The Age in Swimming of Champions in World Championships (1994–2013) and Olympic Games (1992–2012): A Cross-Sectional Data Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Ethics Approval
2.2. Data Sampling and Data Analysis
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. MultiLayer Perceptron Model
3.2. Impact of Predictor Variables on Speed
3.3. Changes in the Ages of the Champions
3.4. Changes in Swimming Performances across the Years
4. Discussion
4.1. Unchanged Age of Peak Swimming Performance in Champions over Time
4.2. Younger Swimmers Were Faster in Longer Race Distances
4.3. Female Champions Were Younger than Male Champions
4.4. Increase of Peak Swimming Performance across the Years
4.5. Strengths and Limitations of this Study and Implications for Future Research
4.6. Practical Applications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Importance | Normalized Importance |
---|---|---|
Contest (i.e., World Championship versus Olympic Games) | 0.001 | 0.5% |
Stroke (i.e., freestyle, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly, and individual medley) | 0.265 | 100.0% |
Sex | 0.109 | 41.1% |
Country | 0.168 | 63.5% |
Year | 0.023 | 8.8% |
Age | 0.190 | 71.5% |
Parameters | F-Statistics | p-Value |
---|---|---|
Intercept | 23.958 | <0.0001 |
World Championship versus Olympic Games | 1.564 | 0.211 |
Contest | 603.892 | <0.0001 |
Sex | 937.596 | <0.0001 |
Country | 7.685 | <0.0001 |
Year | 46.921 | <0.0001 |
Age | 167.531 | <0.0001 |
Parameter | Estimate | SE | T | p | 95% Confidence Interval | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lower Limit | Upper Limit | |||||
Intercept | −3.682 | 0.741 | −4.967 | <0.0001 | −5.135 | −2.229 |
World Championship | −0.006 | 0.005 | −1.251 | 0.211 | −0.015 | 0.003 |
Freestyle | 0.245 | 0.007 | 35.561 | <0.0001 | 0.232 | 0.259 |
Breaststroke | −0.047 | 0.008 | −5.643 | <0.0001 | −0.063 | −0.030 |
Backstroke | 0.138 | 0.008 | 16.670 | <0.0001 | 0.122 | 0.154 |
Butterfly | 0.163 | 0.008 | 19.601 | <0.0001 | 0.146 | 0.179 |
Females | −0.147 | 0.005 | −30.620 | <0.0001 | −0.156 | −0.137 |
(Country = ALG) | 0.252 | 0.077 | 3.266 | 0.001 | 0.101 | 0.403 |
(Country = ARG) | −0.038 | 0.062 | −0.616 | 0.538 | −0.161 | 0.084 |
(Country = AUS) | 0.021 | 0.030 | 0.700 | 0.484 | −0.037 | 0.078 |
(Country = AUT) | 0.011 | 0.037 | 0.284 | 0.777 | −0.063 | 0.084 |
(Country = BAH) | 0.300 | 0.092 | 3.255 | 0.001 | 0.119 | 0.481 |
(Country = BAR) | 0.218 | 0.127 | 1.715 | 0.086 | −0.031 | 0.467 |
(Country = BEL) | −0.014 | 0.046 | −0.311 | 0.756 | −0.105 | 0.076 |
(Country = BLR) | 0.127 | 0.041 | 3.091 | 0.002 | 0.046 | 0.207 |
(Country = BRA) | 0.140 | 0.034 | 4.164 | <0.0001 | 0.074 | 0.206 |
(Country = BUL) | 0.069 | 0.127 | 0.542 | 0.588 | −0.181 | 0.318 |
(Country = CAN) | −0.014 | 0.031 | −0.451 | 0.652 | −0.075 | 0.047 |
(Country = CHI) | −0.196 | 0.068 | −2.876 | 0.004 | −0.330 | −0.062 |
(Country = CHN) | 0.023 | 0.030 | 0.758 | 0.449 | −0.037 | 0.083 |
(Country = CRC) | −0.093 | 0.045 | −2.078 | 0.038 | −0.182 | −0.005 |
(Country = CRO) | 0.134 | 0.046 | 2.912 | 0.004 | 0.044 | 0.224 |
(Country = CUB) | 0.060 | 0.053 | 1.136 | 0.256 | −0.043 | 0.163 |
(Country = CZE) | −0.031 | 0.050 | −0.625 | 0.532 | −0.130 | 0.067 |
(Country = DEN) | −0.011 | 0.034 | −0.322 | 0.747 | −0.077 | 0.055 |
(Country = ESP) | −0.044 | 0.034 | −1.288 | 0.198 | −0.110 | 0.023 |
(Country = EST) | 0.232 | 0.127 | 1.825 | 0.068 | −0.017 | 0.482 |
(Country = EUN) | 0.078 | 0.039 | 1.981 | 0.048 | 0.001 | 0.154 |
(Country = FAR) | −0.180 | 0.069 | −2.633 | 0.009 | −0.315 | −0.046 |
(Country = FIN) | 0.053 | 0.046 | 1.153 | 0.249 | −0.037 | 0.143 |
(Country = FRA) | 0.043 | 0.031 | 1.394 | 0.163 | −0.018 | 0.104 |
