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Article

Hospitality and Tourism Demand: Exploring Industry Shifts, Themes, and Trends

by
Carlos Sampaio
1,2,
João Renato Sebastião
1,3,* and
Luís Farinha
1,2
1
Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Polytechnic University, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal
2
NECE-UBI (Research Centre for Business Sciences), Universidade da Beira Interior, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal
3
CISeD-Research Centre in Digital Services, Instituto Politécnico de Viseu, 3504-510 Viseu, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Societies 2024, 14(10), 207; https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14100207
Submission received: 2 May 2024 / Revised: 24 June 2024 / Accepted: 15 October 2024 / Published: 17 October 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tourism, Urban Culture and Local Development)
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Abstract

:
Tourism demand is critical for the hospitality industry and is influenced by a set of continuously changing factors. The tourism and hospitality industries play a critical role in many regions and countries, supporting the local economy, providing employment, and fostering economic and social development with effects across multiple industries. This study aims to analyse the nature of tourism and hotel demand through a thematic analysis. By conducting a review of the existing literature published over the period of 2018–2023, this research identifies overarching patterns, trends, and themes characterising the current research landscape. Research results reveal significant insights into market trends and strategic industry shifts. It particularly emphasises areas such as customer demand forecasting, technology integration, and sustainability, which are crucial for understanding demand fluctuations. The findings offer insights into the theoretical foundations of tourism and hotel demand and provide practical implications for industry stakeholders aiming to strategise effectively in a dynamic market.

1. Introduction

As the hospitality industry seeks to provide superior service and ensure guest satisfaction, several factors affect companies. Hospitality firms are characterised by a wide range of services, including accommodation, food and beverage operations, and additional services such as transportation, entertainment, and recreation. Companies within the hospitality sector, despite providing similar services are not homogeneous. However, there are a set of similar traits that are present in hotels in general: companies operate 24 h a day, seven days a week; are both a production and services industry, with production and sales combined in the same place; combine a wide range of operations that require a high degree of coordination; require many different skills from staff, but have also a high number of unskilled staff; services are provided directly to guests, but they leave the premise without any tangible product; and have a high fixed cost, a fixed rate, but depend on a fluctuating demand, many times seasonal and unpredictable [1], as crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic showed.
The hospitality sector is a major contributor to the global economy. It generates revenue, creates jobs, and stimulates economic growth in regions where it operates. However, hotels, and other companies within the sector, are highly dependent on tourism demand, while factors affecting tourism demand can either cause harm or increase the flow of potential guests. The tourism industry is highly sensitive to changes and tourists are risk-averse [2,3]. They take their decisions regarding where to travel carefully, once perceived threats to their safety, health, or security are considered seriously in their decisions. Tourism demand depends on the perceptions about a tourist destination and how tourists assess that destination. Tourists tend to travel to less dangerous destinations [4] as the Arab Spring showed, through a reduction in the flow of tourists in the regions affected and in adjacent countries. However, the reduced demand in those places led to a tourist diversion to outer countries [5], negatively influencing the demand for tourism-related services such as those provided by the hospitality industry within the former countries, and increasing the flow of guests to hotels in the latter, which are perceived as more secure countries.
The positive effect of the tourism industry and tourism demand on societies is observed through its economic contributions. The tourism industry is a significant economic driver in many regions, by generating revenue and jobs, stimulating local economies, and fostering societal well-being. In 2023, the industry contributed to 3% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and an estimated total export revenues of USD 1.6 trillion [6]. Nevertheless, the tourist sector is not confined to a specific economic sector. It encompasses a wide set of economic and social activities generally seen on a global scale, including goods and services from various economic sectors [7]. The hospitality industry is among the relevant industries within the tourism industry, on which the sector depends. The hospitality industry contributes heavily to the role of the tourism industry within the economy, providing a set of services that tourists are counting on, such as accommodation, food, transportation, or entertainment. The overall set of services provided serves as a catalyst for region development, through factors such as job creation. However, the tourism industry, in a broader sense, as well as the hospitality industry, are also dependent on the idiosyncrasies of places visited. Hence, factors affecting tourism demand are critical to implementing tourism and hospitality policies and achieving efficiency in the tourism and hospitality industries globally [8].
Factors affecting tourism demand as well as hospitality industry demand vary. Yet, tourism demand impacts the hospitality industry’s demand, as fewer visitors imply fewer potential clients for hospitality companies. For instance, a place or region’s perceived risk affects the flow of tourists to that place or region [9,10,11,12], and factors such as GDP per capita, real exchange rate, population, and trade openness also affect the flow of tourists [13]. Additionally, the hospitality industry affects a place or region’s tourism demand, particularly through prices [14,15], and the lack of services provided by hospitality firms would also affect tourism demand.
Following the argument regarding the interrelations between tourism demand and hospitality industry demand, this study seeks to examine the intricacies of tourism demand and hotel industry demand, and how they interact with each other. Both tourism and hospitality industries have a major impact in supporting a region’s, country’s, and place’s economy, where a decline in the number of visitors can cause severe economic stress, as recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or war and terrorism have shown. Furthermore, demand analysis in tourism and hospitality supports optimal resource allocation due to demand fluctuation, helps marketing and business managers plan offers and operations, and enables firms and policy makers to address the environmental and cultural impacts of tourism, managing crises, and investment decisions. Consequently, to accomplish the proposed objective, this study uses a content analysis technique that, based on an automated co-word analysis, seeks to explore and understand the conceptual structure of tourism and hospitality demand and how the research stream evolved over the recent periods of global turmoil such as the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, economic crisis, and war. This paper further aims to provide an interpretation of how the conceptual structure interrelates and delivers guidance for practitioners, companies, and academics. The previous literature employing thematic analysis in tourism and hospitality demand addressed specific arguments such as crisis management [16], human resources [17], or online comments [18]. However, a search targeting specifically tourism demand and hospitality demand yielded no results.
This study includes five sections. Section 2 presents a literature review concerning tourism demand and hospitality industry demand, and Section 3 presents the study methodology. Results are shown in Section 4 and Section 5 presents the results discussion and main conclusions.

