A CDC–ANFIS-Based Model for Assessing Ship Collision Risk in Autonomous Navigation

To improve collision risk prediction in high-traffic coastal waters and support real-time decision-making in maritime navigation, this study proposes a regional collision risk prediction system integrating the Computed Distance at Collision (CDC) method with an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Unlike Distance at Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), which depends on the position of Global Positioning System (GPS) antennas, Computed Distance at Collision (CDC) directly reflects the actual hull shape and potential collision point. This enables a more realistic assessment of collision risk by accounting for the hull geometry and boundary conditions specific to different ship types. The system was designed and validated using ship motion simulations involving bulk and container ships across varying speeds and crossing angles. The CDC method was used to define collision, almost-collision, and near-collision situations based on geometric and hydrodynamic criteria. Subsequently, the FIS–CDC model was constructed using the ANFIS by learning patterns in collision time and distance under each condition. A total of four input variables—ship speed, crossing angle, remaining time, and remaining distance—were used to infer the collision risk index (CRI), allowing for a more nuanced and vessel-specific assessment than traditional CPA-based indicators. Simulation results show that the time to collision decreases with higher speeds and increases with wider crossing angles. The bulk carrier exhibited a wider collision-prone angle range and a greater sensitivity to speed changes than the container ship, highlighting differences in maneuverability and risk response. The proposed system demonstrated real-time applicability and accurate risk differentiation across scenarios. This research contributes to enhancing situational awareness and proactive risk mitigation in Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS) and Vessel Traffic System (VTS) environments. Future work will focus on real-time CDC optimization and extending the model to accommodate diverse ship types and encounter geometries.