Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Case Definitions
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Failure to Finish | Pulled Up | Lost Rider | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Level | No. of Starts | No. of Failure to Finish Events | Incidence Rate Ratio a | 95% CI | p-Value b | No. of Pulled up Events | Incidence Rate Ratio a | 95% CI | p-Value b | No. of Lost Rider Events | Incidence Rate Ratio a | 95% CI | p-Value b |
Race Year | 2005/06 | 29,751 | 84 | Ref | 0.921 | 34 | Ref | 0.448 | 34 | Ref | 0.608 | |||
2006/07 | 30,574 | 93 | 1.08 | 0.81–1.46 | 0.599 | 47 | 1.37 | 0.88–2.14 | 0.165 | 26 | 0.75 | 0.45–1.25 | 0.262 | |
2007/08 | 31,276 | 97 | 1.11 | 0.83–1.49 | 0.496 | 42 | 1.22 | 0.77–1.93 | 0.396 | 35 | 0.98 | 0.61–1.57 | 0.917 | |
2008/09 | 33,061 | 95 | 1.03 | 0.76–1.38 | 0.869 | 53 | 1.45 | 0.94–2.26 | 0.094 | 32 | 0.84 | 0.52–1.37 | 0.492 | |
2009/10 | 32,349 | 86 | 0.95 | 0.70–1.28 | 0.730 | 41 | 1.15 | 0.72–1.82 | 0.557 | 27 | 0.73 | 0.44–1.21 | 0.218 | |
2010/11 | 31,605 | 89 | 1.01 | 0.75–1.36 | 0.959 | 52 | 1.48 | 0.96–2.3 | 0.079 | 25 | 0.69 | 0.41–1.17 | 0.17 | |
Season | Spring | 49,620 | 155 | Ref | 0.001 | 79 | Ref | 0.229 | 58 | Ref | 0.002 | |||
Summer | 52,647 | 183 | 1.12 | 0.90–1.38 | 0.320 | 82 | 0.98 | 0.72–1.34 | 0.917 | 65 | 1.06 | 0.74–1.51 | 0.742 | |
Autumn | 48,484 | 106 | 0.7 | 0.55–0.90 | 0.005 | 55 | 0.72 | 0.51–1.01 | 0.06 | 31 | 0.55 | 0.36–0.85 | 0.008 | |
Winter | 37,865 | 100 | 0.84 | 0.65–1.08 | 0.183 | 53 | 0.88 | 0.62–1.25 | 0.468 | 25 | 0.56 | 0.35–0.9 | 0.016 | |
Sex | Female | 84,011 | 252 | Ref | 0.447 | 126 | Ref | 0.522 | 83 | Ref | 0.620 | |||
Male | 104,605 | 292 | 0.94 | 0.79–1.11 | 0.447 | 143 | 0.92 | 0.72–1.18 | 0.522 | 96 | 0.93 | 0.68–1.25 | 0.62 | |
Track Condition | Fast | 5,478 | 19 | Ref | 0.134 | 11 | Ref | 0.462 | 5 | Ref | 0.820 | |||
Good | 73,231 | 227 | 0.9 | 0.56–1.44 | 0.653 | 110 | 0.75 | 0.4–1.4 | 0.369 | 75 | 1.13 | 0.46—2.81 | 0.787 | |
Dead | 44,481 | 125 | 0.81 | 0.50–1.32 | 0.398 | 59 | 0.66 | 0.35–1.26 | 0.208 | 43 | 1.07 | 0.42–2.7 | 0.889 | |
Slow | 32,310 | 72 | 0.64 | 0.39–1.07 | 0.088 | 38 | 0.59 | 0.3–1.15 | 0.12 | 25 | 0.85 | 0.33–2.23 | 0.747 | |
