the stability of the results. Therefore, we adopted the method of reducing control variables, only kept the core explanatory variables and main control variables, and conducted a regression analysis again to observe the robustness of the results. The experimental results are shown in
Table 4.
By reducing the control variables, this paper finds that the significance and signs of core explanatory variables are consistent under different model settings. This shows that even if there are few control variables, the influence of the core explanatory variables on the dependent variables is still significant, and the direction remains unchanged. This result further verifies the robustness of the core explanatory variables in the model and enhances the confidence in the research conclusions.
In order to further verify the robustness of the research results, this paper also adopted the robustness test method of shortening the time window. The sample period selected by the original regression was from 20 July to 20 October 2023. However, the actual duration of the rainstorm event was less than three months. According to the records of the meteorological department, the rainstorm event occurred on 26 July 2023. Before 12 August, the discussion on this rainstorm and the disasters caused by it was most concentrated on social media. On 12 August 2023, the Government Information Office held a press conference to inform people about flood control and disaster relief. Since then, with the advancement of rescue work and the shift in public concerns, the relevant discussions have gradually decreased. Therefore, ending the sampling period on 12 August 2023 can help avoid the interference of discussions unrelated to this rainstorm in the later period. In order to ensure the robustness of the analysis results, this paper adjusted the sample period from 26 July to 12 August 2023 and re-conducted the regression analysis. The experimental results are shown in
Table 5.
Using the robustness test based on sample selection, this paper finds that the significance and signs of the core explanatory variables are consistent under different sample conditions. This shows that even when the sample range is adjusted, the influence of the core explanatory variables on the dependent variables is still significant, and the direction remains unchanged. This result further verifies the robustness of the core explanatory variables in the model.
(3) Heterogeneity analysis
Considering that different users on Weibo have different numbers of fans, and after the emotion analysis, Weibo’s text was divided into two types of emotional polarity, positive emotion and negative emotion, so this paper made a heterogeneity analysis on the number of fans of different users on Weibo and the positive and negative emotional tendencies of Weibo’s text. Among them, whether the number of fans exceeded 10,000 was the criterion. Users with more than 10,000 fans were considered to belong to a group with more fans, while users with fewer than 10,000 fans were considered to belong to a group with fewer fans. The emotional polarity of Weibo’s text was characterized by the discriminant results output by the pre-trained ERNIE-UIE model, including positive emotions and negative emotions. The results of the grouping regression based on the differences in the number of fans and the emotional polarity of the text are shown in
Table 6.
According to
Table 6, it can be seen that the consistency of the core explanatory variables is significantly different among groups with different numbers of fans and emotional polarity. Specifically, for groups with a large number of fans and a small number of fans, the consistency of the graphics and text has a significant positive impact on Weibo’s social attention, but the coefficients and significance of the two groups are different. In groups with a large number of fans, the coefficients and significance of the explanatory variables are higher. The results show that the consistency of graphics and text content has a more significant role and effect in enhancing social attention. For accounts with a large number of fans, the content published by them can quickly attract and maintain a high level of social attention because of its high initial visibility and broad audience base. According to the theory of information communication in crisis communication, the information of high-impact accounts is not only transmitted quickly but also easily regarded as authoritative and credible by the public, thus enhancing the acceptance and communication efficiency of information. In addition, such accounts often form a close social network with other influential accounts, further amplifying the effect of information dissemination. Therefore, in a crisis situation, accounts with large fan bases can convey key information more effectively, enhance the public’s trust, and quickly gain extensive social attention through the content of graphic consistency. In contrast, although accounts with a small number of fans can attract some attention through high-quality graphic content, their influence is relatively limited due to the lack of sufficient initial exposure and communication channels.
In groups with different emotional polarities in Weibo’s texts, the effect of graphic consistency on Weibo’s social concern is different. On Weibo, where the text is positive, the content of graphic consistency can also significantly enhance Weibo’s social concern, while on Weibo, where the text is negative, the effect of graphic consistency on Weibo’s social concern is not significant. From the perspective of crisis management and crisis communication, positive emotional information helps to alleviate the public’s anxiety during the crisis, enhance the credibility and affinity of organizations or individuals, and then promote the positive dissemination of information. According to the theory of emotional resonance in crisis communication, the content of positive emotions is more likely to arouse the emotional resonance of the public and stimulate their motivation to share and support, thus expanding the coverage of information. On the contrary, the content of negative emotions, even if the images and text are consistent, may reduce their appeal by causing public panic, dissatisfaction, or resistance. In the crisis situation, negative information was widespread, and overemphasizing negative emotions may aggravate the psychological burden of the public and lead to information overload, thus weakening the positive effect of graphic consistency. Therefore, in order to effectively enhance social concern in a crisis, we should pay attention to the use of positive emotional graphic content to establish a positive public image and trust relationship.
