Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
Data Analysis
2.2. Models
3. Results
- count = region + education + gender + against
- + place + offset(log(population)),
- count = education + gender + against
- + place + offset(log(population)),
4. Conclusions
5. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Region | Abbreviation | Population |
---|---|---|
Tarapacá | TA | 330,558 |
Antofagasta | AN | 607,534 |
Atacama | AT | 286,168 |
Coquimbo | CO | 757,586 |
Valparaíso | VA | 1,815,902 |
Libertador General Bernardo O’Higgins | LI | 914,555 |
Maule | ML | 1,044,950 |
Biobío | BI | 1,556,805 |
La Araucanía | AR | 957,224 |
Los Lagos | LL | 828,708 |
Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo | AI | 103,158 |
Magallanes y de la Antártica Chilena | MA | 166,533 |
Metropolitana de Santiago | MR | 7,112,808 |
Los Ríos | LR | 384,837 |
Arica y Parinacota | AP | 226,068 |
Ñuble | NB | 480,609 |
Categories | Count | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Public road | 75,887 | 28.32 |
Supermarkets | 75,303 | 28.10 |
Commercial premises | 67,581 | 25.22 |
Private home | 20,626 | 7.70 |
Crime | Count |
---|---|
Homicide | 500 |
Injuries | 44,534 |
Robbery with intimidation | 14,915 |
Robbery with violence | 6552 |
Robbery by surprise | 10,807 |
Rape | 14,336 |
Thefts | 143,330 |
Other robbery with force | 2565 |
Vehicle theft | 1814 |
Burglary in an inhabited place | 7182 |
Burglary in a non-inhabited place | 16,815 |
Theft of or from a vehicle | 2941 |
Variable | Categories | Count |
---|---|---|
Gender | Woman | 73,504 |
Man | 194,830 | |
Education | Illiterate | 412 |
Basic | 53,642 | |
Secondary | 163,899 | |
Higher | 13,084 | |
Year | 2015 | 56,559 |
2016 | 51,640 | |
2017 | 51,232 | |
2018 | 52,463 | |
2019 | 56,628 |
Year | Education | Gender | Against | Place | Region | Count | Population |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | Basic | Women | People | Public road | TA | 0 | 330,558 |
2015 | Secondary | Women | People | Public road | TA | 0 | 330,558 |
2015 | Higher | Women | People | Public road | TA | 0 | 330,558 |
2015 | Basic | Men | People | Public road | TA | 1 | 330,558 |
2015 | Secondary | Men | People | Public road | TA | 2 | 330,558 |
2015 | Higher | Men | People | Public road | TA | 0 | 330,558 |
⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ | ⋯ |
2015 | Basic | Men | People | Supermarkets | ML | 0 | 1,044,950 |
2015 | Secondary | Men | People | Supermarkets | ML | 8 | 1,044,950 |
2015 | Higher | Men | People | Supermarkets | ML | 0 | 1,044,950 |
2015 | Basic | Women | Property | Supermarkets | ML | 2 | 1,044,950 |
2015 | Secondary | Women | Property | Supermarkets | ML | 2 | 1,044,950 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Coefficient | exp (Coef) | p-Value | Coefficient | exp (Coef) | p-Value |
Secondary | 1.2689 | 1.1867 | 3.2763 | 0.0000 * | ||
Higher | −0.9797 | 0.3754 | 0.0000 * | −0.8376 | 0.4327 | 0.0000 * |
Men | 1.1532 | 3.1683 | 0.0000 * | 0.9990 | 2.7156 | 0.0000 * |
Against property | 1.0369 | 2.8205 | 0.0000 * | 1.0011 | 2.7213 | 0.0000 * |
Supermarkets | −0.5142 | 0.5980 | 0.0002 * | −0.5593 | 0.5716 | 0.0002 * |
Commercial premises | −0.3136 | 0.7308 | 0.0207 * | −0.3287 | 0.7199 | 0.0251 * |
Private home | −1.5617 | 0.2098 | 0.0000 * | −1.4845 | 0.2266 | 0.0000 * |
regionAN | 0.0583 | 1.0600 | 0.8434 | |||
regionAT | −0.0278 | 0.9726 | 0.9306 | |||
regionCO | 0.6552 | 1.9255 | 0.0199 * | |||
regionVA | 1.4357 | 4.2026 | 0.0000 * | |||
regionLI | 1.1822 | 3.2615 | 0.0000 * | |||
regionML | 0.3639 | 1.4389 | 0.1955 | |||
regionBI | 0.4358 | 1.5462 | 0.1147 | |||
regionAR | 0.4264 | 1.5317 | 0.1298 | |||
regionLL | −0.3629 | 0.6957 | 0.2228 | |||
regionAI | −0.8638 | 0.4216 | 0.0594 * | |||
regionMA | −1.2630 | 0.2828 | 0.0048 * | |||
regionLR | 0.1022 | 1.1076 | 0.7380 | |||
regionAP | −0.4781 | 0.6200 | 0.1754 | |||
regionNB | 0.1621 | 1.1760 | 0.5867 | |||
LogLik | −1282 | −1350 | ||||
AIC | 2609.68 | 2718.30 | ||||
R2 | 0.4894 | 0.3986 |
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Cadena-Urzúa, P.; Guardiola, J.; Iftimi, A.; Montes, F. Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile. Soc. Sci. 2024, 13, 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13070370
Cadena-Urzúa P, Guardiola J, Iftimi A, Montes F. Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile. Social Sciences. 2024; 13(7):370. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13070370
Chicago/Turabian StyleCadena-Urzúa, Pablo, Javier Guardiola, Adina Iftimi, and Francisco Montes. 2024. "Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile" Social Sciences 13, no. 7: 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13070370
APA StyleCadena-Urzúa, P., Guardiola, J., Iftimi, A., & Montes, F. (2024). Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile. Social Sciences, 13(7), 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13070370