Heavy | 33,116 | 101 | 0.88 | 0.54–1.44 | 0.608 | 51 | 0.76 | 0.4–1.47 | 0.421 | 31 | 1.03 | 0.4–2.65 | 0.952 | |
Age | 2 yo | 6,072 | 19 | Ref | 0.936 | 8 | Ref | 0.098 | 7 | Ref | 0.420 | |||
3 yo | 43,228 | 121 | 0.9 | 0.55–1.46 | 0.656 | 50 | 0.88 | 0.42–1.87 | 0.74 | 48 | 0.97 | 0.44–2.15 | 0.937 | |
4 yo | 56,374 | 168 | 0.96 | 0.59–1.54 | 0.853 | 75 | 1.03 | 0.49–2.15 | 0.94 | 58 | 0.9 | 0.41–1.97 | 0.787 | |
5 yo | 42,439 | 116 | 0.88 | 0.54–1.44 | 0.615 | 63 | 1.17 | 0.56–2.47 | 0.674 | 34 | 0.7 | 0.31–1.58 | 0.387 | |
6 yo+ | 40,503 | 120 | 0.96 | 0.59–1.56 | 0.864 | 73 | 1.45 | 0.69–3.05 | 0.324 | 32 | 0.68 | 0.3–1.55 | 0.361 | |
Apprentice Allowance | No | 144,005 | 398 | Ref | 0.079 | 213 | Ref | 0.279 | 116 | Ref | <0.001 | |||
Yes | 44,611 | 146 | 1.19 | 0.98–1.44 | 0.079 | 56 | 0.85 | 0.63–1.14 | 0.279 | 63 | 1.76 | 1.3–2.4 | <0.001 | |
Race Distance | ≤1200 m | 49,554 | 120 | Ref | 0.002 | 58 | Ref | <0.001 | 47 | Ref | 0.357 | |||
1201–1400 m | 47,914 | 129 | 1.12 | 0.87–1.43 | 0.387 | 47 | 0.84 | 0.57–1.24 | 0.394 | 55 | 1.22 | 0.83–1.81 | 0.314 | |
1401–1670 m | 44,587 | 125 | 1.15 | 0.89–1.48 | 0.293 | 61 | 1.19 | 0.83–1.71 | 0.351 | 36 | 0.86 | 0.55–1.33 | 0.487 | |
1671 m+ | 46,561 | 172 | 1.54 | 1.22–1.95 | <0.001 | 103 | 1.95 | 1.4–2.72 | <0.001 | 41 | 0.93 | 0.61–1.42 | 0.739 | |
Weight Carried | 46–54.5 kg | 55,382 | 180 | Ref | 0.266 | 86 | Ref | 0.582 | 68 | Ref | 0.009 | |||
54.6–55.5 kg | 40,677 | 116 | 0.87 | 0.69–1.10 | 0.261 | 50 | 0.78 | 0.55–1.11 | 0.17 | 46 | 0.92 | 0.63–1.34 | 0.678 | |
55.6–56.9 kg | 38,547 | 103 | 0.82 | 0.64–1.05 | 0.111 | 54 | 0.9 | 0.64–1.26 | 0.538 | 29 | 0.61 | 0.4–0.95 | 0.027 | |
57–76 kg | 54,010 | 145 | 0.82 | 0.66–1.03 | 0.086 | 79 | 0.94 | 0.69–1.28 | 0.686 | 36 | 0.54 | 0.36–0.82 | 0.003 | |
Rating Bands | 50–54 | 46,817 | 176 | Ref | <0.001 | 78 | Ref | 0.129 | 68 | Ref | 0.002 | |||
55–65 | 45,695 | 143 | 0.84 | 0.67–1.04 | 0.115 | 77 | 1.03 | 0.75–1.42 | 0.856 | 38 | 0.57 | 0.38–0.85 | 0.006 | |
66–75 | 57,524 | 130 | 0.61 | 0.48–0.76 | <0.001 | 69 | 0.73 | 0.53–1.02 | 0.066 | 39 | 0.47 | 0.31–0.69 | <0.001 | |
76–85 | 21,639 | 58 | 0.72 | 0.53–0.97 | 0.031 | 27 | 0.77 | 0.49–1.2 | 0.244 | 19 | 0.6 | 0.36–1.01 | 0.053 | |
86–115 | 16,941 | 37 | 0.59 | 0.41–0.85 | 0.004 | 18 | 0.66 | 0.39–1.12 | 0.122 | 15 | 0.62 | 0.35–1.09 | 0.096 | |