(Country = GBR) | −0.027 | 0.030 | −0.887 | 0.375 | −0.086 | 0.032 |
(Country = GER) | −0.004 | 0.030 | −0.142 | 0.887 | −0.063 | 0.055 |
(Country = GRE) | −0.047 | 0.042 | −1.113 | 0.266 | −0.130 | 0.036 |
(Country = HUN) | 0.008 | 0.031 | 0.261 | 0.794 | −0.052 | 0.068 |
(Country = IRL) | −0.078 | 0.058 | −1.340 | 0.180 | −0.192 | 0.036 |
(Country = ISL) | 0.017 | 0.077 | 0.226 | 0.821 | −0.134 | 0.169 |
(Country = ISR) | 0.062 | 0.055 | 1.125 | 0.261 | −0.046 | 0.170 |
(Country = ITA) | −0.036 | 0.031 | −1.167 | 0.243 | −0.097 | 0.025 |
(Country = JAM) | −0.009 | 0.092 | −0.093 | 0.926 | −0.190 | 0.172 |
(Country = JPN) | −0.003 | 0.030 | −0.090 | 0.928 | −0.061 | 0.056 |
(Country = KAZ) | −0.005 | 0.077 | −0.067 | 0.947 | −0.157 | 0.147 |
(Country = KEN) | 0.147 | 0.069 | 2.135 | 0.033 | 0.012 | 0.281 |
(Country = KOR) | −0.044 | 0.045 | −0.979 | 0.328 | −0.133 | 0.044 |
(Country = LTU) | 0.100 | 0.046 | 2.164 | 0.031 | 0.009 | 0.190 |
(Country = MAS) | 0.063 | 0.127 | 0.497 | 0.619 | −0.186 | 0.312 |
(Country = MDA) | −0.051 | 0.092 | −0.551 | 0.582 | −0.232 | 0.130 |
(Country = NED) | 0.115 | 0.032 | 3.625 | <0.0001 | 0.053 | 0.177 |
(Country = NOR) | −0.015 | 0.049 | −0.302 | 0.763 | −0.110 | 0.081 |
(Country = NZL) | −0.058 | 0.037 | −1.555 | 0.120 | −0.131 | 0.015 |
(Country = PNG) | 0.100 | 0.127 | 0.783 | 0.434 | −0.150 | 0.349 |
(Country = POL) | −0.004 | 0.033 | −0.110 | 0.912 | −0.068 | 0.061 |
(Country = PUR) | 0.176 | 0.059 | 3.020 | 0.003 | 0.062 | 0.291 |
(Country = ROU) | −0.066 | 0.034 | −1.957 | 0.050 | −0.132 | 0.000 |
(Country = RSA) | 0.071 | 0.033 | 2.187 | 0.029 | 0.007 | 0.135 |
(Country = RUS) | 0.031 | 0.031 | 1.011 | 0.312 | −0.029 | 0.091 |
(Country = SIN) | 0.124 | 0.127 | 0.975 | 0.330 | −0.125 | 0.373 |
(Country = SLO) | −0.043 | 0.047 | −0.912 | 0.362 | −0.135 | 0.050 |
(Country = SRB) | 0.065 | 0.055 | 1.176 | 0.240 | −0.043 | 0.173 |
(Country = SUI) | −0.091 | 0.049 | −1.872 | 0.061 | −0.187 | 0.004 |
(Country = SUR) | 0.079 | 0.092 | 0.855 | 0.393 | −0.102 | 0.260 |
(Country = SVK) | 0.073 | 0.041 | 1.790 | 0.074 | −0.007 | 0.154 |
(Country = SWE) | 0.133 | 0.033 | 3.986 | <0.0001 | 0.068 | 0.199 |
(Country = TCH) | −0.088 | 0.127 | −0.693 | 0.488 | −0.338 | 0.161 |
(Country = TPE) | 0.006 | 0.127 | 0.050 | 0.960 | −0.243 | 0.256 |
(Country = TRI) | 0.250 | 0.055 | 4.547 | <0.0001 | 0.142 | 0.358 |
(Country = TUN) | −0.129 | 0.041 | −3.168 | 0.002 | −0.208 | −0.049 |
(Country = UKR) | 0.019 | 0.033 | 0.585 | 0.559 | −0.045 | 0.084 |
(Country = USA) | 0.033 | 0.029 | 1.142 | 0.254 | −0.024 | 0.091 |
(Country = VEN) | 0.072 | 0.055 | 1.301 | 0.193 | −0.036 | 0.180 |
(Country = YUG) | 0.194 | 0.127 | 1.522 | 0.128 | −0.056 | 0.443 |
(Country = ZIM) reference | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Year | 0.003 | 0.000 | 6.850 | <0.0001 | 0.002 | 0.003 |
Age | 0.009 | 0.002 | 12.943 | <0.0001 | 0.008 | 0.010 |
Stroke and Distance | Sex | 1994 | Age | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Freestyle | ||||
50 m | Women | † | 24.0 ± 2.1 | † |
Men | † | 22.6 ± 1.5 | † | |
100 m | Women | † | 22.8 ± 1.3 | † |
Men | † | 24.2 ± 1.0 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 21.7 ± 1.2 | † |
Men | † | 22. ± 0.7 | † | |
400 m | Women | 21.6 ± 0.9 | – | 21.6 ± 0.9 |
Men | † | 22.3 ± 1.4 | † | |
800 m | Women | † | 20.9 ± 1.1 | † |
Men | † | 21.8 ± 3.1 | † | |
1500 m | Women | † | 21.8 ± 4.7 | † |
Men | † | 21.9 ± 1.1 | † | |
Breaststroke | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 21.3 ± 1.6 | † |
Men | 23.0 ± 2.2 | – | 25.3 ± 3.8 | |
200 m | Women | † | 21.8 ± 4.7 | † |
Men | † | 22.9 ± 0.3 | † | |
Backstroke | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 21.4 ± 0.9 | † |
Men | † | 23.2 ± 1.2 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 20.3 ± 1.2 | † |
