# Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling

^{1}

^{2}

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## Abstract

**:**

^{2}. Inundation ranging from 2.0 to 5.0 m in depth covers the largest area of approximately 10 km

^{2}and is followed by areas with inundation depths of 1.0–2.0 m and >5.0 m. Our findings show that direct losses will occur, while indirect losses are only approximately 56% that of direct losses. This approach could be applied to other areas and tsunami scenarios, which will aid disaster management and adaptation policies.

## 1. Introduction

#### 1.1. Tsunami Model

#### 1.2. Economic Model

#### 1.3. Objective of this Study

## 2. Materials and Methods

#### 2.1. Tsunami Source Model from Earthquake Fault Scenario

#### 2.2. Tsunami Modeling

#### 2.3. Multi-Regional-Input-Output Table

## 3. Results and Discussion

#### 3.1. Tsunami Flood Map

#### 3.2. Tsunami Economic Losses

## 4. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**Location of Okinawa Island, (

**a**) Study area in the red box and historical earthquakes around Okinawa Island, (

**b**) The observation data on the historical event (1791).

**Figure 3.**The fault scenario around Okinawa Island that was selected to evaluate the tsunami hazard. The study area is in the green box, which is represented by the 90 m grid size for the inundation computation.

**Figure 4.**Economic data in Japan represented by 9 large regions. Economic network based on the 9 regions in Japan and the trade value between regions.

**Figure 5.**Method for constructing the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) table used to estimate the economic losses.

**Figure 6.**Parameters used to construct the MRIO, (

**a**) is the topographical characteristic and (

**b**) is the economic land use type.

**Figure 7.**Initial water level generated by the fault parameter of the earthquake scenario. (

**a**) F1, (

**b**) F2, (

**c**) F3, (

**d**) F4, (

**e**) F5, and (

**f**) F6.

**Figure 8.**Maximum flow depth generated by the fault parameters of the earthquake scenario. (

**a**) F1, (

**b**) F2, (

**c**) F3, (

**d**) F4, (

**e**) F5, and (

**f**) F6.

**Figure 10.**Multi-regional-input-output (MRIO) table originally established from this study and used to estimate the tsunami economic losses in the specific area.

**Figure 11.**Economic losses in each tsunami case, (

**a**) direct economic losses, (

**b**) indirect economic losses.

**Figure 12.**Impact of tsunami losses distributed in any region in Japan. (

**a**) Impact of agriculture in inland areas, (

**b**) impact of urban region in inland areas, (

**c**) impact of agriculture in coastal areas, and (

**d**) impact of urban region in coastal areas.

No | Name | Lat. | Lon. | Width, km | Length, km | Depth, km | Strike, deg. | Dip, deg. | Rake, deg. | Slip, m | Mw |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | F01 | 26.812 | 129.756 | 100 | 50 | 5 | 218 | 12 | 90 | 12 | 8.2 |

2 | F02 | 26.196 | 129.172 | 100 | 50 | 5 | 218 | 12 | 90 | 12 | 8.2 |

3 | F03 * | 25.728 | 128.806 | 100 | 50 | 5 | 225 | 12 | 90 | 12 | 8.2 |

4 | F04 | 25.181 | 128.163 | 100 | 50 | 5 | 225 | 12 | 90 | 12 | 8.2 |

5 | F05 | 27.126 | 127.519 | 130 | 40 | 2 | 225 | 30 | 270 | 8 | 8.1 |

6 | F06 | 27.650 | 128.050 | 130 | 40 | 2 | 225 | 30 | 270 | 8 | 8.1 |

Topography Characteristic | Criteria |
---|---|

Distance from sea | <3.0 km |

Gradient | <7.5 degree |

Altitude | <20 m. MSL |

No | Observed Flow Depth, m | Simulated Flow Depth, m | Different, m |
---|---|---|---|

1 | 1.5 | 1.62 | 0.12 |

2 | 1.5 | 1.70 | 0.20 |

3 | 2.0 | 1.80 | 0.20 |

4 | 11.0 | 6.20 | 4.80 |

Information | Land-Agriculture | Land-Urban | Coast-Agriculture | Coast-Urban |
---|---|---|---|---|

Total interaction, billion USD | 29.7 | 1465.5 | 14.1 | 727.8 |

Value added, billion USD | 59.3 | 2553.6 | 32.8 | 1367.3 |

Total economic value, billion USD | 89.0 | 4019.1 | 46.9 | 2095.1 |

Area, sq.km | 195.4 | 165.1 | 47.1 | 70.9 |

Unit cost, billion USD / sq.km | 0.455 | 24.343 | 0.995 | 29.550 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Pakoksung, K.; Suppasri, A.; Matsubae, K.; Imamura, F. Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling. *Geosciences* **2019**, *9*, 349.
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9080349

**AMA Style**

Pakoksung K, Suppasri A, Matsubae K, Imamura F. Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling. *Geosciences*. 2019; 9(8):349.
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9080349

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Pakoksung, Kwanchai, Anawat Suppasri, Kazuyo Matsubae, and Fumihiko Imamura. 2019. "Estimating Tsunami Economic Losses of Okinawa Island with Multi-Regional-Input-Output Modeling" *Geosciences* 9, no. 8: 349.
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9080349