2. Literature Review

Demand variability in the tourism industry depends on trust from tourists, as recent events have shown, including pandemics, war, and terrorism. These events cause severe harm to tourist flow and risk the overall industries within the tourism sector. The sustainability of places, including the environmental effects of the tourism industry [19], terrorism as a source of insecurity [4], and crime affect tourism demand, since tourists perceiving potential risk may consider not visiting a place again and advise friends and relatives about that place [20,21].
Relevant theories within the tourism and hospitality demand literature involve aspects such as economic and socio-psychological factors, including income and prices, motivations and destination choices [22], consumer choice theory, addressing consumer decision-making processes, budget constraints, characteristics of destination [23], like stereotypes and prejudices [24], non-economic determinants like cultural background [25], and structural changes in market dynamics, driven by economic trends such as change in consumer spending, preferences, and rising incomes [26]. Furthermore, previous research showed that demand variability in the tourism industry witnessed relevant fluctuations due to external events in the industry. The 11 September 2001 terrorist attack in the US drove tourism demand to a downturn [27]. The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had similar effects [4]; the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak [28], first detected in 2012, and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which affected countries such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Seychelles, Thailand, and Somalia [29], showed how tourism industry demand is sensitive to external factors, and the COVID-19 pandemic emphasised it [30,31]. However, tourism and hospitality demand depend on further issues than tourist security risks.
Financial risk is also among the relevant factors considered by tourists when deciding to travel. The 2007–2008 global financial crisis, for instance, caused a severe downturn in the tourism industry [32,33]. Due to the economic consequences of the crisis, including unemployment and a decrease in purchasing power, the industry observed a decrease in tourist flow [34]. These types of crises reduced customers’ purchasing power for tourist services, causing major challenges to the sector [35,36], with a critical impact on the employment, opportunities, and income of tourism employees, and disparate effects on tourism industries [37].
Tourism demand is critical to the hospitality industry as the number of guests, among other aspects, depends on the number of tourists visiting a place. The specificities of the hospitality industry put it among the ones more at risk of being hit by the factors influencing the tourism industry, despite some previous evidence showing the resilience of hotels and restaurants facing crises, particularly financial crises. When comparing these companies with the remaining tourism sector [37], the industry is not immune to the consequences of consumer assessment of risk, neither to pressure or guidance from regulatory entities, nor mandatory measures targeting customers and general public safety, as the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated.
The hospitality sector presents traits that make it prone to demand fluctuation. Among them, customer trust, economic crises, and safety are critical. However, they are mostly out of the control of hospitality firms. Conversely, other aspects such as cleanliness [38,39,40,41,42], prices [39,43,44,45], perceived quality [44], convenient location, service quality, reputation, and friendliness of staff [41] can be addressed by companies, individually, and are capable of making a relevant influence of firms’ demand.
The previous literature addressing hospitality firms’ demand was focused on topics ranging from internal and external aspects of the industry. From an external standpoint, environmental and policy factors, including climate change and uncertainty [46], the influence of environmental policies, and sustainability concerns of the industry [47], as well as the impact of natural disasters [48], were highlighted in the literature. In recent years, the literature addressing hospitality demand, presented an emphasis on economic instability, fostered by the most recent pandemic and war, the impact of global events, geopolitical tensions, and crises such as the Russia–Ukraine war [49]. However, the adaptation of companies during the COVID-19 pandemic [50], particularly through service innovation, emphasised the importance of demand to the hospitality industry and how these events affect demand forecasting [51].
The effect of consumer behaviour on hospitality companies’ demand has been addressed from various perspectives, including an economic approach [52], clients’ consumption patterns [53], and authentic experiences [54]. Economic instability factors impact and its effect on revenue management due to demand [55], including trends and individual financial circumstances, namely household income and prices [53], have also been emphasised. However, hospitality demand and consumer behaviour also depend on firms’ innovation and on services provided to customers, marketing, and branding strategies towards competitiveness to meet customer needs, in which creative marketing and innovative branding [56] play a relevant role. Yet, customers decide where to stay based on further aspects and are not immune to pricing strategy, which plays a great deal in demand modelling to forecast and optimise hotel performance [57]. In fact, the relevance of forecasting hotel demand has gained relevance in the literature through machine learning, technology, and big data [58,59,60].
Among the main characteristics of service provided by hospitality firms is the quality of personnel. Employees play a critical role in providing superior value to customers. Nevertheless, the industry usually suffers from a shortage of skilled personnel and needs adequate educational programs aligned with the industry requirements, which can be solved through the development of hospitality, as well as tourism management programs [61]. Qualified managers [62] are likewise critical to addressing the idiosyncrasies affecting hospitality companies’ demand.
Therefore, the effects of tourism demand and hospitality demand on societies are critical and usually observed from several scopes including economic contributions and employment, social development and cultural exchange, impact on local communities, effects on sustainable development, and social responsibility.

