Bayesian Diagnosis of Occlusion Myocardial Infarction: A Case-Based Clinical Analysis

Background: Millimetric ST-segment elevation (STEMI) rules miss more than half of angiographic coronary occlusions. Re-casting acute infarction as Occlusion MI (OMI) versus Non-Occlusion MI (NOMI) and embedding that paradigm in Bayesian reasoning could shorten time to reperfusion while limiting unnecessary activations. Methods: We derived age- and sex-specific baseline prevalences of OMI from national emergency-department surveillance data and contemporary angiographic series. Pre-test probabilities were adjusted with published likelihood ratios (LRs) for chest-pain descriptors and clinical risk factors, then updated again with either (1) the stand-alone accuracy of ST-elevation or (2) the pooled accuracy of a broader OMI ECG spectrum. Two decision thresholds were prespecified: post-test probability >10% to trigger catheterization and >75% to justify fibrinolysis when angiography was unavailable. The framework was applied to five consecutive real-world cases that had elicited diagnostic disagreement in clinical practice. Results: The Bayesian scaffold re-classified three “NSTEMI” tracings as intermediate or high-probability OMI (post-test 27–65%) and prompted immediate reperfusion; each was confirmed as a totally occluded artery. A fourth patient with crushing pain and a normal ECG retained a 17% post-ECG probability and was later found to have an occluded circumflex. The fifth case, an apparent South-African-Flag pattern, initially rose to 75% but fell after a normal bedside echo and normal troponins. Conclusions: Layering pre-test context with sign-specific LRs transforms ECG interpretation from a binary rule into a transparent probability calculation. The OMI/NOMI Bayesian framework detected occult occlusions that classic STEMI criteria missed.