Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)
, Johannes Schuler 1, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum 1,2 and Peter Zander 1Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
Several areas of the text need to have typos fixed. I'm not listing all here but a few are:
+ p. 3; change to "... compare to profit optimization on cropping ..."
+ p. 4; change 584.624 to 584,625; change "farmers to have" to "farmers have"
+ p. 10; change "boarders" to "borders"
+ p. 13; change "crops crown ..." to "crops grown ..."
+ p. 14; change "area are used ..." to "area is used ..."
While using fixed prices makes the MOTAD model easy to implement, some caveats should be noted as if climate change brings about as much adversity as assumed elsewhere, real prices are going to be increasing.
Irrigation is implemented under dry conditions but is it not possible that wells won't be able to draw enough irrigation water to irrigate as much as what is prescribed when it is dry for many consecutive years?
English is overall not bad but typos need to be taken care of and the authors should go through the flow of all the text from top to bottom about 3-5 times and make appropriate changes.
Author Response
Thank you for your reviews. We appreciate the time and effort that you and the other reviewer dedicated to providing feedback on our manuscript and are grateful for the insightful comments on and valuable improvements to our paper. We have incorporated most of the suggestions. Those changes are highlighted within the manuscript. Please see in the below, in blue, for a point-by-point response. All page numbers refer to the revised manuscript file with tracked changes.
Manuscript ID: agriculture-2561113
Reviewers' Comments to the Authors:
Reviewer 1
(x) I would not like to sign my review report
( ) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper
( ) English very difficult to understand/incomprehensible
( ) Extensive editing of English language required
(x) Moderate editing of English language required
( ) Minor editing of English language required
( ) English language fine. No issues detected
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Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
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Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
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Are all the cited references relevant to the research? |
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Is the research design appropriate? |
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Are the methods adequately described? |
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Are the results clearly presented? |
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Are the conclusions supported by the results? |
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Comments and Suggestions for Authors
Several areas of the text need to have typos fixed. I'm not listing all here but a few are:
+ p. 3; change to "... compare to profit optimization on cropping ..."
+ p. 4; change 584.624 to 584,625; change "farmers to have" to "farmers have"
+ p. 10; change "boarders" to "borders"
+ p. 13; change "crops crown ..." to "crops grown ..."
+ p. 14; change "area are used ..." to "area is used ..."
Comments on the Quality of English Language
English is overall not bad but typos need to be taken care of and the authors should go through the flow of all the text from top to bottom about 3-5 times and make appropriate changes.
Author response: Thank you for the feedback and detailed corrections. We have gone through the manuscript again and, in addition to the typos mentioned above, have made small changes throughout the manuscript to improve the reading flow.
While using fixed prices makes the MOTAD model easy to implement, some caveats should be noted as if climate change brings about as much adversity as assumed elsewhere, real prices are going to be increasing.
Author response: Thank you very much! I agree, climate change will not only increase production risks but also affect other factors. Not only output but also input prices are affected and likely to increase. We have expanded the paragraph in the discussion on page 15 accordingly. The focus of the manuscript is on production risks, over market risks, therefore these aspects have not been further elaborated.
Irrigation is implemented under dry conditions but is it not possible that wells won't be able to draw enough irrigation water to irrigate as much as what is prescribed when it is dry for many consecutive years?
Author response: Thank you very much! Yes, (ground) water scarcity is a potential risk that limits irrigation even today. The discussion on page 14-15 briefly discusses this issue. Nevertheless, it is important to consider that the climate scenarios predict more drought in the summer months but also more precipitation in the winter months. Therefore, under the climate projections considered in this study, it is likely that the groundwater level will be recharged over the winter months.
Reviewer 2
Open Review
(x) I would not like to sign my review report
( ) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper
( ) English very difficult to understand/incomprehensible
( ) Extensive editing of English language required
( ) Moderate editing of English language required
( ) Minor editing of English language required
(x) English language fine. No issues detected
Author response: Thank you for the feedback and the positive assessment of the text.
|
Yes |
Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
|
|
Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are all the cited references relevant to the research? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Is the research design appropriate? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the methods adequately described? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the results clearly presented? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the conclusions supported by the results? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
Comments and Suggestions for Authors
This study evaluated the impact of crop diversity and irrigation on economic resilience, as well as the trade-offs between increasing the average gross margin and reducing production risk. Two different scenarios were assumed, analyzed, and compared in this study. The comparison of the study with other related studies, as well as the implications of the results should be better discussed. Some detailed suggestions are as follows:
- There is no line number in the manuscript.
Author response: Thanks for the comment. Unfortunately I was not able to insert line numbers in the MDPI template. I see that this complicates the review process. I apologize for the inconvenience.
- Are the major climate changes in Brandenburg warmer mean temperatures and water shortages?