3. Methodology

This study seeks to explore how tourism demand and hospitality industry demand interact using a thematic analysis of the scientific literature published over the period of 2018–2023. This period was chosen due to the global turmoil brought by recent crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, including war, disruption in global supply chains, high inflation, and economic pressure on consumers and companies.
To conduct the thematic analysis, a co-word analysis was used. This method, which is a content analysis technique [63], is used to analyse the content of a large number of documents. It seeks to create a measure of similarity to represent the content and conceptual spectrum of the research field [64]. Based on the literature published over a defined period of time, the procedure connects characters over time to provide a clear picture of how tourism demand and hospitality sector demand evolved and the development of the research stream [65].
According to Callon et al. [63], the co-occurrence of keywords reveals patterns of collaboration and conceptual evolution within a specific research field. It is through a co-word analysis that co-occurrences are studied, allowing for the identification of clusters of words that define themes of interest within the broader research field. Subsequent studies further highlight the importance of classifying clusters, which we will later call themes, in terms of density and centrality.
Density is a measure of the cohesion among keywords, quantifying the internal connections, and indicating how closely related the concepts within the cluster are. A high-density value suggests a well-consolidated research subfield, with a solid theoretical foundation and intensive research. On the other hand, centrality refers to the importance of a cluster in the overall context of the network of clusters, representing its role as a bridge between different study areas. A cluster with high centrality is crucial for the integration of knowledge in the field, indicating a theme or a research area that interconnects with various subfields.
To apply this methodology to the study of tourist and hotel demand, the period from 2018 to 2023 was split into independent two-year temporal windows. This approach highlights the evolution of research over time, identifying the emergence, development, and decline of subthemes. Each temporal window provides a snapshot of research trends during that period, starting in 2018–2019 and ending in 2022–2023. The temporal definition of the windows aimed to analyse a pre-COVID-19 period, a period coinciding with the pandemic, and, finally, the period considered current (2022–2023).
The identification and analysis of the clusters are based on the selection of the 50 keywords with the highest occurrence, with a lower limit of at least 20, ensuring that only the most relevant and consistent themes are considered [64].
According to Cobo et al. [66], the intersection of the concepts of density and centrality becomes particularly relevant when visualised through Strategic Maps. These maps are two-dimensional representations, where each dimension reflects the centrality and density of the clusters. The spatial arrangement reveals their importance and maturity within the research field, allowing for a detailed assessment based on the following four distinct quadrants:
  • Themes with high centrality and high density (Motor Themes): This quadrant identifies themes or subfields of research that are well developed and recognised by the scientific community. They are considered to be engines and influential, having many internal connections (indicating cohesion) and connections with other clusters (indicating impact on the broader field of study);
  • Themes with high centrality and low density (Basic Themes): Themes in this quadrant are important to the field because they act as bridges between different areas of research. However, they are not as cohesive internally, indicating more dispersed themes or themes in the phase of consolidation;
  • Themes with low centrality and high density (Niche Themes): Here, the themes represent highly specialised and cohesive areas of research but have less impact or fewer connections with the broader field of research. They are considered Niche Themes with potential for growth;
  • Themes with low centrality and low density (Emerging or Declining Themes): In this quadrant are themes that are internally fragmented and isolated from the rest of the research field. They may represent emerging areas that have not yet established strong connections with the broader research field. They tend to evolve into the other quadrants or disappear.
The information source chosen was the Web of Science (WoS) database, due to its breadth and coverage of reliable metrics that ensure the validity and robustness of the results achieved in many bibliometric studies [67,68], contributing decisively to the progress of scientific knowledge. The data collection was carried out on 17 January 2024, using the following customised search rule: (TS = (demand AND (Hotel* OR Touris*))) AND (LA = (“ENGLISH”)). The documents were analysed in the R Statistical Software (v4.3.1) [69] through the bibliometrix package, which enabled the creation of strategic maps essential for analysing the research field.

