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Geosciences 2018, 8(6), 196; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060196

Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

1
Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
2
Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Surakarta 57162, Indonesia
3
River Basin Processes & Management, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
4
Institute of Applied Geoscience, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 March 2018 / Revised: 6 May 2018 / Accepted: 24 May 2018 / Published: 30 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Volcano Monitoring – Placing the Finger on the Pulse)
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Abstract

As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM) of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate) versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave) of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario. View Full-Text
Keywords: agent-based model; evacuation model; evacuation decision; risk perception model; volcanic hazard; synthetic population; Merapi agent-based model; evacuation model; evacuation decision; risk perception model; volcanic hazard; synthetic population; Merapi
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Jumadi; Heppenstall, A.J.; Malleson, N.S.; Carver, S.J.; Quincey, D.J.; Manville, V.R. Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia. Geosciences 2018, 8, 196.

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