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Minerals 2016, 6(3), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/min6030095

China’s Rare Earths Supply Forecast in 2025: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

1,2,* , 1,2
and
1,2,*
1
School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
2
Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100083, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Michael Hitch
Received: 17 July 2016 / Revised: 20 August 2016 / Accepted: 14 September 2016 / Published: 21 September 2016
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Abstract

The supply of rare earths in China has been the focus of significant attention in recent years. Due to changes in regulatory policies and the development of strategic emerging industries, it is critical to investigate the scenario of rare earth supplies in 2025. To address this question, this paper constructed a dynamic computable equilibrium (DCGE) model to forecast the production, domestic supply, and export of China’s rare earths in 2025. Based on our analysis, production will increase by 10.8%–12.6% and achieve 116,335–118,260 tons of rare-earth oxide (REO) in 2025, based on recent extraction control during 2011–2016. Moreover, domestic supply and export will be 75,081–76,800 tons REO and 38,797–39,400 tons REO, respectively. The technological improvements on substitution and recycling will significantly decrease the supply and mining activities of rare earths. From a policy perspective, we found that the elimination of export regulations, including export quotas and export taxes, does have a negative impact on China’s future domestic supply of rare earths. The policy conflicts between the increase in investment in strategic emerging industries, and the increase in resource and environmental taxes on rare earths will also affect China’s rare earths supply in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: rare earths; computable general equilibrium; supply forecast; China rare earths; computable general equilibrium; supply forecast; China
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Ge, J.; Lei, Y.; Zhao, L. China’s Rare Earths Supply Forecast in 2025: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Minerals 2016, 6, 95.

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