4. Results

Scientific research published in reference databases has unparalleled relevance in characterising a research field. One possible way to study a research field is through co-word analysis [63], which aims to identify trends and emerging areas. This section presents the main results of the thematic analysis conducted.
Data used in the analysis, as mentioned within the Section 3, were retrieved from the WoS database. A total of 6521 documents were analysed, including all types of documents published within the database over the period of 2018–2023 in 1996 sources. Over the year 2018, 842 documents were published, with 945 in 2019, 1028 in 2020, 1186 in 2021, 1320 in 2022, and 1200 in 2023.
The thematic analysis follows a retrospective approach, i.e., it starts with the most recent period of 2022–2023, followed by 2020–2021, and, finally, 2018–2019.
Figure 1 shows the thematic map of the period of 2022–2023.
The time frame covering the years 2022 to 2023 was characterised by the strategic map presented in Figure 1, where five relevant themes are identified: “COVID-19”, “demand forecast”, “sustainability”, and “tourism demand”, each with its own peculiarities when considering their position in the specific quadrants of the map.
Departing from the themes present in Figure 1, the following tables evaluate the specificities of each one, starting with Table 1, depicting the themes included in cluster COVID-19.
The theme “COVID-19”, which includes terms such as “COVID-19”, “Airbnb”, “domestic tourism”, “tourism industry”, “seasonality”, and “big data”, listed in Table 1, reflects a convergence of factors in the tourist and hotel demand for the period 2022 to 2023, signaling an adaptation of the sector to changes in consumer behaviour and post-pandemic challenges, with a focus on flexibility, technology, and sustainability. It also indicates the growing importance of predictive and strategic analyses to anticipate trends and foster a resilient recovery adapted to new market dynamics. Being classified as a Motor Theme guarantees its cross-sectional relevance within the scope of research and promotes its continuous internal development.
Despite being in a post-pandemic recovery phase, this theme remains a central element in the study context, having evolved from an “Emerging” classification in the 2020–2021 period, in which it only included the terms “COVID-19” and “climate change”. In this 2020–2021 period, the prevalence of the term “COVID-19” underscores the immediate impact the pandemic had on practices and policies in tourism and hospitality, sectors faced with unprecedented challenges resulting in a profound change in demand. The emergence of the term “climate change” in the same period points to a recognition of the relationship between tourism activities and their environmental impacts, gaining increased relevance in the pandemic context. The relationship between the pandemic and climate change may be justified in terms of how changes in travel patterns and the decrease in tourism activity affected the environment, allowing, albeit forced, a pause, which some regions took advantage of to implement more sustainable practices, or even in terms of the absence of travellers.
Concerning the cluster sustainability, Table 2 presents the evolution of this cluster over the analysis period.
The Basic Theme of sustainability (Table 2) can be seen as a competitive advantage, as the development of sustainable practices may directly respond to the increasingly environmentally conscious market demands. The concepts such as sustainable tourism, rural tourism, ecotourism, climate change, and sustainable development seem to justify the coexistence between the tourism economy and the vitality of ecosystems and local communities. Therefore, in the broader context of this study, the theme represents the transition to business models that value eco-efficiency, resource conservation, social inclusion, and a positive contribution to combating climate change. Such practices are expected not just as an aid to the sector’s economic recovery but also to ensure its viability and resilience.
It is noteworthy that, in the previous period, sustainability was classified as a “Motor” Theme, that is, more developed than considered in the current period. While in the initial period of the pandemic, the focus was on the immediate adaptation to new forms of tourism that could thrive despite travel restrictions, the subsequent period shows a strategic redirection towards integrating sustainability into long-term development practices.