Field Size | 3–9 | 43,560 | 99 | Ref | 0.040 | 51 | Ref | 0.362 | 35 | Ref | 0.498 | |||
10–11 | 42,003 | 121 | 1.26 | 0.97–1.65 | 0.086 | 61 | 1.23 | 0.85–1.79 | 0.269 | 42 | 1.24 | 0.79–1.94 | 0.348 | |
12–13 | 45,245 | 149 | 1.44 | 1.12–1.86 | 0.005 | 74 | 1.39 | 0.97–1.98 | 0.074 | 50 | 1.38 | 0.89–2.12 | 0.147 | |
14–18 | 57,808 | 175 | 1.33 | 1.04–1.70 | 0.025 | 83 | 1.22 | 0.86–1.73 | 0.268 | 52 | 1.12 | 0.73–1.72 | 0.604 | |
Barrier | 1–3 | 51,029 | 149 | Ref | 0.772 | 75 | Ref | 0.692 | 49 | Ref | 0.888 | |||
4–6 | 50,625 | 152 | 1.03 | 0.82–1.29 | 0.806 | 75 | 1.01 | 0.73–1.39 | 0.957 | 49 | 1.01 | 0.68–1.5 | 0.956 | |
7–9 | 44,443 | 118 | 0.91 | 0.71–1.16 | 0.441 | 55 | 0.84 | 0.59–1.19 | 0.332 | 38 | 0.89 | 0.58–1.36 | 0.596 | |
10–21 | 42,519 | 125 | 1.01 | 0.79–1.28 | 0.960 | 64 | 1.02 | 0.73–1.43 | 0.904 | 43 | 1.06 | 0.7–1.6 | 0.784 | |
Race Number | 1 | 16,942 | 51 | Ref | 0.266 | 22 | Ref | 0.955 | 13 | Ref | 0.450 | |||
2 | 18,389 | 55 | 1 | 0.68–1.46 | 0.998 | 25 | 1.06 | 0.6–1.89 | 0.837 | 22 | 1.56 | 0.79–3.1 | 0.203 | |
3 | 18,596 | 47 | 0.84 | 0.57–1.26 | 0.405 | 27 | 1.13 | 0.64–1.99 | 0.667 | 15 | 1.05 | 0.5–2.22 | 0.888 | |
4 | 18,840 | 55 | 0.98 | 0.67–1.43 | 0.897 | 23 | 0.95 | 0.53–1.71 | 0.87 | 20 | 1.38 | 0.69–2.78 | 0.364 | |
5 | 19,364 | 51 | 0.88 | 0.60–1.30 | 0.520 | 33 | 1.33 | 0.77–2.28 | 0.302 | 13 | 0.88 | 0.41–1.9 | 0.742 | |
6 | 19,732 | 64 | 1.09 | 0.75–1.58 | 0.647 | 32 | 1.28 | 0.74–2.2 | 0.379 | 21 | 1.4 | 0.7–2.8 | 0.343 | |
7 | 19,925 | 55 | 0.93 | 0.63–1.36 | 0.691 | 25 | 0.98 | 0.55–1.75 | 0.956 | 14 | 0.92 | 0.43–1.96 | 0.833 | |
8 | 20,507 | 59 | 0.97 | 0.66–1.41 | 0.859 | 30 | 1.15 | 0.66–2 | 0.616 | 18 | 1.15 | 0.56–2.36 | 0.698 | |
9 | 17,487 | 54 | 1.04 | 0.71–1.53 | 0.844 | 27 | 1.22 | 0.7–2.16 | 0.482 | 24 | 1.8 | 0.92–3.55 | 0.088 | |
10+ | 18,834 | 53 | 0.95 | 0.64–1.39 | 0.776 | 25 | 1.05 | 0.59–1.87 | 0.866 | 19 | 1.33 | 0.65–2.69 | 0.434 |
Variable | Level | Incidence Rate Ratio | 95% CI | Wald Test p-Value a | LRT p-Value b |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome: Failure to Finish | |||||
Season | Spring | Ref | 0.002 | ||
Summer | 1.08 | 0.87–1.34 | 0.502 | ||
Autumn | 0.7 | 0.55–0.89 | 0.005 | ||
