Simulating the Response of Estuarine Salinity to Natural and Anthropogenic Controls
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Observed Data for Model Validation
2.2. The Integrated Modeling System—Description and Setup
2.3. River Flow Scenarios
3. Results
3.1. Model Verification—Salinity during 2004
3.2. Model Results for the 1999–2008 Period
Impact of River Flow Scenarios on Bay Salinity
3.3. Effects of Potential Sea Level Rise on Bay Salinity
4. Discussion
- Apalachicola Bay salinity regime can quickly recover from extreme events such as hurricanes.
- Scenario I (observed) is more likely to create favorable conditions for oyster production.
- Scenarios II–IV, corresponding to higher (~1%) consumptive freshwater demand than in the observed scenario, are likely to result in slightly (~5%) higher salinities and unfavorable conditions for oyster production.
- Newer freshwater flow alternatives which may cause more significant changes to the bay salinity are being developed by the Corps.
- The worst case sea level rise scenario (~1 m by 2100) could significantly increase the bay salinity by up to 20%.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Scenario | Mean | Mean (%) | Standard Deviation | Standard Deviation (%) | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | 519.2 | 0.00 | 411.4 | 0.00 | 124.6 | 4700.6 |
II | 514.4 | 0.92 | 391.3 | 4.89 | 136.4 | 3965.7 |
III | 515.9 | 0.64 | 391.4 | 4.86 | 136.4 | 3965.7 |
IV | 516.4 | 0.54 | 391.0 | 4.96 | 136.4 | 3965.7 |
Scenario | Flowrate Adjustment |
---|---|
V | 90% (−10%) |
VI | 110% (+10%) |
VII | 130% (+30%) |
VIII | 150% (+50%) |
IX | 200% (+100%) |
X | 130% (+30%), when flow is over 15,000 cfs |
Scenario | Mean | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|
I | 519 | 124.6 | 4700.6 |
V | 467 | 112.1 | 4230.5 |
VI | 571 | 137.1 | 5170.7 |
VII | 604 | 162.0 | 6110.8 |
VIII | 778 | 186.9 | 7050.9 |
IX | 1038 | 249.2 | 9401.2 |
X | 1298 | 311.5 | 11,751.5 |
Station | Root Mean Square Error | Correlation Coefficient |
---|---|---|
Cat Point | 1.3 ppt | 0.87 |
Dry Bar | 1.6 ppt | 0.82 |
East Bay | 2.4 ppt | 0.71 |
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Paramygin, V.A.; Sheng, Y.P.; Davis, J.R.; Herrington, K. Simulating the Response of Estuarine Salinity to Natural and Anthropogenic Controls. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 76. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040076
Paramygin VA, Sheng YP, Davis JR, Herrington K. Simulating the Response of Estuarine Salinity to Natural and Anthropogenic Controls. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2016; 4(4):76. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040076
Chicago/Turabian StyleParamygin, Vladimir A., Y. Peter Sheng, Justin R. Davis, and Karen Herrington. 2016. "Simulating the Response of Estuarine Salinity to Natural and Anthropogenic Controls" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 4, no. 4: 76. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040076