The cluster demand forecast is depicted in Table 3.
The theme “demand forecast” over the period of 2020–2023 presented an evolution influenced both by the economy and the consequent change in consumer behaviour. During the pandemic period of 2020–2021, the “demand forecast” theme included terms like “demand forecast”, “machine learning”, “revenue management”, “big data”, and “hospitality”. In this period, hospitality emerged as a critical dimension, reflecting a sector struggling to maintain the essence of its offering in the face of restrictions and the need to ensure customer safety. Forecasting methods, associated with machine learning and big data, have been recognised, both in pandemic and post-pandemic periods, as fundamental in supporting and assisting decision-making, even in environments of uncertainty and constant change. As we enter the post-pandemic years of 2022–2023, “hospitality” is no longer a keyword in the discussion. This may indicate a transition to a more specific goal related to economic recovery, where the priority shifts to operational optimisation aimed at maximising revenue. Forecasting tools thus become essential to respond to new consumption patterns that are still stabilising after the pandemic as well as to provide guidance regarding the tourist and hospitality demand.
Thus, “demand forecast” transitions from an emerging state during the pandemic, focused on adaptation and hospitality, to a niche phase in the economic recovery period, where the emphasis is on analytical precision and revenue management. This evolution reflects a sector that initially focused on adaptive responses to survive the crisis and subsequently adopted a more strategic and data-driven stance to thrive in a changing market.
Table 4 presents the tourism demand cluster and its evolution over the analysed period.
The theme “tourism demand” was the only one among those identified in the current period that evolved as a relevant theme from the 2018–2019 period (Table 4). In the pre-pandemic period, it included terms that evolved into different themes, such as “seasonality”, which, in the current period, is part of the “COVID-19” theme. Also, “demand forecast,” “revenue management”, and “big data” have evolved into the current “demand forecast” theme. Overall, there seems to be a thematic separation of “tourism demand”; on the one hand, the term evolved into “demand forecast”, and on the other hand, continued the line of research focusing on economic growth and general tourist demand. It is noteworthy that the area that remained true to the original theme is now classified as “Emerging or declining”, which may suggest a waning interest in researching these concepts as a relevant theme.
Figure 2 depicts the thematic map from the period of 2018–2019, which highlights, excluding the absence of the cluster COVID-19, similar topics as presented in the following period.
Figure 2 presents the themes that stood out in the pre-pandemic period. Results emphasise that “climate change”, classified as “Emerging or declining”, was entirely absorbed by the subsequent theme of “sustainability”. “Sharing economy”, which, besides the term that classifies it, also contained “Airbnb”, was absorbed by the theme “COVID-19” in the current period. Additionally, “ecotourism” evolved into the theme of “sustainability” in the current period.
Overall, to summarise the findings, the study of the research field on tourist and hotel demand revealed an evolution marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the pre-pandemic period characterised by themes such as “tourism demand” and “climate change”. During the pandemic period, the sector had to adapt quickly, highlighting the “demand forecast” and the response to “COVID-19”, reflecting changes in consumer behaviour and a push towards more sustainable practices. In the post-pandemic period, sustainability emerged as a central theme, indicating a transition to eco-efficient business practices and the integration of technology as a key element in the sector’s recovery and adaptation. Interestingly, despite the emergence of a crescent turmoil in the aftermath of the pandemic, the effects of these tensions, with a few exceptions, seem to be relatively absent from the literature.