Author response: Climate change in Brandenburg, based on the climate scenarios from two independent climate research institutes is mainly characterized by increasing drought and heat in summer and more precipitation in winter. Some risk factors like hail are not considered in the scenarios. Droughts and heavy rainfall are the main focus of the climate projections. The climate scenarios are discussed in detail in table 1 on page 8 and in the paragraph on page 7. We have added a few sentences to make this clearer.
- Because crop rotation is normally an effective way to diversify crops, is it more important to evaluate the risks of profitable crop rotation using the risk-minimizing model?
Author response: Thank you for pointing this out. There are various aspects of importance here. At different levels, both crop rotations and cropping patterns are considered in the study. By adjusting the crop rotations, the risk can be reduced mainly over the simulated period (30 years), by adapting cropping patterns, the risk can additionally be mitigated in individual years. By using the crop rotations simulated in HERMES, it is possible to consider crop rotation effects e.g. on soil, organic matter, fertilizer requirements, etc. Deriving crop rotation from the economic optimization based on the yield simulated for individual crops make this impossible.
The separate consideration of crop rotations with high-value crops (page 7, crop rotation 5), which are generally the most profitable, tries to take market conditions into account. In real life it is not possible for all farms to cultivate and market these crops. Therefore, an exclusive focus on the most profitable crop rotations would give limited valuable insights for farmers in real life.
- Does agro-environmental zone have the same meaning as agro-ecological zone? If not, please clarify.
Author response: Thank you for pointing this out. That is indeed only a typo and I have adjusted the terms throughout the manuscript to agro-ecological zone.
- Is it possible to clarify that under what specific soil and climate conditions, the risk minimization and profit optimization could be trade-off?
Author response: The map (Figure 3) on page 11 shows the risk management effectiveness specific to the respective climate and soil conditions. The map can give good insights to those who are familiar with the state. Since the results are difficult to interpret for people who do not know the federal state of Brandenburg in detail, we have separately considered three representative counties with the worst and best as well as average soil and climate conditions in Table 3 on the following page. The results show that diversification is most efficient on poorer and moderate soils.
- What Supplementary Materials are provided besides the manuscript, please clarify.
Author response: Thank you very much for the important note. The data sets are too large to provide useful data in an appendix. A further data publication in the context of the new data strategy of our institutes is already in planning.
Author Response File: 
Author Response.docx
Reviewer 2 Report
Manuscript ID: agriculture-2561113
Type: Article
Title: Adapting cropping patterns to climate change: risk management effectiveness of diversification and irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)
Authors: Hannah Jona Von Czettritz *, Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani, Johannes Schuler, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum , Peter Zander
This study evaluated the impact of crop diversity and irrigation on economic resilience, as well as the trade-offs between increasing the average gross margin and reducing production risk. Two different scenarios were assumed, analyzed, and compared in this study. The comparison of the study with other related studies, as well as the implications of the results should be better discussed. Some detailed suggestions are as follows:
1. There is no line number in the manuscript.
2. Are the major climate changes in Brandenburg warmer mean temperatures and water shortages?
3. Because crop rotation is normally an effective way to diversify crops, is it more important to evaluate the risks of profitable crop rotation using the risk-minimizing model?
4. Does agro-environmental zone have the same meaning as agro-ecological zone? If not, please clarify.
5. Is it possible to clarify that under what specific soil and climate conditions, the risk minimization and profit optimization could be trade-off?
6. What Supplementary Materials are provided besides the manuscript, please clarify.
Author Response
Thank you for your reviews. We appreciate the time and effort that you and the other reviewer dedicated to providing feedback on our manuscript and are grateful for the insightful comments on and valuable improvements to our paper. We have incorporated most of the suggestions. Those changes are highlighted within the manuscript. Please see in the below, in blue, for a point-by-point response. All page numbers refer to the revised manuscript file with tracked changes.
Manuscript ID: agriculture-2561113
Reviewers' Comments to the Authors:
Reviewer 1
(x) I would not like to sign my review report
( ) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper
( ) English very difficult to understand/incomprehensible
( ) Extensive editing of English language required
(x) Moderate editing of English language required
( ) Minor editing of English language required
( ) English language fine. No issues detected
|
Yes |
Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
|
|
Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are all the cited references relevant to the research? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Is the research design appropriate? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the methods adequately described? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the results clearly presented? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the conclusions supported by the results? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
Comments and Suggestions for Authors
Several areas of the text need to have typos fixed. I'm not listing all here but a few are:
+ p. 3; change to "... compare to profit optimization on cropping ..."
+ p. 4; change 584.624 to 584,625; change "farmers to have" to "farmers have"
+ p. 10; change "boarders" to "borders"
+ p. 13; change "crops crown ..." to "crops grown ..."
+ p. 14; change "area are used ..." to "area is used ..."
Comments on the Quality of English Language
English is overall not bad but typos need to be taken care of and the authors should go through the flow of all the text from top to bottom about 3-5 times and make appropriate changes.