(4) Moderating effect analysis
After exploring the robustness and heterogeneity of the influence of consistency on Weibo’s social concern, this paper further explored the moderating effect in order to provide optimization strategies and guidance for the official media and individual users to release relevant information on social media platforms during the disaster. This paper holds that the correlation between Weibo’s text and images will adjust the influence of the consistency of text and images on Weibo’s social concern. According to the theory of crisis management, transparency and responsibility are the key principles in crisis responses, and concrete images and text descriptions containing disaster-related information can enhance the transparency of information and facilitate public understanding, thus enhancing trust during disasters. Therefore, this paper expected that the number of images on Weibo and the information related to disaster relief contained in Weibo’s texts can positively adjust the influence of the consistency of images and text on the social concern on Weibo, that is, by enhancing the transparency of information, reducing the cognitive burden, and improving the consistency and reliability of disaster-related information, thus enhancing the social concern on Weibo. In this section, the number of images on Weibo, the information related to disaster relief operations contained in Weibo texts, and the consistency of images and text were constructed. The regression results of the Weibo graphics and other characteristics as adjustment variables are shown in
Table 7.
According to the regression results, it can be seen that the number of pictures on Weibo with consistent images and text and the information related to disaster relief actions contained in the text can play a positive role in regulating the influence of the consistency of images and text on the social concern on Weibo. According to the theory of visual communication, images can provide intuitive and concrete information and enhance the perceptibility and attractiveness of information. In crisis situations, people tend to receive and process visual information because images can quickly convey complex situations and emotions and reduce obstacles to text understanding. When the content of Weibo contains more images, these images can not only supplement the text description but also attract more attention through visual impact. Especially during the crisis, images can show key information, such as the scene situation and the progress of rescue, so that the public can understand the development of the situation more intuitively, thus increasing the authenticity and credibility of the information. In addition, the use of multiple images can also build a coherent storyline to help the audience better understand and remember information and promote the sharing and dissemination of information. Therefore, the increase in the number of images enhances the visual effect and story of the information, further magnifies the positive effect of the consistency of the images and text, and improves the social attention of Weibo.
For the information related to disaster relief operations contained in Weibo’s text, according to the transparency principle and responsibility theory in crisis communication, it is helpful to report the specific measures and progress of disaster relief operations openly and transparently, which will help to establish and maintain the credibility of organizations or individuals. In the crisis situation, the public’s demand for information is particularly urgent, and they want to know what specific actions government agencies, non-governmental organizations, or other interested parties are taking to deal with the crisis. When Weibo described the specific disaster relief action in detail, it not only showed the responsibility and action of the information publisher but also provided a clear source of information for the public, reducing uncertainty and panic. In addition, disaster relief information usually has high news value and social value, which makes it easy to attract the attention of the media and the public and then lead to more discussion and sharing. Therefore, the information related to disaster relief operations contained in the text enhances the influence of graphic consistency by improving the relevance and practicability of the information and further enhances the social concern on Weibo.
(5) Quantile regression
In order to further verify the robustness of the benchmark regression results, this paper used the quantile regression method for supplementary testing. Considering that the dependent variables usually have skewed distribution characteristics, the mean regression results may be disturbed by extreme values. Quantile regression can reflect the influence of core variables on typical observations more stably by estimating the effects of the dependent variables on different conditional quantiles (τ = 0.25, 0.5, 0.75) and is insensitive to outliers. The results in
Table 8 show that the consistency is significantly positive at τ = 0.5 and τ = 0.75, and the effect scale increases with the increase in the quantile. The variable failed the significance test at τ = 0.25. It can be seen that the promotion of graphic consistency to social attention focuses on Weibo, which is of medium and high concern but has limited influence on Weibo, which has low communication power. This stratification effect may be one of the reasons why the benchmark OLS regression R
2 is relatively low; that is, the mean regression fails to fully capture the heterogeneous influence of core variables at different response levels, which weakens the overall explanatory power of the model. This discovery has practical enlightenment, and improving the consistency of images and text is more effective for Weibo (such as official government accounts), which has a certain communication foundation. For Weibo posts with low influence, priority should be given to solving other communication bottlenecks (such as initial exposure). Future research can further explore content optimization strategies at different communication levels.