5. Discussion and Conclusions

This study carried out a literature review focusing on scientific publications from the Web of Science database between 2018 and 2023, which sought to identify patterns and trends that characterise the evolution of this research stream and to reveal the current state of the art in this field of knowledge.
Offering a theoretical vision associated with demand in the hotel and tourism sector, the thematic analysis reveals relevant insights into market trends over the analysed periods, leading us to a reflection exercise on the fluctuation of demand. The digital transition, with the corresponding integration of technology, the green transition, and the underlying focus on environmental sustainability, or even social balance and political and economic stability, require decision-makers to create efficient and effective strategies in the context of a highly dynamic market.
It must be emphasised that both tourism and hospitality make an important contribution to the economic prosperity of economies, whether at a macro (country), meso (regional), or micro (local) level. From this perspective, a drastic reduction in consumption or the number of visitors will not only cause serious economic tensions, but also losses in terms of wealth creation, employability, and quality of life in the territories [37].
In this line of thinking, over the years, global crises represented points of materialised threats to the tourism industry demand and the hospitality sector. Crises such as the 2007–2008 global financial crises created the economic setup that led to a reduction in tourist demand. Particularly in the Western hemisphere, people who used to travel drastically reduced their consumption of tourist services, with consequences on the demand in tourist industries [32,33,34]. On the other hand, diseases such as the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) [4], the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak [28], and the 11 September 2001 terrorist attack in the US [27] had similar effects, driving the tourism demand to a downturn.
Despite the previous crises affecting tourism and hospitality demand, recent events, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, which led the World Health Organization (WHO) to classify the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and, on 11 March 2020, to determine the classification of the pandemic, put the industry in an unprecedented situation [30,31]. Over more than two years, the tourism industry was halted due to the consequences of the pandemic. Hence, the literature on tourism and hospitality demand was mostly focused on the pandemic and its effects on tourist demand.
Following the end of the pandemic crisis, global supply chains and war drove the world economy to a path of high inflation and high interest rates. More recently, terrorism, which, despite being of a limited and regional spectrum, also highlighted the fragile situation that tourist industries face [4,27]. However, despite the number of events potentially putting the industry demand at risk, statistical data show a recovery in world tourism [6], closing the gap to the period before the pandemic.
This study used a co-word analysis [63] to analyse the thematic field affecting tourist and hospitality demand, aiming to identify trends and emerging areas. A thematic analysis was carried out based on a retrospective analysis, starting with the most recent period (2022–2023), followed by the analysis of the 2020–2021 period, ending in the 2018–2019 period. Based on the 2022–2023 period, the five most relevant themes identified were “COVID-19” highly emphasised in the literature, “demand forecast”, “sustainability”, and “tourism demand”, with “COVID-19” standing out as the “driving theme” (a theme with greater centrality and scientific density). These themes highlight the effects of external factors on the industry, on tourist demand [30], and its forecasting [57]. Additionally, the use of “machine learning”, “big data”, and technology, emerging as key themes in tourism and hospitality demand data from the literature [58,59,60], emphasise the critical importance of demand forecast to the industry.
The role of “sustainability”, “climate change”, “sustainable tourism”, and related themes in recent years shows the path of the research field. Transforming events such as the ones the industry passed in the last few years have the potential to reshape the way people, communities, and companies behave. Sustainable tourism was addressed early in the literature in the 2000s, mostly focused on strategic planning [70], environmental management and ecological sustainability [19], and fire disasters in tourist regions [71]. However, the emphasis on sustainable tourism gained traction with the pressure of overtourism, particularly due to environmental challenges [72], such as the degradation of marine ecosystems, environmental resources, such as groundwater ecosystems, and pollution [19,73,74]. The obtained results show that the post-pandemic period is characerised by a reassessment of “sustainability” as a driver of tourist and hospitality demand, which highlights the potential threats the industry faces.
