The tendency of expansive subgrade soil to undergo swelling and shrinkage with the change in moisture has a significant impact on the performance of the pavement. The repeated cycles of wet and dry periods throughout a year lead to considerable stress concentration in the pavement subgrade soil. Such stress concentrations leads to the formation of severe pavement cracks. The objective of the research is to develop a prediction model to estimate the deformation of pavement over expansive subgrade. Two pavement sites—one farm to market road and one state highway—were monitored regularly using moisture and temperature sensors along with rain gauges. Additionally, geophysical testing was performed to obtain a continuous profile of the subgrade soil over time. Topographical surveying and horizontal inclinometer readings were taken to determine pavement deformation. The field monitoring data resulted in a maximum movement up to 80 mm in the farm to market road, and almost 38 mm in the state highway. The field data were statistically evaluated to develop a deformation prediction model. The validation of the model indicated that only a fraction of the deformation was reflected by seasonal variation, while inclusion of rainfall events in the equation significantly improved the model. Furthermore, the prediction model also incorporated the effects of change in temperature and resistivity values. The generated model could find its application in predicting pavement deformation with respect to rainfall at any time of the year.
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