Next Article in Journal
The Influence of Alteration of Aggregates on the Quality of the Concrete: A Case Study from Serpentinites and Andesites from Central Macedonia (North Greece)
Next Article in Special Issue
Validating Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Satellite-Based and Reanalysis Precipitation Products in the Sre Pok Catchment, the Mekong River Basin
Previous Article in Journal
Magnetic Properties of Iron Sand from the Tor River Estuary, Sarmi, Papua
Article Menu
Issue 4 (April) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Geosciences 2018, 8(4), 114;

Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin

Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
Querner Consult, 6709 DA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Department of Civil Engineering, UET Peshawar, Jalozai Campus, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan
Centre for Water Informatics and Technology (WIT), LUMS, Lahore, Pakistan
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 February 2018 / Revised: 15 March 2018 / Accepted: 15 March 2018 / Published: 30 March 2018
PDF [2969 KB, uploaded 3 May 2018]


Devastating floods adversely affect human life and infrastructure. Various regions of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas receive intense monsoon rainfall, which, together with snow and glacier melt, produce intense floods. The Kabul river basin originates from the Hindukush Mountains and is frequently hit by such floods. We analyses flood frequency and intensity in Kabul basin for a contemporary period (1981–2015) and two future periods (i.e., 2031–2050 and 2081–2100) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on four bias-corrected downscaled climate models (INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A, EC-EARTH, and MIROC5). Future floods are modelled with the SWAT hydrological model. The model results suggest an increasing trend due to an increasing precipitation and higher temperatures (based on all climate models except INM-CM4), which accelerates snow and glacier-melt. All of the scenario results show that the current flow with a 1 in 50 year return period is likely to occur more frequently (i.e., 1 in every 9–10 years and 2–3 years, respectively) during the near and far future periods. Such increases in intensity and frequency are likely to adversely affect downstream population and infrastructures. This, therefore, urges for appropriate early precautionary mitigation measures. This study can assist water managers and policy makers in their preparation to adequately plan for and manage flood protection. Its findings are also relevant for other basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas region. View Full-Text
Keywords: Kabul basin; climate-change; GCMs; SWAT model; HEC-SSP; floods Kabul basin; climate-change; GCMs; SWAT model; HEC-SSP; floods

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material


Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Iqbal, M.S.; Dahri, Z.H.; Querner, E.P.; Khan, A.; Hofstra, N. Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin. Geosciences 2018, 8, 114.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Geosciences EISSN 2076-3263 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top