These themes are highly aligned with tourist regions and hospitality firms’ image and with customer behaviour. Tourist customers expect authentic experiences [54]. However, firms are expected to be environmentally sustainable and provide innovative services at the same time. Therefore, successful tourist regions and firms would be the ones capable of complying with both aspects, providing innovative services with a reduced environmental footprint at the same time. Additionally, customer behaviour also depends on economic stability [55], financial circumstances, income, and tourist service prices [53], which are critical to forecasting demand and optimising hotel performance [57]. From a customer’s perspective, price is what a person gives to obtain a product or service, and people tend to evaluate purchases on the basis of how they assess prices [75]. Therefore, despite responding differently according to the stimulus [76], travellers choose them based on a complex network of factors [77] and the compounding effect of risk, physical or financial, sustainable practices from companies and regions, as well as companies’ innovative services, and marketing and branding strategies influence in a decisive way potential customers’ decision where to go and to stay. Companies, regions, and policy makers addressing these issues will be able to tackle the negative effects of tourist demand in downturn periods.
While there are similarities with previous research, particularly in the recognition of key themes such as the impact of economic crises [38,78], health pandemics [30], sustainability [79], and the role of technology [80], this study presents also primary differences in the scope, focus, and methodological approaches. This study provides a comprehensive and heuristic approach to understanding the interaction between external factors and their implications for future research in tourism and hospitality demand, emphasising the importance of adaptability and continuous innovation in a dynamic and uncertain global environment.
The tourism and hospitality industries are crucial for economic development. However, they are also highly sensitive to external shocks, which can drastically change demand patterns. The increasing emphasis on sustainability stresses the importance of eco-efficient business practices and resource conservation and underscores a research line targeting how sustainable tourism practices are implemented and their long-term impacts on both the environment and the hospitality industry. On the other hand, technological advancements, particularly in machine learning and big data, are transforming how demand is forecasted and managed. This research area seems to be established to a continuous development, as more sophisticated models that can better predict and respond to dynamic market conditions evolve. Moreover, due to the role of economic stability and social factors, such as income levels, consumer behaviour, and safety perceptions on tourism, future research could investigate how these factors influence each other in different contexts.
Consequently, regarding the theoretical consequences of this study, results show several relevant themes for future research, with critical effects on the management of tourist and hospitality firms. On the one hand, the recent reassessment and emphasis on sustainable tourism demonstrate that this topic could be among the critical drivers of tourist demand, particularly the negative effects of overtourism, the degradation of environmental ecosystems, and tourism as a source of environmental ecosystem recovery. On the other hand, the use of “machine learning”, “deep learning”, and “big data”, joined with recent developments in Artificial Intelligence, seem to be vital in forecasting tourist and hospitality demand. Hence, the use of these technologies by regions and companies in forecasting demand, targeting customer behaviour, implementing marketing and branding strategies, and targeting purchasing intentions, through electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) and online reviews, are set to drive future research in tourist and hospitality management.
Despite the enlightenment this study brought, it presents some limitations that must be acknowledged, particularly the use of a heuristic analysis to predict future research paths. The dynamic nature of global events means that the industry is continuously facing uncertainty and unforeseen occurrences, such as new economic crises, health pandemics, or geopolitical changes, potentially derailing current forecasts. Consequently, researchers and industry stakeholders must remain adaptable and continuously update their models and strategies to account for these potential disruptions. Departing from this perspective, future research should also consider more robust frameworks that can better address the volatility and uncertainty in tourism and hospitality sections.
