Water Soil Erosion Evaluation in a Small Alpine Catchment Located in Northern Italy: Potential Effects of Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Study Area: The Guerna Catchment
2.2. Empirical Models
2.3. Climate Change Scenarios
- Driving model or Global Climate Model (GCM): a GCM can provide projections of how the earth’s climate may change in the future, on grid cells of around 1000 by 1000 km, and it is based on mathematical descriptions of the governing physical processes of the climate system. A GCM cannot supply an accurate representation of localized extreme events, but it drives the Regional Climate Model (RCM), incorporating the input domain for an RCM [23]. In this analysis, the selected GCM was the ICHEC-EC-EARTH [40].
- Regional Climate Model (RCM): The Regional Climate Model (RCM) is driven by the GCM; it can provide information on much higher spatial resolution because it is applied over a limited area. CORDEX data were calculated using RCM together with the dynamical downscaling technique [22,41]. In this work, the selected RCM was RCA4 (the surface processes of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model), described by the report of [42].
- Domain: a domain is a region where the regional downscaling takes place, and there are 14 different CORDEX domains. The European domain (EURO) covers the whole European continent. In this work, the domain used was EUR-11i, which has a resolution of 0.125 degrees, both in latitude and in longitude [41].
2.4. The Impact of Climate Change: Application of RUSLE Model
2.5. The Impact of Climate Change: Application of EPM Model
2.6. The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use
3. Results
3.1. The Impact of Climate Change According to the RUSLE Model
- RCP 2.6 scenario: R factor = 2460 MJ·mm/(ha·h·year)
- RCP 4.5 scenario: R factor = 1453 MJ·mm/(ha·h·year)
- RCP 8.5 scenario: R factor = 2147 MJ·mm/(ha·h·year)
3.2. The Impact of Climate Change According to the EPM Model
- RCP 2.6 scenario: H = 1300.2 mm/(year)
- RCP 4.5 scenario: H = 1101.1 mm/(year)
- RCP 8.5 scenario: H = 1299.6 mm/(year).
- RCP 2.6 scenario: T = 1.15
- RCP 4.5 scenario: T = 1.18
- RCP 8.5 scenario: T = 1.21.
3.3. Comparison with the Scenario without Climate Change
4. Discussions
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Value |
---|---|
Basin area [km2] | 31 |
Wooded, reforested and forested area [km2] | 20.5 |
Grassland [km2] | 1.64 |
Agricultural area [km2] | 6.00 |
Orchard and vineyard [km2] | 1.07 |
Urban area [km2] | 1.83 |
Bare areas [km2] | 0.05 |
Average hillslope of the catchment area [%] | 51 |
Maximum elevation [m a.s.l.] | 1332 |
Minimum elevation [m a.s.l.] | 185 |
Length of the main channel (Guerna creek) [km] | 12.3 |
Longitudinal average slope of the main channel (Guerna creek) [m/m] | 0.07 |
Mean annual precipitation at Sarnico station (years 2008–2011) 1 [mm] | 1250.6 |
Mean annual temperature at Sarnico station (years 2008–2011) 2 [°C] | 13.9 |
Sample Location of the Study Area | Xsk (%) 1 | fi (%) 2 | Soil Texture | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clay | Silt | Sand | |||
Southern part | 46.68 | 22.90 | 38.48 | 38.62 | Loam |
Northern part | 12.19 | 24.52 | 36.18 | 39.31 | Loam |
Ji-month Coefficient [–] | Erosivity Index Re [MJ·mm·h−1·ha−1] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month | RCP 2.6 Scenario | RCP 4.5 Scenario | RCP 8.5 Scenario | Current Climate | RCP 2.6 Scenario | RCP 4.5 Scenario | RCP 8.5 Scenario |
January | 1.29 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 20.6 | 36 | 14.7 | 13.9 |
February | 1.59 | 1.44 | 1.64 | 43.9 | 123.4 | 98.1 | 131 |
March | 0.95 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 31.3 | 28 | 39.9 | 55.3 |
April | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.81 | 86.1 | 78.1 | 84.8 | 54.9 |
May | 1.37 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 177.7 | 373.9 | 249.9 | 261.2 |
