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Article

COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

1
Department of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
2
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
3
Department of Physics, Prince Faisal Technical College, Amman 11134, Jordan
4
Department of Basic Sciences, Al Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Amman 11733, Jordan
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Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
6
School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Flavia Ferrantelli and Chiara Chiozzini
Vaccines 2021, 9(7), 728; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728
Received: 28 May 2021 / Revised: 23 June 2021 / Accepted: 29 June 2021 / Published: 2 July 2021
In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. View Full-Text
Keywords: linear forecast; white-box model; vaccination; public immunity linear forecast; white-box model; vaccination; public immunity
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MDPI and ACS Style

Hussein, T.; Hammad, M.H.; Fung, P.L.; Al-Kloub, M.; Odeh, I.; Zaidan, M.A.; Wraith, D. COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting. Vaccines 2021, 9, 728. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728

AMA Style

Hussein T, Hammad MH, Fung PL, Al-Kloub M, Odeh I, Zaidan MA, Wraith D. COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting. Vaccines. 2021; 9(7):728. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hussein, Tareq, Mahmoud H. Hammad, Pak L. Fung, Marwan Al-Kloub, Issam Odeh, Martha A. Zaidan, and Darren Wraith. 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting" Vaccines 9, no. 7: 728. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728

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