The co-word analysis provides interesting and relevant information about the unit in the analysis. However, an automated technique suffers the shortcoming of potentially omitting relevant information. On the other hand, relevant data can also be missed due to the use of a single database as a source of information. Despite these potential limitations, given the nature of the analysis, the authors believe that the methods used fully address the proposed objective. Moreover, the WoS database, due to its coverage and reliable metrics, provides strong evidence of the robustness of the methods [67,68] to assure the coherence of the obtained results.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; methodology, J.R.S. and C.S.; software, J.R.S.; validation, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; formal analysis, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; investigation, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; resources, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; data curation, J.R.S.; writing—original draft preparation, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; writing—review and editing, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F.; visualization, J.R.S.; supervision, C.S.; project administration, C.S.; funding acquisition, C.S., J.R.S. and L.F. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This work was funded by National Funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), I.P., within the scope of the project UIDB/05583/2020 and DOI identifier https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/05583/2020. Furthermore, we would like to thank the Research Centre in Digital Services (CISeD) and the Instituto Politécnico de Viseu for their support. NECE and this work are supported by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia), I.P., project reference UIDB/04630/2020 and DOI identifier https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04630/2020.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is not applicable to this article.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Societies 14 00207 g001
Figure 1. Thematic map 2022–2023.
Figure 1. Thematic map 2022–2023.
Societies 14 00207 g001
Societies 14 00207 g002
Figure 2. Thematic map 2018–2019.
Figure 2. Thematic map 2018–2019.
Societies 14 00207 g002
Table 1. COVID-19 theme.
Table 1. COVID-19 theme.
Theme2022–20232020–20212018–2019
COVID-19KeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.
COVID-19MotorCOVID-19Emerging--
Airbnbclimate change
domestic tourism
tourism industry
seasonality
Table 2. Sustainability theme.
Table 2. Sustainability theme.
Theme2022–20232020–20212018–2019
sustainabilityKeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.
sustainabilityBasicsustainabilityMotor--
climate changesustainable tourism
sustainable tourismrural tourism
rural tourismseasonality
sustainable developmentecotourism
hospitalitysocial media
developmentcultural tourism
Table 3. Demand forecast theme.
Table 3. Demand forecast theme.
Theme2022–20232020–20212018–2019
demand forecastKeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.
demand forecastNichedemand forecastEmerging--
machine learninghospitality
deep learningrevenue management
revenue managementbig data
machine learning
Table 4. Tourism demand theme.
Table 4. Tourism demand theme.
Theme2022–20232020–20212018–2019
tourism demandKeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.KeywordsClass.
tourism demandDecliningtourism demandBasictourism demandBasic
economic growtheconomic growthdemand forecast
seasonality
revenue management
big data
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Sampaio, C.; Sebastião, J.R.; Farinha, L. Hospitality and Tourism Demand: Exploring Industry Shifts, Themes, and Trends. Societies 2024, 14, 207. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14100207

AMA Style

Sampaio C, Sebastião JR, Farinha L. Hospitality and Tourism Demand: Exploring Industry Shifts, Themes, and Trends. Societies. 2024; 14(10):207. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14100207

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sampaio, Carlos, João Renato Sebastião, and Luís Farinha. 2024. "Hospitality and Tourism Demand: Exploring Industry Shifts, Themes, and Trends" Societies 14, no. 10: 207. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14100207

APA Style

Sampaio, C., Sebastião, J. R., & Farinha, L. (2024). Hospitality and Tourism Demand: Exploring Industry Shifts, Themes, and Trends. Societies, 14(10), 207. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc14100207

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