June | 1.23 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 312.3 | 510.8 | 209.1 | 153.8 |
July | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 457.1 | 223.7 | 220.9 | 207.5 |
August | 1.12 | 0.34 | 0.72 | 394.2 | 510.9 | 33.2 | 181.9 |
September | 0.85 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 468.9 | 323 | 243.1 | 597.8 |
October | 0.82 | 0.90 | 1.23 | 98.1 | 63.2 | 77.4 | 157 |
November | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 189.1 | 155.8 | 138.7 | 271.9 |
December | 0.78 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 56.8 | 33 | 43.1 | 61 |
Land Use | C Factor | P Factor |
---|---|---|
Wooded, reforested and forested area | 0.002 | 1 |
Grassland | 0.07 | 1 |
Agricultural area | 0.45 | 1 |
Orchard and vineyard | 0.37 | 0.45 |
Urban area | 0.003 | 1 |
Bare areas | 0.36 | 1 |
Month | Temperature Difference [°C] at Point A | ||
---|---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 Scenario | RCP 4.5 Scenario | RCP 8.5 Scenario | |
January | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.91 |
February | 1.16 | 1.62 | 2.30 |
March | 1.13 | 1.07 | 2.37 |
April | 1.43 | 1.20 | 1.90 |
May | 0.78 | 1.70 | 1.72 |
June | 0.84 | 2.22 | 3.71 |
July | 1.22 | 2.48 | 2.71 |
August | 0.97 | 2.99 | 2.61 |
September | 1.48 | 2.37 | 1.79 |
October | 1.49 | 1.74 | 2.15 |
November | 0.65 | 0.91 | 1.38 |
December | 0.19 | 1.32 | 2.24 |
Coefficient | Maximum Value | Minimum Value | Mean Value |
---|---|---|---|
(land use coefficient) | 0.90 | 0.13 | 0.29 |
(coefficient of soil resistance to erosion) | 2.00 | 0.90 | 1.22 |
(coefficient value for the observed erosion processes) | 0.90 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
Z (coefficient of erosion) | 2.96 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
Future Scenario | A_mean [t/(ha∙Year)] | A_tot [t/(Year)] |
---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | 91.7 | 283,427.5 |
RCP 4.5 | 54.2 | 167,406.6 |
RCP 8.5 | 80.0 | 247,365.4 |
Future Scenario | Wg_mean [m3/(Cell∙Year)] | Wg_tot [m3/(Year)] |
---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | 0.029 | 36,358.0 |
RCP 4.5 | 0.025 | 31,516.0 |
RCP 8.5 | 0.030 | 37,881.5 |
Method | Without Considering Climate Change Scenario | Climate Change Scenario | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
RUSLE [t/year] | 269,141 | 283,428 | 167,407 | 247,365 |
EPM [m3/year] | 34,193 | 36,358 | 31,516 | 37,882 |
Scenario | RUSLE Results (A) [t/(ha∙Year)] | ||
---|---|---|---|
Maximum Value | Mean | Standard Deviation | |
Without climate change | 1706.9 | 87.1 | 203.3 |
RCP 2.6 | 1797.5 | 91.7 | 214.1 |
RCP 4.5 | 1061.7 | 54.2 | 126.4 |
RCP 8.5 | 1568.8 | 80.0 | 186.8 |
Scenario | EPM Results (Wg) [m3/(Cell∙Year)] | ||
---|---|---|---|
Maximum Value | Mean | Standard Deviation | |
Without climate change | 0.606 | 0.028 | 0.040 |
RCP 2.6 | 0.664 | 0.029 | 0.043 |
RCP 4.5 | 0.574 | 0.025 | 0.037 |
RCP 8.5 | 0.686 | 0.031 | 0.045 |
Method | Without Considering Climate Change Scenario | Climate Change Scenario | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
RUSLE [t/year] | 269,141 | 283,428 | 167,407 | 247,365 |
EPM [t/year] | 90,612 | 96,349 | 83,517 | 100,386 |
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Berteni, F.; Grossi, G. Water Soil Erosion Evaluation in a Small Alpine Catchment Located in Northern Italy: Potential Effects of Climate Change. Geosciences 2020, 10, 386. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10100386
Berteni F, Grossi G. Water Soil Erosion Evaluation in a Small Alpine Catchment Located in Northern Italy: Potential Effects of Climate Change. Geosciences. 2020; 10(10):386. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10100386
Chicago/Turabian StyleBerteni, Francesca, and Giovanna Grossi. 2020. "Water Soil Erosion Evaluation in a Small Alpine Catchment Located in Northern Italy: Potential Effects of Climate Change" Geosciences 10, no. 10: 386. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10100386