# A Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Students’ Interactions in a Learning Management System for Facilitating Distance Learning

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

- Finding out whether the activity increases in the periods close to the deadlines of the written assignments or close to the dates of the final exams;
- Investigating whether there is a timely response to the posts in the forum;
- Associating the general forum activity of students with their academic progress.

## 2. Related Work

## 3. Methodology

#### 3.1. Description of the Data Set

#### 3.2. Theoretical Background

## 4. Experimental Results

- The deadline of the first written assignment, 2 December 2020 (the deadline expires at 23:59);
- The deadline of the second written assignment, 20 January 2021;
- The deadline of the third written assignment, 24 February 2021;
- The deadline of the fourth written assignment, 7 April 2021;
- The deadline of the fifth written assignment, 12 May 2021;
- The date of the first exam, 6 June 2021;
- The date of the resit exam, 30 June 2021.

- The fifth, third, and the day before the deadlines of each assignment;
- The dates of the deadlines of each assignment;
- The dates of the two exams.

#### 4.1. Activity during the Days before the Deadlines of Each Assignment

#### 4.1.1. Activity during the Deadlines of Each Assignment

#### 4.1.2. Relationship of Students’ Activity with Their Academic Progress

#### 4.1.3. Elapsed Time between Posts

## 5. Discussion and Pedagogical Reflections

## 6. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Data Availability Statement

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**The counts of view and post actions aggregated by each month. (

**a**) Kinds of actions. (

**b**) Roles of the users.

**Figure 2.**The distributions calculated on certain days before the deadlines of the written assignments. (

**a**) The exponential distributions five days before the deadlines. (

**b**) The counts of actions five days before the deadlines. (

**c**) The exponential distributions three days before the deadlines. (

**d**) The counts of actions three days before the deadlines. (

**e**) The exponential distributions one day before the deadlines. (

**f**) The counts of actions one day before the deadlines.

**Figure 3.**The counts of actions aggregated by each assignment and certain days before the deadlines.

**Figure 4.**The distributions during the deadline dates of the written assignments. (

**a**) The exponential distributions of the first three written assignments. (

**b**) The counts of actions of the first three written assignments. (

**c**) The exponential distributions of the fourth written assignment. (

**d**) The counts of actions of the fourth written assignment. (

**e**) The exponential distributions of the fifth written assignment. (

**f**) The counts of actions of the fifth written assignment.

**Figure 5.**The normalized counts of view and post actions aggregated by the ranges of grades of the students.

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Karapiperis, D.; Tzafilkou, K.; Tsoni, R.; Feretzakis, G.; Verykios, V.S.
A Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Students’ Interactions in a Learning Management System for Facilitating Distance Learning. *Information* **2023**, *14*, 440.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info14080440

**AMA Style**

Karapiperis D, Tzafilkou K, Tsoni R, Feretzakis G, Verykios VS.
A Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Students’ Interactions in a Learning Management System for Facilitating Distance Learning. *Information*. 2023; 14(8):440.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info14080440

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Karapiperis, Dimitrios, Katerina Tzafilkou, Rozita Tsoni, Georgios Feretzakis, and Vassilios S. Verykios.
2023. "A Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Students’ Interactions in a Learning Management System for Facilitating Distance Learning" *Information* 14, no. 8: 440.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info14080440