Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Introduction—Model Components
2.2. Model Forcing
2.3. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan
2.4. Modeler Assumptions
2.5. Limitations
3. Results
3.1. Most Common Pathway in Each Scenario
3.2. Timing of Signals, Triggers and Adaptation Thresholds
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix A.1. Structured Walkthrough
Action | Individual Scheme | Mixed Scheme | Collective Scheme |
---|---|---|---|
Soft protection | 0%: 10% | 1.5%: 5% | 3%: 0% |
Hard protection | 0%: 20% | 2.5%: 5% | 5%: 0% |
Infrastructure | 0%: 30% | 3%: 15% | 6%: 0% |
Improved three waters | 5%: 0% | 5%: 0% | 5%: 0% |
Prepare to retreat | 0%: 10–30% | 0.5%: 10% | 1%: 0% |
Managed retreat | 0%: 50% | 10%: 15% | 20%: 0% |
Appendix A.2. Consideration of Submodel Interactions in Practice
- (1)
- ‘Kicking and screaming’ and ‘Clean leader’ are both RCP4.5, but have different SSPs (SSP3 and SSP5, respectively). Analysis of the most common pathways in each of these scenarios (Figure 3 of main paper) shows notable differences; as the RCP coding is identical for these two scenarios, these changes can only be driven by SSP.
- (2)
- Comparison of the most common pathways in ‘kicking and screaming’ (RCP4.5 SSP3) and ‘Unspecific Pacific’ (RCP8.5 SSP3) shows differences in both pathways selected and the timing of these pathways; as the SSP coding for these scenarios is identical, it can be inferred that RCP is the driver of these differences.
- (3)
- ‘Homo economicus’ (RCP6.0 SSP5) and ‘Clean leader’ (RCP4.5 SSP5) show identical pathways, as RCP6.0 and RCP4.5 are coded very similarly, with only minor changes in rainfall/runoff patterns between the two RCPs; as the pathways between the two scenarios are identical, rainfall/runoff can be ruled out as a driver of pathway changes, and the rate of SLR and associated coastal inundation confirmed as the main drivers of adaptation pathway changes in these scenarios.
Appendix B. Methodological Overview
1 | We define desirability in the context of development/intensification on any given spatial area unit in the model with respect to sea levels. It is based on land being above high tide level, the value and age of property in the location, and the record of hazard impacts on the location. Any spatial area unit with a desirability value above the minimum threshold can have a house or business developed on it, if a ‘person’ agent at that location chooses to do so. |
2 | Freshwater, wastewater and stormwater provision. |
3 | House loans in New Zealand require insurance to be available and increasingly insurance companies are seeing sea-level rise as a foreseeable and therefore an uninsurable cause of damage. |
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Indicator | Category | Signal Value | Trigger Value | Adaptation Threshold Value | Actions |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Insurance premium or deductibles increase | Financial | Mean annual insurance cost is 2.05% of net worth | Mean annual insurance cost is 2.2% of net worth | Mean annual insurance cost is 5% of net worth | SP 60%, IU: 40% |
Maintenance costs increase | Financial | Mean annual building maintenance cost is 2.1% of net worth | Mean annual building maintenance cost is 2.23% of net worth | Mean annual building maintenance cost is 5% of net worth | IU: 60%, PR: 40% |
Aesthetic degradation | Social | A seawall has been constructed | Five or more seawalls have been constructed | 10 or more seawalls have been constructed | IU: 60%, PR: 40% |
Total hazardous area | Psychological | 5 or more patches contain stressed or uninsurable houses | 10 or more patches contain stressed or uninsurable houses | 20 or more patches contain stressed or uninsurable houses | 3W: 60%, IU: 20%, HP: 20% |
Decline in property desirability | Financial | Desirability has fallen to 97.5% of its original value | Desirability has fallen to 95% of its original value | Desirability has fallen to 90% of its original value | HP: 60%, IU: 40% |
Number of flood events | Hazard | 5% of occupied patches have been impacted by one or more events since a 10-year event-free period | 10% of occupied patches have been impacted by one or more events since a 10-year event-free period | 20% of occupied patches have been impacted by one or more events since a 10-year event-free period | IU: 60%, PR: 40% |
Three waters vulnerability | Hazard | RSLR reaches 10 cm | RSLR reaches 20 cm | RSLR reaches 30 cm | 3W: 60%, IU: 40% |
Preparation for active retreat | Policy | N/A | Selection of action PR | N/A | AR: 100% |
Multiple active triggers | Policy | N/A | Two or more triggers active simultaneously | N/A | HP: 33% IU: 33% PR: 33% |
Abbreviation | Action | Adaptation Undertaken | Lead Time |
---|---|---|---|
SQ | Status Quo | Raise floors and land elevation | None |
SP | Soft Protection | Beach nourishment | 2 years |
HP | Hard Protection | Build seawall | 4 years |
IU | Infrastructure upgrades | Raise floors and land elevation, pumped three waters system, prevention of new builds in hazard zones via planning rule | 7 years |
3W | Improved Three Waters | Pumped three waters system | 5 years |
PR | Preparation for active Retreat | Consultation and planning | None |
AR | Active Retreat | Active Retreat | 20 years |
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Allison, A.; Stephens, S.; Blackett, P.; Lawrence, J.; Dickson, M.E.; Matthews, Y. Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, 343. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020343
Allison A, Stephens S, Blackett P, Lawrence J, Dickson ME, Matthews Y. Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2023; 11(2):343. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020343
Chicago/Turabian StyleAllison, Andrew, Scott Stephens, Paula Blackett, Judy Lawrence, Mark Edward Dickson, and Yvonne Matthews. 2023. "Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11, no. 2: 343. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020343
APA StyleAllison, A., Stephens, S., Blackett, P., Lawrence, J., Dickson, M. E., & Matthews, Y. (2023). Simulating the Impacts of an Applied Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Plan Using an Agent-Based Model: A Tauranga City, New Zealand, Case Study. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(2), 343. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020343