The Impact of Agricultural Infrastructure on Carbon Reduction in Grain Production: A Comparative Study of Different Agricultural Infrastructure Types

While extant literature has thoroughly investigated carbon mitigation in grain production and agricultural infrastructure’s yield effects, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding their synergistic pathways for emission reduction. This empirical study examines how agricultural infrastructure contributes to carbon emission reduction in grain production across 30 Chinese provinces from 2009 to 2023. Using two-way fixed-effects and mediation-effect models, we demonstrate that agricultural infrastructure significantly inhibits carbon emissions intensity, with effects varying by type of infrastructure: agricultural water infrastructure, digital infrastructure, agricultural power infrastructure and rural transportation infrastructure, in descending order. We identify three key mechanisms: planting structure optimization, technological progress, and disaster incidence reduction. Specifically, agricultural water infrastructure and digital infrastructure operate through structural improvement and technological advancement, while agricultural water infrastructure and rural transportation infrastructure function through disaster mitigation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals distinct regional patterns: northern regions benefit more from agricultural water infrastructure and rural transportation infrastructure, while southern regions show stronger effects from agricultural water infrastructure and digital infrastructure. In major grain-producing areas, agricultural water infrastructure and agricultural power infrastructure demonstrate significant emissions reduction, whereas non-core production regions rely more on agricultural water infrastructure and digital infrastructure. Additionally, infrastructure generates greater yield-enhancing effects for rice and wheat versus corn. Policy implications include strengthening investments in agricultural water infrastructure, promoting digital agriculture, and developing region-specific infrastructure strategies.