Men | † | 23.2 ± 1.0 | † | |
Butterfly | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 22.2 ± 1.2 | † |
Men | † | 22.5 ± 2.6 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 20.0 ± 2.7 | † |
Men | † | 21.0 ± 2.3 | † | |
Individual Medley | ||||
200 m | Women | † | 21.2 ± 0.8 | † |
Men | † | 23.7 ± 1.5 | † | |
400 m | Women | † | 20.4 ± 1.0 | † |
Men | † | 22.1 ± 0.9 | † |
Stroke and Distance | Sex | 1992 | Age | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Freestyle | ||||
50 m | Women | † | 26.9 ± 5.1 | † |
Men | † | 27.1 ± 3.6 | † | |
100 m | Women | † | 23.3 ± 2.0 | † |
Men | † | 24.3 ± 1.0 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 21.3 ± 1.6 | † |
Men | † | 22.5 ± 0.5 | † | |
400 m | Women | † | 21.7 ± 1.0 | † |
Men | † | 22.3 ± 1.0 | † | |
800 m | Women | † | 21.2 ± 1.8 | † |
Men | † | 22.3 ± 0.8 | † | |
1500 m | Women | – | – | – |
Men | † | 22.3 ± 0.8 | † | |
Breaststroke | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 21.5 ± 1.0 | † |
Men | † | 26.4 ± 3.3 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 20.3 ± 4.5 | † |
Men | † | 23.3 ± 1.6 | † | |
Backstroke | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 18.0 ± 2.3 | † |
Men | † | 23.8 ± 1.2 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 21.2 ± 0.8 | † |
Men | † | 23.3 ± 1.2 | † | |
Butterfly | ||||
100 m | Women | † | 23.0 ± 2.9 | † |
Men | † | 23.5 ± 1.0 | † | |
200 m | Women | † | 21.7 ± 1.4 | † |
Men | † | 21.3 ± 3.2 | † | |
Individual Medley | ||||
200 m | Women | † | 22.0 ± 1.3 | † |
Men | † | 23.7 ± 2.1 | † | |
400 m | Women | † | 20.0 ± 0.9 | † |
Men | † | 22.7 ± 1.4 | † |
Stroke and Distance | Sex | B | SE (B) | Stand. ß | T | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freestyle | ||||||
50 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.693 | 2.206 | 0.070 |
Men | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.846 | 3.997 | 0.007 | |
100 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.755 | 2.747 | 0.033 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.768 | 3.293 | 0.017 | |
200 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.694 | 2.844 | 0.029 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.846 | 2.797 | 0.031 | |
400 m | Women | 0.005 | 0.002 | 1.282 | 2.335 | 0.058 |
Men | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.259 | 0.672 | 0.527 | |
800 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.985 | 7.017 | <0.001 |
Men | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.593 | 1.754 | 0.130 | |
1500 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.906 | 4.285 | 0.013 |
Men | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.514 | 1.478 | 0.190 | |
Breaststroke | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.943 | 7.108 | <0.001 |
Men | 0.005 | 0.001 | 1.126 | 6.187 | 0.001 | |
200 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.000 | 1.022 | 8.260 | <0.001 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.926 | 9.188 | <0.001 | |
Backstroke | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.800 | 3.970 | 0.007 |
Men | 0.006 | 0.001 | 1.003 | 8.373 | <0.001 | |
200 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.730 | 2.646 | 0.038 |
Men | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.854 | 3.346 | 0.016 | |
Butterfly | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.905 | 9.760 | <0.001 |
Men | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0.827 | 3.590 | 0.011 | |
200 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.769 | 3.002 | 0.024 |
Men | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.687 | 2.049 | 0.086 | |
Individual medley | ||||||
200 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.754 | 2.930 | 0.026 |