Winter | 0.82 | 0.63–1.05 | 0.117 | ||
Race Distance | ≤1200 m | Ref | <0.001 | ||
1201–1400 m | 1.18 | 0.92–1.51 | 0.198 | ||
1401–1670 m | 1.24 | 0.96–1.60 | 0.102 | ||
1671 m+ | 1.73 | 1.36–2.20 | <0.001 | ||
Rating Bands | 50–54 | Ref | |||
55–65 | 0.79 | 0.63–0.99 | 0.042 | <0.001 | |
66–75 | 0.56 | 0.44–0.70 | <0.001 | ||
76–85 | 0.65 | 0.48–0.88 | 0.005 | ||
86–115 | 0.53 | 0.37–0.76 | 0.001 | ||
Horse c | 0.017 | ||||
Outcome: Pulled Up | |||||
Race Distance | ≤1200 m | Ref | <0.001 | ||
1201–1400 m | 0.88 | 0.60–1.29 | 0.517 | ||
1401–1670 m | 1.26 | 0.87–1.81 | 0.218 | ||
1671 m+ | 2.14 | 1.53–3.00 | <0.001 | ||
Rating Bands | 50–54 | Ref | 0.019 | ||
55–65 | 0.94 | 0.69–1.31 | 0.722 | ||
66–75 | 0.64 | 0.46–0.90 | 0.010 | ||
76–85 | 0.65 | 0.42–1.03 | 0.064 | ||
86–115 | 0.56 | 0.33–0.95 | 0.033 | ||
Horse d | 0.009 | ||||
Outcome: Lost Rider | |||||
Season | Spring | Ref | <0.001 | ||
Summer | 1.08 | 0.76–1.54 | 0.678 | ||
Autumn | 0.56 | 0.36–0.87 | 0.009 | ||
Winter | 0.54 | 0.34–0.87 | 0.011 | ||
Apprentice Allowance | No | Ref | <0.001 | ||
Yes | 1.78 | 1.30–2.43 | <0.001 | ||
Rating Bands | 50–54 | Ref | 0.004 | ||
55–65 | 0.59 | 0.39–0.87 | 0.009 | ||
66–75 | 0.48 | 0.32–0.71 | <0.001 | ||
76–85 | 0.61 | 0.36–1.02 | 0.058 | ||
86–115 | 0.65 | 0.37–1.16 | 0.145 | ||
Horse e | 0.005 |
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Tanner, J.; Rogers, C.; Bolwell, C.; Cogger, N.; Gee, E.; Mcllwraith, W. Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand. Animals 2016, 6, 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani6060036
Tanner J, Rogers C, Bolwell C, Cogger N, Gee E, Mcllwraith W. Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand. Animals. 2016; 6(6):36. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani6060036
Chicago/Turabian StyleTanner, Jasmine, Chris Rogers, Charlotte Bolwell, Naomi Cogger, Erica Gee, and Wayne Mcllwraith. 2016. "Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand" Animals 6, no. 6: 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani6060036
APA StyleTanner, J., Rogers, C., Bolwell, C., Cogger, N., Gee, E., & Mcllwraith, W. (2016). Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand. Animals, 6(6), 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani6060036