# Approach Draft to Evaluate the Transport System State—A Case Study Regarding the Estimation Ratio Model of Transport Supply and Demand

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

## 2. Literature Review

## 3. Materials and Methods

#### 3.1. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs)

#### 3.2. Stock and Flow Diagrams

_{0}and the current time t. The value of the stock at time t is the net difference between the inflow and the outflow between time t

_{0}and t plus the initial value of the stock at time t

_{0}. Flow can be determined in various ways, including constants, mathematical functions of stocks and auxiliary variables, and graphical representations. Auxiliary variables combine the illustrated variables, allowing potential corrections or smooth flow control.

#### 3.3. Theory of the Suggested Model

_{0}) represents the initial value of the data-checked population in the model. This simplified submodel of the population stock in time allows for an annual population increase. The ‘inflow’ of the stock displayed as a natural population change reflects the average annual population growth. The degree of the change is as follows:

## 4. Results and Discussion

- Scenario A–The supply and demand trend in the selected modes will be the same as in previous years (reflecting current historical data of measured variables)
- Scenario B–The supply and demand trend in PT will be growing in the subsequent years, calling for a supply increase in means of transport and higher utilization rates. This enhancement involves new lines, purchasing more equipment, and so on, moving the value toward the average daily PT vehicle capacity. On the other side, PT usage rates will mount to 14.5% in 2040 to satisfy the predicted demand (see Table 2).
- Scenario C–We are considering a growing trend in PT, but with a lower value of GDP increase each year (from the current 3.5% annual growth, a drop to the growth of 2.5% on average). The rest of the variable values remain the same as in scenario B.
- Scenario D–We are considering a growing trend in PT, but with a lower value of GDP increase each year (from the current 3.5% annual growth, a drop to the growth of 1.5% on average). The rest of the variable values remain the same as in scenario B.

- quantitative and qualitative data;
- individual indicators (e.g., individual opinions within questionnaire surveys);
- ratio indicators;
- relative indicators.

## 5. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**Depiction of basic relationships and elements in the stock and flow diagram [27].

**Figure 2.**Supply and demand estimation model in CT and PT–first part of the model (source: Authors).

**Figure 3.**Supply and demand estimation model in CT and PT–second part of the model (source: Authors).

**Figure 5.**Regression line describing a correlation between residents’ movability and GDP per capita.

**Figure 6.**Vensim software: graphical depiction of the expected trend of PT rates for residents’ demand for travels.

**Table 1.**Polarity of causal links and graphic illustration [23].

Causal Link | Illustration | Formula |
---|---|---|

Positive (+) | ∂Y/∂X > 0 in the event of propagation $Y={\displaystyle {\int}_{{t}_{0}}^{t}}\left(X+\dots \right)ds+{Y}_{{t}_{0}}$ | |

Negative (−) | ∂Y/∂X < 0 in the event of propagation $Y={\displaystyle {\int}_{{t}_{0}}^{t}}\left(-X+\dots \right)ds+{Y}_{{t}_{0}}$ |

**Table 2.**Input model values for calculating supply and demand ratios for transport [30].

Variables in the SD Model | Input Value–Scenario A | Input Value–Scenario B | Input Value–Scenario C | Input Value–Scenario D | Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

population | 643,630 | 643,630 | 643,630 | 643,630 | residents |

average annual natural population increase | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | % |

average annual natural population migration increase | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | % |

GDP | 281,771 × 10^{6} | 281,771 × 10^{6} | 281,771 × 10^{6} | 281,771 × 10^{6} | CZK |

average annual GDP growth | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | % |

average annual investment rates in transport per GDP | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | % |

average costs of purchasing new means of transport | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | % |

average price of a means of public transport | 8,500,000 | 8,500,000 | 8,500,000 | 8,500,000 | CZK |

total of means of public transport | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | vehicles |

average ratio of decommissioned PT vehicles | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | % |

average daily capacity of means of PT | 300 | 400 | 400 | 400 | passengers/day |

total of registered vehicles | 375,657 | 375,657 | 375,657 | 375,657 | vehicles |

expected annual car growth | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 | % |

car ratio in households | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | % |

average car occupancy rate | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | passengers/cars |

PT rates in the division of transport work | 10.8 upward trend to 12.5 | 10.8 strong upward trend to 13.5 | 10.8 strong upward trend to 13.5 | 10.8 strong upward trend to 13.5 | % |

PCT rates in the division of transport work | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | % |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Bartuska, L.; Stopka, O.; Luptak, V.; Masek, J.
Approach Draft to Evaluate the Transport System State—A Case Study Regarding the Estimation Ratio Model of Transport Supply and Demand. *Appl. Sci.* **2023**, *13*, 4638.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app13074638

**AMA Style**

Bartuska L, Stopka O, Luptak V, Masek J.
Approach Draft to Evaluate the Transport System State—A Case Study Regarding the Estimation Ratio Model of Transport Supply and Demand. *Applied Sciences*. 2023; 13(7):4638.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app13074638

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Bartuska, Ladislav, Ondrej Stopka, Vladimir Luptak, and Jaroslav Masek.
2023. "Approach Draft to Evaluate the Transport System State—A Case Study Regarding the Estimation Ratio Model of Transport Supply and Demand" *Applied Sciences* 13, no. 7: 4638.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app13074638