Men | 0.006 | 0.001 | 1.037 | 4.527 | 0.004 | |
400 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.902 | 4.589 | 0.004 |
Men | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.761 | 2.697 | 0.036 |
Stroke and Distance | Sex | B | SE (B) | Stand. ß | T | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freestyle | ||||||
50 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.884 | 2.822 | 0.067 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.826 | 2.862 | 0.064 | |
100 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.914 | 8.164 | 0.004 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.909 | 3.496 | 0.040 | |
200 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.737 | 2.468 | 0.090 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.923 | 4.636 | 0.019 | |
400 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.000 | 1.010 | 4.756 | 0.018 |
Men | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.847 | 2.710 | 0.073 | |
800 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.891 | 3.354 | 0.044 |
Men | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.483 | 1.083 | 0.358 | |
1500 m | Women | – | – | – | – | – |
Men | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.898 | 2.561 | 0.083 | |
Breaststroke | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.000 | 1.003 | 8.998 | 0.003 |
Men | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.758 | 5.260 | 0.013 | |
200 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.001 | 1.053 | 3.885 | 0.030 |
Men | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.798 | 2.410 | 0.095 | |
Backstroke | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.839 | 2.966 | 0.059 |
Men | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.769 | 4.159 | 0.025 | |
200 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.684 | 1.604 | 0.207 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.961 | 6.540 | 0.007 | |
Butterfly | ||||||
100 m | Women | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.778 | 2.057 | 0.132 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.844 | 4.513 | 0.020 | |
200 m | Women | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.958 | 5.700 | 0.011 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 1.030 | 3.669 | 0.035 | |
Individual medley | ||||||
200 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.500 | 2.025 | 0.136 |
Men | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.956 | 6.424 | 0.008 | |
400 m | Women | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.696 | 6.724 | 0.007 |
Men | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.962 | 5.072 | 0.015 |
© 2016 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons by Attribution (CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Knechtle, B.; Bragazzi, N.L.; König, S.; Nikolaidis, P.T.; Wild, S.; Rosemann, T.; Rüst, C.A. The Age in Swimming of Champions in World Championships (1994–2013) and Olympic Games (1992–2012): A Cross-Sectional Data Analysis. Sports 2016, 4, 17. https://doi.org/10.3390/sports4010017
Knechtle B, Bragazzi NL, König S, Nikolaidis PT, Wild S, Rosemann T, Rüst CA. The Age in Swimming of Champions in World Championships (1994–2013) and Olympic Games (1992–2012): A Cross-Sectional Data Analysis. Sports. 2016; 4(1):17. https://doi.org/10.3390/sports4010017
Chicago/Turabian StyleKnechtle, Beat, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Stefan König, Pantelis Theodoros Nikolaidis, Stefanie Wild, Thomas Rosemann, and Christoph Alexander Rüst. 2016. "The Age in Swimming of Champions in World Championships (1994–2013) and Olympic Games (1992–2012): A Cross-Sectional Data Analysis" Sports 4, no. 1: 17. https://doi.org/10.3390/sports4010017