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Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Space–Temporal Trends of Wet Conditions in the Different Rainy Seasons of Brazilian Northeast by Quantile Regression and Bootstrap Test

1
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas 57072-900, Brazil
2
National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo 12630-000, Brazil
3
Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Paraíba 58429-900, Brazil
4
Department of Rural Engineering, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Alegre, Espírito Santo 29500-000, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2019, 9(11), 457; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9110457
Received: 23 August 2019 / Revised: 18 October 2019 / Accepted: 21 October 2019 / Published: 24 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Natural Hazards)
Drought causes serious social and environmental problems that have great impact on the lives of thousands of people all around the world. The purpose of this research was to investigate the trends in humid conditions in the northeast of Brazil (NEB) in the highest climatic precipitation quarters, November–December–January (NDJ), February–March–April (FMA), and May–June–July (MJJ), through the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considering an alternative statistical approach. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series for the calculation of the SPEI were extracted for the 1794 NEB municipalities between 1980 and 2015 from a grid dataset with a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° using the bilinear interpolation method. The trends and statistical significance of the SPEI were estimated by quantile regression (QR) and the bootstrap test. In NDJ, opposite trends were seen in the eastern NEB (~0.5 SPEI/decade) and in the south (~−0.6 SPEI/decade). In FMA, most of NEB presented negative trends in the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles (~−0.3 SPEI/decade), while in MJJ, most of NEB presented positive trends in all quantiles studied (~0.4 SPEI/decade). The results are consistent with observational analyses of extreme rainfall. View Full-Text
Keywords: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; meteorological drought analysis; quantile trends; bootstrap test standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; meteorological drought analysis; quantile trends; bootstrap test
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da Rocha Júnior, R.L.; dos Santos Silva, F.D.; Lisboa Costa, R.; Barros Gomes, H.; Herdies, D.L.; Rodrigues da Silva, V.P.; Candido Xavier, A. Analysis of the Space–Temporal Trends of Wet Conditions in the Different Rainy Seasons of Brazilian Northeast by Quantile Regression and Bootstrap Test. Geosciences 2019, 9, 457.

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