Author response: Thank you for the feedback and detailed corrections. We have gone through the manuscript again and, in addition to the typos mentioned above, have made small changes throughout the manuscript to improve the reading flow.
While using fixed prices makes the MOTAD model easy to implement, some caveats should be noted as if climate change brings about as much adversity as assumed elsewhere, real prices are going to be increasing.
Author response: Thank you very much! I agree, climate change will not only increase production risks but also affect other factors. Not only output but also input prices are affected and likely to increase. We have expanded the paragraph in the discussion on page 15 accordingly. The focus of the manuscript is on production risks, over market risks, therefore these aspects have not been further elaborated.
Irrigation is implemented under dry conditions but is it not possible that wells won't be able to draw enough irrigation water to irrigate as much as what is prescribed when it is dry for many consecutive years?
Author response: Thank you very much! Yes, (ground) water scarcity is a potential risk that limits irrigation even today. The discussion on page 14-15 briefly discusses this issue. Nevertheless, it is important to consider that the climate scenarios predict more drought in the summer months but also more precipitation in the winter months. Therefore, under the climate projections considered in this study, it is likely that the groundwater level will be recharged over the winter months.
Reviewer 2
Open Review
(x) I would not like to sign my review report
( ) I would like to sign my review report
Quality of English Language
( ) I am not qualified to assess the quality of English in this paper
( ) English very difficult to understand/incomprehensible
( ) Extensive editing of English language required
( ) Moderate editing of English language required
( ) Minor editing of English language required
(x) English language fine. No issues detected
Author response: Thank you for the feedback and the positive assessment of the text.
|
Yes |
Can be improved |
Must be improved |
Not applicable |
|
|
Does the introduction provide sufficient background and include all relevant references? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are all the cited references relevant to the research? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Is the research design appropriate? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the methods adequately described? |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the results clearly presented? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
|
Are the conclusions supported by the results? |
( ) |
(x) |
( ) |
( ) |
Comments and Suggestions for Authors
This study evaluated the impact of crop diversity and irrigation on economic resilience, as well as the trade-offs between increasing the average gross margin and reducing production risk. Two different scenarios were assumed, analyzed, and compared in this study. The comparison of the study with other related studies, as well as the implications of the results should be better discussed. Some detailed suggestions are as follows:
- There is no line number in the manuscript.
Author response: Thanks for the comment. Unfortunately I was not able to insert line numbers in the MDPI template. I see that this complicates the review process. I apologize for the inconvenience.
- Are the major climate changes in Brandenburg warmer mean temperatures and water shortages?
Author response: Climate change in Brandenburg, based on the climate scenarios from two independent climate research institutes is mainly characterized by increasing drought and heat in summer and more precipitation in winter. Some risk factors like hail are not considered in the scenarios. Droughts and heavy rainfall are the main focus of the climate projections. The climate scenarios are discussed in detail in table 1 on page 8 and in the paragraph on page 7. We have added a few sentences to make this clearer.
- Because crop rotation is normally an effective way to diversify crops, is it more important to evaluate the risks of profitable crop rotation using the risk-minimizing model?
Author response: Thank you for pointing this out. There are various aspects of importance here. At different levels, both crop rotations and cropping patterns are considered in the study. By adjusting the crop rotations, the risk can be reduced mainly over the simulated period (30 years), by adapting cropping patterns, the risk can additionally be mitigated in individual years. By using the crop rotations simulated in HERMES, it is possible to consider crop rotation effects e.g. on soil, organic matter, fertilizer requirements, etc. Deriving crop rotation from the economic optimization based on the yield simulated for individual crops make this impossible.
The separate consideration of crop rotations with high-value crops (page 7, crop rotation 5), which are generally the most profitable, tries to take market conditions into account. In real life it is not possible for all farms to cultivate and market these crops. Therefore, an exclusive focus on the most profitable crop rotations would give limited valuable insights for farmers in real life.
- Does agro-environmental zone have the same meaning as agro-ecological zone? If not, please clarify.
Author response: Thank you for pointing this out. That is indeed only a typo and I have adjusted the terms throughout the manuscript to agro-ecological zone.
- Is it possible to clarify that under what specific soil and climate conditions, the risk minimization and profit optimization could be trade-off?
Author response: The map (Figure 3) on page 11 shows the risk management effectiveness specific to the respective climate and soil conditions. The map can give good insights to those who are familiar with the state. Since the results are difficult to interpret for people who do not know the federal state of Brandenburg in detail, we have separately considered three representative counties with the worst and best as well as average soil and climate conditions in Table 3 on the following page. The results show that diversification is most efficient on poorer and moderate soils.
- What Supplementary Materials are provided besides the manuscript, please clarify.
Author response: Thank you very much for the important note. The data sets are too large to provide useful data in an appendix. A further data publication in the context of the new data strategy of our institutes is already in planning.
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
